2026-2027 Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Closing in on +4c in Nino 1+2

[EasternLI]

Let's do a comparison as things stand currently wrt SST's. Here's this year followed by the other strong/super el nino's going back to 82-83. Below is this year currently, followed by the others in reverse chronological order. Obviously, the globe is getting warmer over time. Naturally, sst's would follow suit. Is anyone disputing that fact anymore? I don't really see anyone doing that but not the point of this post. One can clearly see things warming over time. 

 

I've been floating around on these boards for a very long time now. There used to be discussions from very wise mets in the enso threads of yore on how actual sst's should be viewed and pondered. Not only the anomalies. So I'm posting the actual sst's as comparison. Looking at it this way, 97-98 and 87-88 stick out to me a little more so than the others. Again, not because of the actual readings compared to each other. Rather, the positioning of the warm pool biased east. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Hot off the press from another source posting the 8/1/26 Cansips run of Nino SST anomalies. It is continuing the CanSIPS run trend of moving the strongest warm SST anomalies further and further east at the ~Nov peak. That’s not surprising because I’ve been suspecting a Modoki bias for it based on the past few years of analyzing it as I’ve posted a number of times here before.

 The April-June 1st runs had the warmest anomalies near the Dateline/straight Modoki (W based) in the peak month of Nov. Then the July 1st had warmest anomalies in Nov further E near 160W, more of a cross between central based and Modoki.
 

 The new Cansips run’s Nov peak shows the warmest anomalies centered near 130W, which would be centered in E Nino 3.4/Nino 3 making it pretty E based. Though this run is not as E based as 1997-8, stay tuned to future runs because the E trend of the strongest anomalies on Cansips from run to run may very well not be done due to this suspected Modoki bias.

 I can’t post it because the file size is much too large for me to have room in my account. But when it comes out on TT and WxBell, those will be smaller files and thus postable.

No one thought it was right with a straight Modoki in the seasonal mean.

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No one thought it was right with a straight Modoki in the seasonal mean.

The maps I was basing my post on were from weathermodels.com and were using 1991-2020 for base climo.

 But since I posted that, the WxBell Aug 1st version came out. It uses 1981-2010 for climo. WB had the warmest anomalies centered in Nov near 180 for the April-June 1st runs and significantly further E (near 160W) for the July 1st run. WB (using 1981-2010 base) has its Aug 1st Nov warmest centered near 150W, which is C based/basinwide and not E based like weathermodels.com’s (1991-2020 base) 130W. So, the WB 1981-2010 base version also moved E, but not nearly as far as the weathermodels 1991-2020 base version, which has it all the way E to 130W (pretty E based):

WB 7/1/26 SSTa run for Nov (1981-2010 base) centered ~160W

WB 8/1/26 SSTa run for Nov (1981-2010 base) centered ~150W

 

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The maps I was basing my post on were from weathermodels.com and were using 1991-2020 for base climo.

 But since I posted that, the WxBell Aug 1st version came out. It uses 1981-2010 for climo. WB had the warmest anomalies centered in Nov near 180 for the April-June 1st runs and significantly further E (near 160W) for the July 1st run. It has its Aug 1st Nov warmest centered near 150W, which is C based/basinwide and not E based like weathermodels.com’s 130W. So, the WB 1981-2010 base version also moved E, but not nearly as far as the weathermodels 1991-2020 base version, which has it all the way E to 130W (pretty E based):

WB 7/1/26 SSTa run for Nov (1981-2010 base) centered ~160W

WB 8/1/26 SSTa run for Nov (1981-2010 base) centered ~150W

 

It's bad enough current SSTA vary from different products/sources, now we have models prog depictions following along. No wonder there's rarely agreement on forecasts...or on this Board! Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The maps I was basing my post on were from weathermodels.com and were using 1991-2020 for base climo.

 But since I posted that, the WxBell Aug 1st version came out. It uses 1981-2010 for climo. WB had the warmest anomalies centered in Nov near 180 for the April-June 1st runs and significantly further E (near 160W) for the July 1st run. WB (using 1981-2010 base) has its Aug 1st Nov warmest centered near 150W, which is C based/basinwide and not E based like weathermodels.com’s (1991-2020 base) 130W. So, the WB 1981-2010 base version also moved E, but not nearly as far as the weathermodels 1991-2020 base version, which has it all the way E to 130W (pretty E based):

WB 7/1/26 SSTa run for Nov (1981-2010 base) centered ~160W

WB 8/1/26 SSTa run for Nov (1981-2010 base) centered ~150W

 

I think these changes are entirely immaterial with the degree of warmth throughout ENSO.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Why does the CANSIPS have the El Nino continue to be centered so far west? That's not the way it's developing or is now. +6c in Nino 3.4 is pretty extreme. Nino 1+2 is currently twice as high as Nino 3.4. 

