2026-2027 Super El Nino

[PhiEaglesfan712]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well yeah, we had an El Nino in 14-15. A better comparison would be years that were coming from Neutral or weak Nina

That leaves us with 1972 and 1982 from the super group. (You already did 1997.)

From the strong group, we have 1957, 1965, 1986, 2009, and 2023.

1987 (el nino already in progress, 1986 would be the year to use as I mentioned above) and 1991 (another high end warm neutral like 2015, plus had a major volcano) probably aren't good comparisons.

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'm not arguing that there isn't any support for it.....I'm just skeptical at this early juncture given the intensity of the event just three years ago.

We have plenty of time to watch this one develop. Remember, these ENSO plume forecasts are just basically repeater models. They extrapolate the current conditions going forward. They are correct when the actual conditions repeat. When changes occur they exhibit errors.

So if these record WWBs continue, then we have a shot at what they are showing. All I can say is that the models did a great job on the plumes from April of 2023.

We would probably need a wind reversal on the order of June 2014 to avoid a +2.0 or greater ONI outcome. Once we verify the June conditions then things will come into better focus.

The big story in 2023-2024 was the models underestimating the Nino ridge and warmth along the Northern Tier and overestimating the Aleutian low and troughing in the South and East. So it will be interesting to see how things go with this event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 4/8/2026 at 7:52 AM, bluewave said:

We have plenty of time to watch this one develop. Remember, these ENSO plume forecasts are just basically repeater models. They extrapolate the current conditions going forward. They are correct when the actual conditions repeat. When changes occur they exhibit errors.

So if these record WWBs continue, then we have a shot at what they are showing. All I can say is that the models did a great job on the plumes from April of 2023.

We would probably need a wind reversal on the order of June 2014 to avoid a +2.0 or greater ONI outcome. Once we verify the June conditions then things will come into better focus.

The big story in 2023-2024 was the models underestimating the Nino ridge and warmth along the Northern Tier and overestimating the Aleutian low and troughing in the South and East. So it will be interesting to see how things go with this event.

Yes, this is why I am going to be keeping a close vigil on the RONI/ONI separation. I don't view the delta as a positive for winter enthusiasts.

[snowman19]

@Bluewave

[GaWx]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have plenty of time to watch this one develop. Remember, these ENSO plume forecasts are just basically repeater models. They extrapolate the current conditions going forward. They are correct when the actual conditions repeat. When changes occur they exhibit errors.

So if these record WWBs continue, then we have a shot at what they are showing. All I can say is that the models did a great job on the plumes from April of 2023.

We would probably need a wind reversal on the order of June 2014 to avoid a +2.0 or greater ONI outcome. Once we verify the June conditions then things will come into better focus.

The big story in 2023-2024 was the models underestimating the Nino ridge and warmth along the Northern Tier and overestimating the Aleutian low and troughing in the South and East. So it will be interesting to see how things go with this event.

The 4/23 ONI fcasts: BoM much too warm and Euro/CFS/UK somewhat too warm. Actual JAS +1.37

1. BoM: +2.17 for JAS or 0.80 too warm

2. Euro: +1.57 for JAS or 0.20 too warm

3. CFSv2: +1.56 for JAS or 0.19 too warm

4. UKMET: +1.58 for JAS or 0.21 too warm

 OTOH, the avg of all 17 dynamicals was +1.33, which was almost perfect.

ONI history:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

 

4/23 ONI forecasts: 

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2023-April-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

[GaWx]

Nov: NMME is warmer than its prior run and much more E based than Cansips Modoki:

Nov SSTa NMME latest run:

 

Nov SSTa NMME prior run:

 

Nov SSTa Cansips

[A-L-E-K]

On 4/6/2026 at 10:20 AM, A-L-E-K said:

time 2 torch

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-17 SOI today, finally pushing the 30-day negative

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-17 SOI today, finally pushing the 30-day negative

Yes, just saw the 30 day -SOI update. You were right about the subsurface warmth last week. The only year anywhere close to this one is 1997 and we have that beat

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

The models did a really great job at long lead times predicting the major TC’s……

[bluewave]

On 4/8/2026 at 8:04 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, this is why I am going to be keeping a close vigil on the RONI/ONI separation. I don't view the delta is a positive for winter enthusaists.

Even during a weak La Niña this winter, the ridges were the strongest on record compared to past weak La Niña events like 1995-1996 with -WPO /SW ridge and Greenland blocking.

If we get a strong to very strong El Niño, then it could potentially lead to a stronger 500mb El Nino ridge to the north and weaker Aleutian Low and Southeast trough like 2023-2024. The exact location where the 500 mb ridge maxes out will be important. Remember how all the models underestimated the ridge and overestimated the trough. They incorrectly had the classic strong El Niño stock composite with deep troughs.

Perhaps if the El Niño passes a certain threshold, then at least the Aleutian Low and maybe the Southeast Trough can be stronger. But we may have to wait until the winter to observe the exact response since these seasonal 500mb forecasts usually are missing some key elements.

Even though several models had a -WPO and Southwest ridge for last winter, none came close to how strong it was. 
 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

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For the Dec-Mar period, the southwestern ridge reigns supreme. An area over +5 standard deviations from the 1991-2020 normal. The eastern Siberia anomaly was *only* +4.5 standard deviations.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even during a weak La Niña this winter, the ridges were the strongest on record compared to past weak La Niña events like 1995-1996 with -WPO /SW ridge and Greenland blocking.

If we get a strong to very strong El Niño, then it could potentially lead to a stronger 500mb El Nino ridge to the north and weaker Aleutian Low and Southeast trough like 2023-2024. The exact location where the 500 mb ridge maxes out will be important. Remember how all the models underestimated the ridge and overestimated the trough. They incorrectly had the classic strong El Niño stock composite with deep troughs.

