Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 18 hours ago Author Share Posted 18 hours ago 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Copernicus seasonal mean seems to have a New Foundling cold pool in November. Preceding Atlantic SSTA for following cold season NAO I find May-Sept is the best because it has that positive correlation around Greenland which you can play vs SSTA south of New Foundland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Preceding Atlantic SSTA for following cold season NAO I find May-Sept is the best because it has that positive correlation around Greenland which you can play vs SSTA south of New Foundland It's camped there from July-through September, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago +1.4 on Tropical Tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Just stating to dig into ENSO in depth now that we are beyond the spring barrier, and this isn't like 1997 per EMI....FWIW. Very similar to 2015. Stronger version of 2015. WWB looks to be hitting kind of a barrier in region 3 for now, so this looks to end to remain basin-wide...I am betting 1.2 has peaked for awhile....not saying much given how warm it is, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Basin-Wide has a wide degree of variation...can end up with an east0based pattern, like 2023, or more Modoki like, per 1957 and 1965. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 15 hours ago Author Share Posted 15 hours ago 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Basin-Wide has a wide degree of variation...can end up with an east0based pattern, like 2023, or more Modoki like, per 1957 and 1965. 65-66 had a -PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 14 hours ago Author Share Posted 14 hours ago Good stuff as always, snowman19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Anyone notice the JMA 2m temps for next winter? interesting... Looks Modoki. Looks beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 65-66 had a -PNA? Yes. I don't really care what the tweet brigade says, it's not severely east-based. Doesn't mean it can't be as warm as one, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 14 hours ago Author Share Posted 14 hours ago Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. I don't really care what the tweet brigade says, it's not severely east-based. Doesn't mean it can't be as warm as one, though. I just don't think it was a Modoki pattern in the Pacific. Heavy -NAO was why that Winter was cold in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 6 hours ago, bluewave said: The December forecast map shows the +IOD becoming more neutral following the fall peak with the SSTs rebounding a bit near the Maritime Continent So we’ll have to see how things verify once we get that far out in time. Also note the December forecast chart has warmer SSTs east of Japan and over the Atlantic. 4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think bluewave has pointed out the last major seasonal forecast hit was the JMA in 2013. I do have bad memories of the constant trough over the EC that seasonal models were showing in the Summer/Fall 2023 though. Seasonal forecasts definitely have their limitations, regardless of the specification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. I don't really care what the tweet brigade says, it's not severely east-based. Doesn't mean it can't be as warm as one, though. I always thought you had east based, west based(Modoki) or basin wide. With region 4 at 1.4 or whatever it is today, how can this not currently be classified as basin wide? You could call it leaning east or something I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 14 hours ago Author Share Posted 14 hours ago 15 minutes ago, roardog said: I always thought you had east based, west based(Modoki) or basin wide. With region 4 at 1.4 or whatever it is today, how can this not currently be classified as basin wide? You could call it leaning east or something I guess. It's relative to the average fluctuation of different regions vs each other. Tropical Tidbits has Nino 1+2 at +2.8c and there is +8c water under there. It's like 50% or more Nino 1+2 based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 16 minutes ago, roardog said: I always thought you had east based, west based(Modoki) or basin wide. With region 4 at 1.4 or whatever it is today, how can this not currently be classified as basin wide? You could call it leaning east or something I guess. 