2/15-16: Slopocalypse or Bust

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 0z AI EPS also shows snow on both the mean & median.

Something is wrong with AI models

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

yup that’s a rainstorm on Feb 15th!  

Yup that was 8 days with high temperatures in the 10s we just had! It snowed south of Tampa. 

It used to rain all the time mid Winter in the 1960s and 70s. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS

[DDweatherman]

Knew 6z AI would be its usual step back just from peeking at h5 maps showing slightly less interaction of streams. 6z almost always sucks.

[aldie 22]

Is the GRAF model still showing a blizzard?

[DDweatherman]

Why do we always end up back at the shit gfs showing the solution we want the most?  there’s been good trends north on many models, but gfs is coldest at the surface

[WhiteoutMD]

Guidance is converging on a perfect track rainstorm on pd weekend lol. perhaps another chapter in my book.

This was my thinking as well. Bummer


.

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yup that was 8 days with high temperatures in the 10s we just had! It snowed south of Tampa. 

It used to rain all the time mid Winter in the 1960s and 70s. 

NOT WITH THAT TRACK ON FEB 15!!! 

Dude we had this damn debate a few days ago. Yea it was cold, when we had a perfect pacific epo pna ridge. Of course it was cold go back and look at the flow, air was coming straight out of the arctic cross polar and dumping into the Eastern US. And Utah was torching with highs in the 60s!  We’ve had that kind of thing before and it was even COLDER!  Look at 1977 and 1994!  We’ve had high temps near 0 in past years with that kind of direct arctic discharge with snowcover.  30 years ago what we just had would have been even colder Chuck.  
 

And the globe didn’t suddenly get colder we were juts lucky to be under the tiny bit if cold real estate!  look at the global heights from Jan 25-Feb 5. 70% is still RED Chuck.  
 

For the last time this isn’t about what happens when we are lucky enough to have a perfect pac pattern that dumps arctic air over us and we’re in the 30% of the world that’s blue.  I know we can still snow them. But what happens the rest of the time???  What about the 70% when we’re under the red?  When thickness are now 10-15m higher in the same pattern. You don’t think that makes a difference. You don’t think if the whole thicknesses were a little lower tomorrow or might not tip the scales from rain to snow for some places in this forum?  Have you looked at the soundings tomorrow?  The whole damn column is cold enough except the boundary where it’s 35-38 degrees.  Guess what layer is warming fastest!  The boundary. How can you possibly think it’s not making a difference with the marginal storms?  So many of our past snows were barely cold enough because we’ve always been on the southern edge of where it snows much in winter.  
 

If you’re going to argue warming isn’t hurting us then you need to answer these 3 questions. 

1) where did all the marginal snows during hostile pacific patterns go?  Why don’t we get snows from perfect track waves during warm patterns anymore?   Because we used to. I know. I have a data base of all of them. So what happened?  why are perfect track waves doing hostile pac patterns juts perfect track rain now?  What changed? 

2) why has the median and mean snowfall for DC and Baltimore been declining consistently for 100 years and accelerating in the last 50. Explain it.  Baltimore used to average almost 25” of snow and now it’s 19 and likely to fall closer to 16 when it updates next decade!  Why?  What happened to 30% of our snow? 
 

3) since you’re saying warming isn’t hurting us in these marginal Situations then explain this. All the snowstorms we got during otherwise warm periods from a perfect track wave in the past when it was barely cold enough to snow…take early March 1962 for example. Some places just NW of 95 got 10” but with temps of 33-34 degrees while it was snowing.  It just snowed hard enough to overcome the very marginal temps. But it’s warmer now. How would that still be snow if you apply today’s temps to that storm. Now it’s 35-36!  The whole column is warmer too. Which is worse because it was probably isothermal so now it has 5000 feet of 35 to overcome instead of 33. How is that still a snowstorm?  
 

Or are you saying it’s not warmer?  That thicknesses haven’t increased. That thermometers are broken and they’re all lying to us?  
 

because you can’t have it both ways. So much of our snow in the past came when it was barely cold enough to snow. So you cannot say it’s warmer but don’t worry that’s not hurting us. You can’t because if you warm is at all we lose so much of our past snow. 1-2 degrees F warmer and so many of those storms I documented get worse. Become 3” instead of 5”. A 3” wet slop becomes just rain!  And suddenly it only snows during cold regimes and you say warming has nothing to do with it which makes absolutely no sense logically. How can you warm what was already a barely cold enough to snow equation and say it’s no big deal to our snowfall?  Explain that Chuck. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, DDweatherman said:

Why do we always end up back at the shit gfs showing the solution we want the most?  there’s been good trends north on many models, but gfs is coldest at the surface

Because it has a cold bias???  Among many other problems lol 

[DDweatherman]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

NOT WITH THAT TRACK ON FEB 15!!! 

Dude we had this damn debate a few days ago. Yea it was cold, when we had a perfect pacific epo pna ridge. Of course it was cold go back and look at the flow, air was coming straight out of the arctic cross polar and dumping into the Eastern US. And Utah was torching with highs in the 60s!  We’ve had that kind of thing before and it was even COLDER!  Look at 1977 and 1994!  We’ve had high temps near 0 in past years with that kind of direct arctic discharge with snowcover.  30 years ago what we just had would have been even colder Chuck.  
 

And the globe didn’t suddenly get colder we were juts lucky to be under the tiny bit if cold real estate!  look at the global heights from Jan 25-Feb 5. 70% is still RED Chuck.  
 