Perhaps if the El Niño passes a certain threshold, then at least the Aleutian Low and maybe the Southeast Trough can be stronger. But we may have to wait until the winter to observe the exact response since these seasonal 500mb forecasts usually are missing some key elements.

Even though several models had a -WPO and Southwest ridge for last winter, none came close to how strong it was. 
 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

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For the Dec-Mar period, the southwestern ridge reigns supreme. An area over +5 standard deviations from the 1991-2020 normal. The eastern Siberia anomaly was *only* +4.5 standard deviations.

 

 

 

It will also be interesting to see how the burgeoning warm ENSO interacts with the apparent north Pacific phase change, as we have clearly shifted to more of a -WPO base-state. If El Nino does grow as powerful as some suspect, it may be more like a 1982-1983 type of deal, where as the north Pacific was a bit more favorable.

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It will also be interesting to see how the burgeoning warm ENSO interacts with the apparent north Pacific phase change, as we have clearly shifted to more of a -WPO base-state. If El Nino does grow as powerful as some suspect, it may be more like a 1982-1983 type of deal, where as the north Pacific was a bit more favorable.

We just don’t want a repeat of the west based -WPO like we had in March which could allow too much of a +EPO Aleutian low position with El Niño forcing.

 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

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As impressive as the southwestern U.S. mega-ridge was in March, the eastern Siberia mega-ridge was even more anomalous!

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We just don’t want a repeat of the west based -WPO like we had in March which could allow too much of a +EPO Aleutian low position with El Niño forcing.

 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

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As impressive as the southwestern U.S. mega-ridge was in March, the eastern Siberia mega-ridge was even more anomalous!

 

 

 

Yea, subtle shift with the "angle of the dangle" of that vortex, and whole new pattern. It was not only the -WPO ridge shifting east, but the /AONAO blocking dissipated, so we got the dreaded elongation of the "football" shaped PV.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It will also be interesting to see how the burgeoning warm ENSO interacts with the apparent north Pacific phase change, as we have clearly shifted to more of a -WPO base-state. If El Nino does grow as powerful as some suspect, it may be more like a 1982-1983 type of deal, where as the north Pacific was a bit more favorable.

if we go the super route, I actually like 1982-83 quite a bit

[snowman19]

These projected zonal westerly wind anomalies are completely off the charts…..
 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if we go the super route, I actually like 1982-83 quite a bit

Only super event with normalish snowfall in my area...still warm, of course.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Only super event with normalish snowfall in my area...still warm, of course.

Are the only super events 1877-78, 1982-83, 1997-98, & 2015-16?

 

 

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Are the only super events 1877-78, 1982-83, 1997-98, & 2015-16?

 

 

global ocean temps from previous super el nino were cooler then what is forecasted to be this year super el nino. the 82 one global ocean temps were much cooler then normal..

[GaWx]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Are the only super events 1877-78, 1982-83, 1997-98, & 2015-16?

 

 

Add to those using a peak of 2+ RONI for 1950+: 1888-9, 1957-8, 1965-6, 1972-3, 1991-2

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Eric Webb's list has 1877-78, 1888-89, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 listed as super el ninos. Those are the only years when both the ONI and RONI were above +2C. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

If we are going to go high end, I just assume the RONI not lag the ONI......I would prefer to take my chances with both in sync and try to pop a huge GOA low. I understand the risks with east-based and such, but keep in mind that I'm conceding a mild winter and am just looking for a window to get a good storm. My largest fear is some El nino/cool ENSO bastard-child, along the lines of 2023 that won't pop a se trough.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we are going to go high end, I just assume the RONI not lag the ONI......I would prefer to take my chances with both in sync and try to pop a huge GOA low. I understand the risks with east-based and such, but keep in mind that I'm conceding a mild winter and am just looking for a window to get a good storm.

1982-83 was an east-based super El Niño and we had the megalopolis blizzard. That said, I do agree with you that if we do go super, which is looking increasingly likely, it’s going to be a mild winter 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

1982-83 was an east-based super El Niño and we had the megalopolis blizzard. That said, I do agree with you that if we do go super, which is looking increasingly likely, it’s going to be a mild winter 

1982 would actually be a best-case scenario assuming a super El Nino, and may be a favored outcome considering the recent flip to more -WPO in the northern Pacific. It was mild, but had essentially normal snowfall throughout the northeast. I don't mean like 2015, which was good in the mid Atlantic due to one storm, but still sucked in the northeast. 

[bluewave]

Upper ocean heat is getting off to a record start for March. So the model forecasts of an ONI getting above +2.0° would make sense if the El Niño continues on a similar trajectory into June past the spring forecast barrier.

This could be the first ONIs above 2.0° only 3 years apart which could have major ramifications for the global climate well beyond what happens next winter. Since we never had this rapid a global temperature increase over such a short period.

With  the big temperature jump in 2023-2024 the CONUS has had the #1 warmest winter in 2023-2024 and the #2 warmest winter in 2025-2026. Plus all the record warm winters following the 2015-2016 El Niño.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Upper ocean heat is getting off to a record start for March. So the model forecasts of an ONI getting above +2.0° would make sense if the El Niño continues on a similar trajectory into June past the spring forecast barrier.

This could be the first ONIs above 2.0° only 3 years apart which could have major ramifications for the global climate well beyond what happens next winter. Since we never had this rapid a global temperature increase over such a short period.

With  the big temperature jump in 2023-2024 the CONUS has had the #1 warmest winter in 2023-2024 and the #2 warmest winter in 2025-2026. Plus all the record warm winters following the 2015-2016 El Niño.

Have you considered the possibility that it may never snow again south of Bridgeport, CT if we get another super El Nino?