[so_whats_happening]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

OHC is at a new high on this graph:

Now it will be interesting to see what happens from here. Looking back at 1997-98 we see there was a double peak for 180-100W OHC. 2015 we also saw this and 2023 again both years did have overall less OHC than 97 and this current year but both had a double peak, 1982 did not just had one continuous upward movement. My own thoughts would suggest maybe a September peak in OHC then a quick decline as we head into winter. The only problem with this is the lack of - anomalies in the WPAC subsurface we have yet to really see develop compared to other years with a similar temp profile. So as 180-100W may die out the overall 130E-80W and even just 160E-80W still stay relatively warm with those stronger negative anomalies not showing up leading to a more basin wide setup as we get to winter. Just thoughts floating around as we typically see the Nino events die west to east from an OHC stand point.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

YR    MON   130E-80W   160E-80W   180W-100W

1997    1      .54       .49        .56
1997    2      .84       .85       1.00
1997    3     1.09      1.26       1.17
1997    4     1.49      1.87       2.17
1997    5     1.38      1.82       2.01
1997    6     1.55      2.01       2.25
1997    7     1.34      1.77       1.83
1997    8     1.07      1.50       1.79
1997    9     1.25      1.85       2.38
1997   10     1.35      2.05       2.56
1997   11     1.19      1.94       2.30
1997   12      .56      1.15       1.02
1998    1     -.24       .16        .00
1998    2     -.66      -.35       -.38

It is like if 1997 and 2015 had a baby. Shame we are not getting the western edge of TAO as those buoys are being worked on.

[so_whats_happening]

On 7/30/2026 at 10:57 PM, so_whats_happening said:

Yea this one will be fascinating to watch unfold. The atmospheric pattern still resembles that of a La Nina/ -PDO mode in the northern hemisphere for sure. 

Even with the tropical activity in the WPAC this year (which is great to see) we haven't seen many recurving typhoons sinlaku was the closest to still being a typhoon while recurving. Most of the storms have still been tracking west which doesn't bode well for the PDO to flip, maybe we see that change as we get into fall.

I would like to add more context I guess, it is nice to see some actual recurves still taking place even in a weakened state of a storm the energy injection is still important. I do wonder though if this means yet again an overall weaker Aleutian low potential for winter, time will tell of course.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

4 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Looking at it this way, 97-98 and 87-88 stick out to me a little more so than the others. Again, not because of the actual readings compared to each other. Rather, the positioning of the warm pool biased east. 

Interesting to note that each of these events were immediately followed by a strong la nina (1998-2000 and 88-89).

[snowman19]

+12C subsurface anomalies are coming
 

And the WWBs just keep pushing that 30C isotherm further and further east of the dateline. Great forecast by the EURO months ago showing the record far east warm pool
 

 

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

1. Why are you using 1991-2020 for climo for a 1987 summer? That diminishes the above normal H5 in the E US on your 1st map.

2. The highest height anomalies/warmest temp annomalies are in the E US, regardless. How is that El Ninoish?

2026 is near the warmest July on record in my first post using 1991-2020 climate normals at +2.5 since that is the base period Brian used. The departure would be even higher if an older base period was used.

My 2nd post uses 1971-2000 climo and even that cooler one shows that 1987 wasn’t a warm summer for the CONUs even during the 1980s. Notice the warmest summer of that decade was 1988 which came in the summer after the El Niño and not before. So this El Niño is getting off to a much warmer start than usual. 

It’s El Ninoish since it matches most of the pattern for an El Niño summer from the Pacific across to the Atlantic. Every spot isn’t going to be a 100% match. But most of the area from the Pacific to the Atlantic is a reasonable 500 mb match whatever the base period is used for an El Niño summer.

A hallmark of a developing very strong El Niño pattern during the summer is higher 500mb heights further north and lower heights underneath from the Pacific to the Atlantic. This summer the pattern is reversed which lead to all the record warmth across the CONUS.

The record ridge north of Hawaii this month is the reason that the PDO had the steep drop in July. This is not the 500 mb pattern that we have typically had during any El Niños which were on their way to super status. So this event is in a league of its own in numerous ways. 
 

 

[EasternLI]

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I would like to add more context I guess, it is nice to see some actual recurves still taking place even in a weakened state of a storm the energy injection is still important. I do wonder though if this means yet again an overall weaker Aleutian low potential for winter, time will tell of course.

That is the PDO battle royale in a nutshell. As a -PDO plus +ENSO can yield a weaker Aleutian low than you would otherwise expect to see. Yet, PDO variability and transitions has links to the strength of the Aleutian low too. So it's fascinating watching a +enso of this caliber coming up against the deeply entrenched -PDO state. Since Aleutian low strength has ties to +enso strength also. Does one or the other win out? Or is it more of a blend between the two? I lean towards a record el nino taking an upper hand at some point. I feel like this event has some potential to flip us out of that long term -PDO state too or at least begin to. Who knows, but it's really interesting to watch.

[mitchnick]

Well, I'm happy with the new Cansips. Still too cool up north I suspect, but the precip anomalies are great if you like coastal and temps are more than workable for many I would say.

And fwiw, the end of the run is cooling waters around Japan dramatically and warming the NE Pacific. End of -PDO maybe, or at least working on it? Definitely working to build a Niña at the end though.