For the last time this isn’t about what happens when we are lucky enough to have a perfect pac pattern that dumps arctic air over us and we’re in the 30% of the world that’s blue.  I know we can still snow them. But what happens the rest of the time???  What about the 70% when we’re under the red?  When thickness are now 10-15m higher in the same pattern. You don’t think that makes a difference. You don’t think if the whole thicknesses were a little lower tomorrow or might not tip the scales from rain to snow for some places in this forum?  Have you looked at the soundings tomorrow?  The whole damn column is cold enough except the boundary where it’s 35-38 degrees.  Guess what layer is warming fastest!  The boundary. How can you possibly think it’s not making a difference with the marginal storms?  So many of our past snows were barely cold enough because we’ve always been on the southern edge of where it snows much in winter.  
 

If you’re going to argue warming isn’t hurting us then you need to answer these 3 questions. 

1) where did all the marginal snows during hostile pacific patterns go?  Why don’t we get snows from perfect track waves during warm patterns anymore?   Because we used to. I know. I have a data base of all of them. So what happened?  why are perfect track waves doing hostile pac patterns juts perfect track rain now?  What changed? 

2) why has the median and mean snowfall for DC and Baltimore been declining consistently for 100 years and accelerating in the last 50. Explain it.  Baltimore used to average almost 25” of snow and now it’s 19 and likely to fall closer to 16 when it updates next decade!  Why?  What happened to 30% of our snow? 
 

3) since you’re saying warming isn’t hurting us in these marginal Situations then explain this. All the snowstorms we got during otherwise warm periods from a perfect track wave in the past when it was barely cold enough to snow…take early March 1962 for example. Some places just NW of 95 got 10” but with temps of 33-34 degrees while it was snowing.  It just snowed hard enough to overcome the very marginal temps. But it’s warmer now. How would that still be snow if you apply today’s temps to that storm. Now it’s 35-36!  The whole column is warmer too. Which is worse because it was probably isothermal so now it has 5000 feet of 35 to overcome instead of 33. How is that still a snowstorm?  
 

Or are you saying it’s not warmer?  That thicknesses haven’t increased. That thermometers are broken and they’re all lying to us?  
 

because you can’t have it both ways. So much of our snow in the past came when it was barely cold enough to snow. So you cannot say it’s warmer but don’t worry that’s not hurting us. You can’t because if you warm is at all we lose so much of our past snow. 1-2 degrees F warmer and so many of those storms I documented get worse. Become 3” instead of 5”. A 3” wet slop becomes just rain!  And suddenly it only snows during cold regimes and you say warming has nothing to do with it which makes absolutely no sense logically. How can you warm what was already a barely cold enough to snow equation and say it’s no big deal to our snowfall?  Explain that Chuck. 

There’s some good content here but for you to write this type of post on a Saturday morning during coffee time addressing the wall that is Chuck, you need a bourbon and a Prozac. 

[TSSN+]

Nam lol 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Nam lol 

Wow!!!!

[mitchnick]

How I wish the Nam and Gfs would shove it right up the USB port of the Euro on this one.

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Something is wrong with AI models

The snow alg on wxbell is flawed for the AIFS ensembles. It seems to count anything remotely close as snow. I tried to figure out what’s wrong but it just seems like someone accidentally set the freezing temp as 35 instead of 32 lol. It’s not the model it’s the clown snow map wxbell makes. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

How I wish the Nam and Gfs would shove it right up the USB port of the Euro on this one.

To be fair the nam and euro were pretty identical the last 2 runs. We don’t know what the euro will show this run yet!  

[MN Transplant]

I haven't been paying any attention to this, but this morning's HRRR has me in the upper 50s Sunday 1pm while the NAM 3k has me in the upper 30s.  So, I see everything is locked down.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

I haven't been paying any attention to this, but this morning's HRRR has me in the upper 50s Sunday 1pm while the NAM 3k has me in the upper 30s.  So, I see everything is locked down.

Hrrr past hour 18 is as we know suspect 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Hrrr past hour 18 is as we know suspect 

Past hour 6***

[TSSN+]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Past minute 6***

Fixed 

[MN Transplant]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Hrrr past hour 18 is as we know suspect 

Yeah, the HRRR is on a crazy island.  I might put the NAM there too with the 1"+ QPF results.

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Yeah, the HRRR is on a crazy island.  I might put the NAM there too with the 1"+ QPF results.

I have a hunch the gfs might look kinda like the Nam in a bit here. 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

I have a hunch the gfs might look kinda like the Nam in a bit here. 

Let’s hope for some model consensus today.

[NorthArlington101]

Did nobody post the 3k? Wtf?

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Did nobody post the 3k? Wtf?

It’s ok down here.  But northern crew gotta love it. 

[mitchnick]

We know how the Nams nailed thermals for 1/25, maybe they're right this time.

P.s. I know there's more to it than thermals (e.g. storm intensity, etc.) , but you should still get my point.

[mitchnick]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It’s ok down here.  But northern crew gotta love it. 

It has the highest elevations zeroed in for sure.

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Did nobody post the 3k? Wtf?

12k has similar totals in the same locations.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It has the highest elevations zeroed in for sure.

It’s the NAM tho.  Altho it’s supposed to be deadly with thermals.   None of these models are to be trusted. 

[psuhoffman]

[Weather Will]

WB 3K NAM:  let's go!!!!! Compared to 6Z