2026-2027 Super El Nino

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Eps says it's coming to a N. Hemisphere near you.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026071400&fh=210

5 day average 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2026071400&fh=264

[snowman19]

 

I don’t think there’s any reason to doubt a +3.5C traditional ONI peak and a RONI peak of +3.0C anymore



If the models are correct, this is the very start of an explosion of TC’s in the EPAC

 

 

 

 

 

 

[csnavywx]

We're at the point where this event catches up to '97 and passes it handily.

[snowman19]

We're at the point where this event catches up to '97 and passes it handily.

We are about to leave 1997 in the dust.

The 30C isotherm continues to trek further east of the dateline, pushed by the ongoing WWBs. Absolutely believable that it gets all the way to 140W by November

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We are about to leave 1997 in the dust.

The 30C isotherm continues to trek further east of the dateline, pushed by the ongoing WWBs. Absolutely believable that it gets all the way to 140W by November

 

 

 

 

Agreed.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

5 day average 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2026071400&fh=264

That relaxation of the ridge and heat has been the pattern since May following these periods of record heat and ridging.

If the ridge returns again in early August, then we’ll know the pattern is continuing.

But if the trough can hold on, then it would look more like a traditional developing super El Niño mid-latitude summer pattern in the East.

It would be nice to get an extended break from these periods of record warmth and ridging. 

The shear across the Caribbean with this record breaking super El Niño is more like what they see in December.

 

[snowman19]

Agreed.

All one has to do is look at these current anomalies and sea level heights/thermocline and there should be no question that this is going to be an all-time historic Nino event

[GaWx]

 There’s a possibility of exceeding 1018 mb in Darwin on Thursday (7/16), which would be only the 2nd day on record back to 1991 per the SOI daily pressure records. That record high is 1018.35 mb. Even that could be challenged.

 This is courtesy of a 1040 S Australian polar high. Another strong polar high is progged to do similar next week in this typical El Niño pattern that brings Darwin pressure up.

[michsnowfreak]

On 7/13/2026 at 7:52 AM, roardog said:

I feel like once you get into super Nino status that stronger might even be better here just because there should have a tremendous amount of moisture streaming into the country. Some of that is bound to try to make its way up this way like it did in 2015-2016. I guess if we have a record setting Nino then it’s something we’ve never experienced so technically there isn’t even an analog. 

Thats all good points. I feel like the excess moisture is a huge thing. The assumption that El Nino always means dry has been failing in recent years, especially with stronger Ninos. Really thinking we get some good wet paste storms this year. 

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Getting very close in Nino 1+2 now to 1997 with 2026 leading in all other areas. 
 
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/
                …….Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
08JUL2026     25.5 3.4     28.3 2.3     29.4 2.0     30.0 1.2
08JUL2015      24.7 2.5     27.8 1.8       28.7 1.3      29.8 1.0
09JUL1997      25.6 3.5     27.7 1.7        28.6 1.3     29.3 0.5
 

Indeed. We are on the verge of easily surpassing 1997 in every aspect very soon….


 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Subsurface is actually falling behind 1997 right now (+9c vs +7c). There is however a Kelvin Wave hitting the central-subsurface, so maybe it will increase eastern anomalies in a few weeks. Timing of gravity waves is not always the same in different ENSO events. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 There’s a possibility of exceeding 1018 mb in Darwin on Thursday (7/16), which would be only the 2nd day on record back to 1991 per the SOI daily pressure records. That record high is 1018.35 mb. Even that could be challenged.

 This is courtesy of a 1040 S Australian polar high. Another strong polar high is progged to do similar next week in this typical El Niño pattern that brings Darwin pressure up.

SOI going wild right now.. up there in a top 7/8 event since the late 1800s per SOI now. 

14 Jul 2026	1011.36	1016.35	-36.56	-23.53	-17.62
13 Jul 2026	1010.44	1015.10	-34.53	-23.20	-17.20
12 Jul 2026	1009.89	1015.20	-38.53	-23.21	-16.92
11 Jul 2026	1011.77	1015.80	-30.66	-23.06	-16.66

 

Currently lowest 30-day SOI since 1997