500mb starting December:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026080100&fh=4

Surface temps starting December:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026080100&fh=4

Precip starting December:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2026080100&fh=4

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

That is the PDO battle royale in a nutshell. As a -PDO plus +ENSO can yield a weaker Aleutian low than you would otherwise expect to see. Yet, PDO variability and transitions has links to the strength of the Aleutian low too. So it's fascinating watching a +enso of this caliber coming up against the deeply entrenched -PDO state. Since Aleutian low strength has ties to +enso strength also. Does one or the other win out? Or is it more of a blend between the two? I lean towards a record el nino taking an upper hand at some point. I feel like this event has some potential to flip us out of that long term -PDO state too or at least begin to. Who knows, but it's really interesting to watch.

That will be the test going forward. We will have to see how things evolve in the coming months. Since the seasonal models missed this summer pattern. So the seasonal models may even have lower skill than they traditionally have had beyond the one month forecast period. 

This summer is featuring a weaker Aleutian low than usual for a developing super El Niño and a much stronger mid-latitude ridge across the Pacific and the CONUS. 

So if this continues into the winter , then it could mean the traditional super El Niño ridge gets displaced further south and perhaps east into the CONUS than usual.

Since a -PDO atmospheric state even overlapping at 10%-20% relative to the winter super El Niño forcing could lead to shifts.

This would have implications on the warmth and possibly where the heaviest precipitation zones set up. 

The mid-latitude ridges being stronger than the troughs has been the main feature of our winters and other seasons since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. 

 

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

That is the PDO battle royale in a nutshell. As a -PDO plus +ENSO can yield a weaker Aleutian low than you would otherwise expect to see. Yet, PDO variability and transitions has links to the strength of the Aleutian low too. So it's fascinating watching a +enso of this caliber coming up against the deeply entrenched -PDO state. Since Aleutian low strength has ties to +enso strength also. Does one or the other win out? Or is it more of a blend between the two? I lean towards a record el nino taking an upper hand at some point. I feel like this event has some potential to flip us out of that long term -PDO state too or at least begin to. Who knows, but it's really interesting to watch.

Idk, last year's Niña was pretty standard for Niñas with snows along the east coast and cold. 

[snowman19]

That is the PDO battle royale in a nutshell. As a -PDO plus +ENSO can yield a weaker Aleutian low than you would otherwise expect to see. Yet, PDO variability and transitions has links to the strength of the Aleutian low too. So it's fascinating watching a +enso of this caliber coming up against the deeply entrenched -PDO state. Since Aleutian low strength has ties to +enso strength also. Does one or the other win out? Or is it more of a blend between the two? I lean towards a record el nino taking an upper hand at some point. I feel like this event has some potential to flip us out of that long term -PDO state too or at least begin to. Who knows, but it's really interesting to watch.

I’ll die on this hill, the PDO is going to be weak positive by the end of met fall

[EasternLI]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Idk, last year's Niña was pretty standard for Niñas with snows along the east coast and cold. 

Well yeah, but that's a totally different animal from today. That's in sync with the PDO. This El nino is out of sync. That makes all the difference and I can try to make a post later as to why. I never had any problem with la nina's. Weak to moderate enso of either sign historically can treat me well locally. It's neutral or very strong events I'm not overly fond to see. Here's a picture from the blizzard this past winter. Ended up with 2 feet.

 

[snowman19]

@Gawx Over/under that the MEI is already at or above +2 given the current obs of the parameters it measures? If so, given that those parameters are projected to only get stronger the next few months and the record-breaking rise since April, I think we set a new MEI record (old record: +2.9)…..

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Well yeah, but that's a totally different animal from today. That's in sync with the PDO. This El nino is out of sync. That makes all the difference and I can try to make a post later as to why. I never had any problem with la nina's. Weak to moderate enso of either sign historically can treat me well locally. It's neutral or very strong events I'm not overly fond to see. Here's a picture from the blizzard this past winter. Ended up with 2 feet.

 

My point was despite any warming, last year's Niña was pretty canonical. This year's Niño can still happen (canonical) by either the PDO coming around or the Niño overwhelming it. And when you consider all the seasonal models are pretty well aligned to one, odds favor it short of a total failure of all seasonal modeling. 

[EasternLI]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’ll die on this hill, the PDO is going to be weak positive by the end of met fall
 

I feel that it will too but think it's also important to point out that there is some resistance out there.

[csnavywx]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Why does the CANSIPS have the El Nino continue to be centered so far west? That's not the way it's developing or is now. +6c in Nino 3.4 is pretty extreme. Nino 1+2 is currently twice as high as Nino 3.4. 

This is a known issue with the model. It will almost always favor CP Ninos until later on. I'm going to guess this has at least partially has to do with too much ocean model vertical mixing and diffusion as well as convective schemes that underestimate coupling and convective feedbacks (e.g. Bjerknes feedback).

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

This is a known issue with the model. It will almost always favor CP Ninos until later on. I'm going to guess this has at least partially has to do with too much ocean model vertical mixing and diffusion as well as convective schemes that underestimate coupling and convective feedbacks (e.g. Bjerknes feedback).

It has been completely awful with the strength too. The worst out of any other model, in a world all to its own. It finally woke up and is playing catch up now. The weakest out of any other model for months and blatantly wrong