2026-2027 Super El Nino

[bluewave]

49 minutes ago, GaWx said:

More on the not mild 1877-8 in much of the E US:

NYC using 1869-1900 for normals

Dec 37.4 (+3.2) AN

Jan 29.9 (-0.4) NN

Feb 32.3 (+1.2) NN

So, DJF +1.3 NN with only Dec warmer than normal and even it wasn’t a torch

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

@csnavywx

Parts of the East had their lowest snowfall of the 1800s that winter.

The big story during the 1877-1878 super El Niño was the warmth in the Upper Midwest.

It’s an example how  really strong El Niños can sometimes have their warmest departures in February. 

While we don’t have the 1841-1870 climate normals for MSP, I used the earliest available 30 year period.

The departures for them that winter would have been like if December 2015 had run through February 2016 in the Northeast with no pattern reversal.

MSP 1877-1878 

DEC….+14.5

JAN…..+9.8

FEB……+15.8

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Minneapolis-St Paul Area, MN (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	19.3	12.0	15.7	15.6
Max	33.8 1877	25.9 1880	31.9 1877
1872-1873	6.0	5.4	12.8	8.1
1873-1874	17.6	12.2	12.6	14.1
1874-1875	17.2	-3.4	-2.6	3.7
1875-1876	24.7	15.7	15.9	18.8
1876-1877	8.3	8.6	31.9	16.3
1877-1878	33.8	21.8	31.5	29.0
1878-1879	19.1	16.1	12.7	16.0
1879-1880	11.5	25.9	19.6	19.0
1880-1881	13.2	7.9	17.1	12.7
1881-1882	29.0	19.0	30.4	26.1
1882-1883	15.0	0.8	12.1	9.3
1883-1884	19.7	8.8	12.9	13.8
1884-1885	14.8	4.4	11.3	10.2
1885-1886	21.0	3.7	14.9	13.2
1886-1887	7.3	0.7	9.4	5.8
1887-1888	17.4	-0.4	13.1	10.0
1888-1889	25.2	20.7	10.6	18.8
1889-1890	28.8	10.6	19.2	19.5
1890-1891	24.4	21.6	11.8	19.3
1891-1892	30.1	13.5	22.9	22.2
1892-1893	16.8	7.3	12.0	12.0
1893-1894	14.0	12.3	15.7	14.0
1894-1895	28.1	7.0	12.0	15.7
1895-1896	22.5	16.8	22.3	20.5
1896-1897	24.4	10.6	20.0	18.3
1897-1898	15.3	23.0	20.6	19.6
1898-1899	14.1	13.7	7.8	11.9
1899-1900	21.4	21.3	8.6	17.1
1900-1901	21.0	15.2	12.3	16.2
1901-1902	15.9	18.7	18.2	17.6

 

 

 

[snowman19]

Here comes the next monster WWB

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Mitchnick Which models are you looking at that always show the trade winds coming back? Because you’ve been saying that for quite awhile now and all we’ve seen are record breaking WWBs, westerlies and a complete trade wind reversal

That's what the Cfs2 was showing over 3 months ago when I posted. I was just the messenger. Obviously, Cfs2 forecast, updated multiple times a day, changed.

[Typhoon Tip]

I was just looking at that stuff... 

According to CPC most recent power point,

yet the present NINO 3.4. regional anomalies ( found here:   https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=nino3.4 ) are already floating around +2.00 C.   So, either their CFSv2 product is less accurate as a predictive use ( by over a whole deg C ), or... Climate Reanalyzer's data is suss. 

I don't really care to get into that ..per se, I'm really just more interested in general with the comparison between monitoring vs modeling: where are we?

[snowman19]

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was just looking at that stuff... 

According to CPC most recent power point,

yet the present NINO 3.4. regional anomalies ( found here:   https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=nino3.4 ) are already floating around +2.00 C.   So, either their CFSv2 product is less accurate as a predictive use ( by over a whole deg C ), or... Climate Reanalyzer's data is suss. 

I don't really care to get into that ..per se, I'm really just more interested in general with the comparison between monitoring vs modeling: where are we?

Daily Cfs2 plume charts are updated daily and hyperlinked to this site; past half way down.

https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

[GaWx]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Parts of the East had their lowest snowfall of the 1800s that winter.