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's relative to the average fluctuation of different regions. Tropical Tidbits has Nino 1+2 at +2.8c and there is +8c water under there. THIS is strongly east-based: 11JUN1997 26.1 2.8 27.8 1.1 28.4 0.7 28.9 0.1 This: 10JUN2015 25.5 2.0 27.8 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.8 0.9 This: 07JUN2023 26.1 2.6 28.0 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.5 0.7 And THIS: 10JUN2026 26.1 2.7 28.3 1.6 29.2 1.5 30.1 1.3 Are basin-wide. Eastward leaning, sure....okay. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 13 hours ago Author Share Posted 13 hours ago Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 10JUN2026 26.1 2.7 28.3 1.6 29.2 1.5 30.1 1.3 Are basin-wide. Eastward leaning, sure....okay. Ever had a La Nina this east based? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Is it a huge deal? I don't think so, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Ever had a La Nina this east based? No idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Like I said, basin-wide is varied....could end up warmer than 1997 and I would not be surprised in the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 13 hours ago Author Share Posted 13 hours ago 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No idea. No, really strong El Nino's tend to develop this way. In comparison to other Super Nino's it doesn't look especially outstanding, but there has never been a La Nina at this time of the year that had Nino 1+2 70% greater than all other regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 34 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: No, really strong El Nino's tend to develop this way. In comparison to other Super Nino's it doesn't look especially outstanding, but there has never been a La Nina at this time of the year that had Nino 1+2 70% greater than all other regions. Makes sense since they aren't as powerful in general. It's semantics, anyway....I'm not trying to argue that winter is going to be cold because we have warmth in the western regions, but I do think that the risk of a winter closer to normal tempwise is heightened.....especially considering that the western warm pool may have edged eastward a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 13 hours ago Author Share Posted 13 hours ago Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Makes sense since they aren't as powerful in general. It's semantics, anyway....I'm not trying to argue that winter is going to be cold because we have warmth in the western regions, but I do think that the risk of a winter closer to normal tempwise is heightened.....especially considering that the western warm pool may edged eastward a bit. East based Super Nino's in the analogs might have too much of a +NAO bias anyway. 1895-1948 La Nina's were... really warm Winters. Flip that around and it's colder for El Nino's, Nino's might have been more east-based though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 13 hours ago Author Share Posted 13 hours ago 02-03, 04-05, 09-10.. Nino 1+2 was close to neutral.. those were true west-based Nino years, and what a Winter they were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 27 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 02-03, 04-05, 09-10.. Nino 1+2 was close to neutral.. those were true west-based Nino years, and what a Winter they were Yea, I have those, 1958-1959, 1968-1969 and 1977-1978 comprising my Modoki composite....but those are def. the most extreme members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago The only year that has cold ENSO-->warm ENSO, very +NAO, very -WPO in March is 1986. For winter, that's - +NAO & AO early (Oct-Dec), -NAO late (Jan-Mar) -WPO early (Oct-Dec), +WPO late (Jan-Mar) +PNA (Dec-Mar) -EPO (Jan-Feb), +EPO (Mar) Signal Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar NAO + + + - - - AO + + + - - - PNA + - + + + + EPO + + ? - - + WPO - - - + + + That's a good pattern for storms nationally, volatile but warm for temps for most of the USA. +NAO - For Oct, warm Plains and East. Neutral West & Deep South for Oct. Warm signal strongest over Missouri. For Nov, warm signal strongest SE US, warm signal eastern 1/3 of the USA. Weak cold signal TX to WA state. +AO is similar in Oct-Nov, but a broader warm signal for the Midwest in October. -NAO/AO in Jan-Mar - cold everywhere. Strongest in March. +PNA - very warm signal for the Western US in October. Weak cold signal in the Eastern US. Netural Plains. -PNA Nov - cold signal Western and Northern US, warm signal Southern & Eastern US. Strong signal Northwest and Deep South. +PNA Dec-Mar. Broadly cold for the South and East in Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar. But strongest signal and widest significant spatial correlation in Nov-Jan. +EPO is a cold signal for the entire US east of the West Coast in Oct-Nov. Strongly so east of the Rockies. -EPO is a strong warm signal for the US outside the Southwest in Jan-Mar, especially in Jan/Mar. Weak cold signal in the SW Jan/Mar, strong in Feb. -WPO Oct is very cold in the middle 2/3 of the US, neutral coasts (think Oct 2020). Cold east for Nov - weak. Strong cold signal NE US in Dec. +WPO is a weak cold SW/warm NE signal in Jan, and then much stronger for both components in Feb/Mar. These are the years with the 1986-87 projection for the main signals. Oct: +NAO, +PNA, +EPO - WPO, El Nino: 1957, 1963, 1965, 1969, 1976, 1986, 1987, 2015, 2018 Nov: +NAO, -PNA, +EPO, -WPO, El Nino: 1982, 1986, 2019 Dec: +NAO, +PNA, ?EPO, -WPO, El Nino: 1986, 2014 Jan: -NAO, +PNA, -EPO, +WPO, El Nino: 1957, 1986, 1991, 2002, 2009, 2015 Feb: -NAO, +PNA, -EPO, +WPO, El Nino: 1951, 1963, 1976, 1986, 1997, 2009 Mar: -NAO, +PNA, +EPO, +WPO, El Nino: 1957, 1986, 1987, 2023 Honestly looks...plausible? Something like this overall - it'd be a 0-1F colder nationally for Jan-Mar v. Dec-Feb but very similar. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Nice post, raindance. I'm not sold on a non-winter, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago I'm not really using 1986-1987 per se, but like that overall progression......mild December prior to mid season shift colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 5 hours ago, raindancewx said: The only year that has cold ENSO-->warm ENSO, very +NAO, very -WPO in March is 1986. For winter, that's - +NAO & AO early (Oct-Dec), -NAO late (Jan-Mar) -WPO early (Oct-Dec), +WPO late (Jan-Mar) +PNA (Dec-Mar) -EPO (Jan-Feb), +EPO (Mar) Signal Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar NAO + + + - - - AO + + + - - - PNA + - + + + + EPO + + ? - - + WPO - - - + + + That's a good pattern for storms nationally, volatile but warm for temps for most of the USA. +NAO - For Oct, warm Plains and East. Neutral West & Deep South for Oct. Warm signal strongest over Missouri. For Nov, warm signal strongest SE US, warm signal eastern 1/3 of the USA. Weak cold signal TX to WA state. +AO is similar in Oct-Nov, but a broader warm signal for the Midwest in October. -NAO/AO in Jan-Mar - cold everywhere. Strongest in March. +PNA - very warm signal for the Western US in October. Weak cold signal in the Eastern US. Netural Plains. -PNA Nov - cold signal Western and Northern US, warm signal Southern & Eastern US. Strong signal Northwest and Deep South. +PNA Dec-Mar. Broadly cold for the South and East in Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar. But strongest signal and widest significant spatial correlation in Nov-Jan. +EPO is a cold signal for the entire US east of the West Coast in Oct-Nov. Strongly so east of the Rockies. -EPO is a strong warm signal for the US outside the Southwest in Jan-Mar, especially in Jan/Mar. Weak cold signal in the SW Jan/Mar, strong in Feb. -WPO Oct is very cold in the middle 2/3 of the US, neutral coasts (think Oct 2020). Cold east for Nov - weak. Strong cold signal NE US in Dec. +WPO is a weak cold SW/warm NE signal in Jan, and then much stronger for both components in Feb/Mar. These are the years with the 1986-87 projection for the main signals. Oct: +NAO, +PNA, +EPO - WPO, El Nino: 1957, 1963, 1965, 1969, 1976, 1986, 1987, 2015, 2018 Nov: +NAO, -PNA, +EPO, -WPO, El Nino: 1982, 1986, 2019 Dec: +NAO, +PNA, ?EPO, -WPO, El Nino: 1986, 2014 Jan: -NAO, +PNA, -EPO, +WPO, El Nino: 1957, 1986, 1991, 2002, 2009, 2015 Feb: -NAO, +PNA, -EPO, +WPO, El Nino: 1951, 1963, 1976, 1986, 1997, 2009 Mar: -NAO, +PNA, +EPO, +WPO, El Nino: 1957, 1986, 1987, 2023 Honestly looks...plausible? Something like this overall - it'd be a 0-1F colder nationally for Jan-Mar v. Dec-Feb but very similar. Great post! Averaging out Dec-Feb, it doesn't really look too much different from the NMME in the east. I don't care about its forecast for the rest of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 19 hours ago, GaWx said: Keep in mind that these tend to run too high when forecasting extremes out several weeks: Note it’s now <0.5. Compare that to this 6/3 forecast, which had it at +2 for today! Big shift to a negative tendency last few days as we see a more Niña-like pattern again for a time near the end of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I predict that R 3.4 and R 1+2 will be up to +1.1/+2.4 in tomorrow’s weekly update. These would be up from the +0.9/+2.1 of last Monday’s report. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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