The big story during the 1877-1878 super El Niño was the warmth in the Upper Midwest.

It’s an example how  really strong El Niños can sometimes have their warmest departures in February. 

While we don’t have the 1841-1870 climate normals for MSP, I used the earliest available 30 year period.

The departures for them that winter would have been like if December 2015 had run through February 2016 in the Northeast with no pattern reversal.

MSP 1877-1878 

DEC….+14.5

JAN…..+9.8

FEB……+15.8

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Minneapolis-St Paul Area, MN (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	19.3	12.0	15.7	15.6
Max	33.8 1877	25.9 1880	31.9 1877
1872-1873	6.0	5.4	12.8	8.1
1873-1874	17.6	12.2	12.6	14.1
1874-1875	17.2	-3.4	-2.6	3.7
1875-1876	24.7	15.7	15.9	18.8
1876-1877	8.3	8.6	31.9	16.3
1877-1878	33.8	21.8	31.5	29.0
1878-1879	19.1	16.1	12.7	16.0
1879-1880	11.5	25.9	19.6	19.0
1880-1881	13.2	7.9	17.1	12.7
1881-1882	29.0	19.0	30.4	26.1
1882-1883	15.0	0.8	12.1	9.3
1883-1884	19.7	8.8	12.9	13.8
1884-1885	14.8	4.4	11.3	10.2
1885-1886	21.0	3.7	14.9	13.2
1886-1887	7.3	0.7	9.4	5.8
1887-1888	17.4	-0.4	13.1	10.0
1888-1889	25.2	20.7	10.6	18.8
1889-1890	28.8	10.6	19.2	19.5
1890-1891	24.4	21.6	11.8	19.3
1891-1892	30.1	13.5	22.9	22.2
1892-1893	16.8	7.3	12.0	12.0
1893-1894	14.0	12.3	15.7	14.0
1894-1895	28.1	7.0	12.0	15.7
1895-1896	22.5	16.8	22.3	20.5
1896-1897	24.4	10.6	20.0	18.3
1897-1898	15.3	23.0	20.6	19.6
1898-1899	14.1	13.7	7.8	11.9
1899-1900	21.4	21.3	8.6	17.1
1900-1901	21.0	15.2	12.3	16.2
1901-1902	15.9	18.7	18.2	17.6

 

 

 

Unlike the very mild Feb 1878 in the upper Midwest, the E US’ warmest month of that winter was the fairly typical El Niño warmest Dec. In contrast, Feb was only modestly AN in a good portion of the NE to NN in the SE. Jan was NN to BN. Jan-Feb combined in much of the E US wasn’t mild at all and instead was largely NN (no more than slightly AN in the NE and even BN in good part of SE).

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was just looking at that stuff... 

According to CPC most recent power point,

yet the present NINO 3.4. regional anomalies ( found here:   https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=nino3.4 ) are already floating around +2.00 C.   So, either their CFSv2 product is less accurate as a predictive use ( by over a whole deg C ), or... Climate Reanalyzer's data is suss. 

I don't really care to get into that ..per se, I'm really just more interested in general with the comparison between monitoring vs modeling: where are we?

That CFS graph is referring to relative 3.4 anomalies, which are currently in the +1.3 to +1.5 region rather than ~+2.0. Actually, the official relative 3.4 for last week was only +1.3:

08JUL2026         2.6        1.7        1.3        0.5

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

 The CFS latest 10 day mean prog has a whopping +2.3 for relative 3.4 in August! August will be a really big test to see if the progged record breaking Nino is still on track as that would require a near 1C rise from July! Going back to the start of records in 1950, there has never been a 1C+ rise within just one month. I‘m talking about any month in any ENSO. Will it actually warm that much in August??

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

That CFS graph is referring to relative 3.4 anomalies, which are currently in the +1.3 to +1.5 region rather than ~+2.0. Actually, the official relative 3.4 for last week was only +1.3:
08JUL2026         2.6        1.7        1.3        0.5
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt
 The CFS latest 10 day mean prog has a whopping +2.3 for relative 3.4 in August! August will be a really big test to see if the progged record breaking Nino is still on track as that would require a near 1C rise from July:

Absolutely believable based on the massive WWB about to start, which I just posted about above from Paul Roundy, the subsurface warmth and the new DWKW making its way east

@Gawx Edit: The new OHC is up to +2.5C and climbing

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Absolutely believable based on the massive WWB about to start, which I just posted about above from Paul Roundy, the subsurface warmth and the new DWKW making its way east

 Believable but will it actually happen? Nobody knows. Largest month to month warming on record is 0.85 (Jan ‘56). The largest warming on record in Aug is 0.61 (1988). Actually, the largest on record of any month July-Oct is only that 0.61.
 Here are the largest on record:

 

0.85 Jan 1956

0.84 June 1968

0.78 Mar 1951

0.73 Feb 1976

0.71 May 2026

0.68 Nov 2009

0.68 Mar 2000

0.66 May 1967

0.61 Aug 1988

0.61 Jan 1975

0.60 Oct 1991

0.60 Jan 1953

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt

@Typhoon Tip

[csnavywx]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This map agrees with many of the official SE station temps being NN (and even BN in FL as Jacksonville and other official temps confirm). It also shows that the torch was centered in the Midwest and Plains with no torch near the E coast (ex: NYC was ~+1.3F, not a torch). Much of NE coast was only 1-2 F AN per the city by city official temps.

Yes, at first blush it's not a disaster for the SE. But last couple of strong Ninos makes it clear it may not be that cut and dry either. Either way, I'd bet on wet.

[csnavywx]

The large kelvin wave around 140W is probably the one to do most of the heavy lifting in a few weeks. Would expect subsurface anoms to increase past +10C here soon. Getting a little more tricky to find them when they get generated since the thermocline is pretty depressed already, but at least this one is still pretty visible.

[snowman19]

Region 1+2 is just going to strengthen and strengthen till its heart’s content:

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Unlike the very mild Feb 1878 in the upper Midwest, the E US’ warmest month of that winter was the fairly typical El Niño warmest Dec. In contrast, Feb was only modestly AN in a good portion of the NE to NN in the SE. Jan was NN to BN. Jan-Feb combined in much of the E US wasn’t mild at all and instead was largely NN (no more than slightly AN in the NE and even BN in good part of SE).

1997 -1998 would be a case of the warmest departures for NYC occurring in January and February. The actual February average temperature was the warmest monthly temperature of the winter.

Dec…38.2°….+2.0

Jan…40.0°…..+8.6°

Feb…..40.6°….+7.0°

2023-2024 had the warmest departure in December and the 2nd warmest in February.

Dec…44.6°…..+5.5°

Jan….37.0°……+3.3°

Feb….40.1°……+4.2°
 

2015-2016 was the most extreme front-loaded super El Niño for warmth with +13.3 in December. 

Dec….50.8°…..+13.3°

Jan…..34.5°….+1.9°

Feb…..37.7°……+2.4°

[frontranger8]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

1997 -1998 would be a case of the warmest departures for NYC occurring in January and February. The actual February average temperature was the warmest monthly temperature of the winter.

Dec…38.2°….+2.0

Jan…40.0°…..+8.6°

Feb…..40.6°….+7.0°

2023-2024 had the warmest departure in December and the 2nd warmest in February.

Dec…44.6°…..+5.5°

Jan….37.0°……+3.3°

Feb….40.1°……+4.2°
 

2015-2016 was the most extreme front-loaded super El Niño for warmth with +13.3 in December. 

Dec….50.8°…..+13.3°

Jan…..34.5°….+1.9°

Feb…..37.7°……+2.4°

Bigger picture for 1982-83. Interesting how Jan/Feb had nearly identical anomaly patterns.

[LakePaste25]

7 minutes ago, frontranger8 said:

Bigger picture for 1982-83. Interesting how Jan/Feb had nearly identical anomaly patterns.

Jan/Feb look like the -WPO Nina pattern, but flipped. 

[GaWx]

The latest daily OISST anomaly update for 3.4 had a warming of a whopping 0.13C, which is the largest rise since June 4th. This is the kind of move that will probably be needed from time to time to get August averaged out up to the mid +2s:

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, frontranger8 said:

Bigger picture for 1982-83. Interesting how Jan/Feb had nearly identical anomaly patterns.

It probably helped that the Southeast had much colder winters back in that era.