2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Chris.

 Indeed, Cansips was much too cold in the E US this spring. And it has been too cold there at other times. But I’m curious. Does it actually have a well analyzed documented cold bias in the E US based on an amply sized sample based on a good number of years? I wouldn’t be surprised but it’s important to know, of course.

I would like to see this cold bias documented too. Bias would mean it regularly runs too warm/cold. Cansips was the only model close to the cold in the great lakes and northeast last winter. Does that mean every other model has a warm bias?

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Who cares

Even though its clear who the trolls are, its a shocking lack of understanding how the actual weather works. 

[michsnowfreak]

54 minutes ago, roardog said:

My memory might be failing me but I think 1997 was the year of the November snowstorm bust here. We had a winter storm warning for 6-10 inches for the next day. By morning the warning was dropped and the forecast was for 1-3 inches. We never got a flake. It was all down toward you. 

There was a 3" snow Nov 14 and another 1.6" the 15th. I dont remember forecasts that long ago (I was young lol). Mid november to mid December, the 2nd half of january, and spurts of March were wintry. The rest sucked.

[forkyfork]

wow someone named michsnowfreak is a climate change denier. bones found in cemetery 

[michsnowfreak]

Ignorance really is bliss with the trolls.

[snowman19]

As a weather enthusiast, I’m actually looking forward to seeing a true east-based super El Niño in action this winter. I was too young to remember 1997-98. Should be fun to watch 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm really curious to see how the North Pacific High responds. Should be very telling about larger scale things. 

[FPizz]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As a weather enthusiast, I’m actually looking forward to seeing a true east-based super El Niño in action this winter. I was too young to remember 1997-98. Should be fun to watch 

What was the total precip that winter in central park?  I remember the crappy winter snow wise (5.5" total here) but cant remember if it was wet too.  

[so_whats_happening]

Just a cesspool like twitter in here, bunch of noise with very little thought.

I'll remove April in future updates.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Where's El Nino in the N Pacific? 

[roardog]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

As a weather enthusiast, I’m actually looking forward to seeing a true east-based super El Niño in action this winter. I was too young to remember 1997-98. Should be fun to watch 

A true east based Nino should have near zero or negative anomalies in Nino 4 correct? I’ll believe that when I see it. I believe Nino 4 had a big drop off in June 1997. Let’s see if that happens this year. 

[roardog]

50 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Just a cesspool like twitter in here, bunch of noise with very little thought.

I'll remove April in future updates.

What are your latest thoughts? You’re definitely one of the least biased and more knowledgeable posters here. Always appreciate you giving your thoughts 

[raindancewx]

On the May update, the Euro had Nino 4 getting to 2-2.5C above the 30-year mean in December. That's a huge body of water, and far less volatile than the more eastern areas of the Tropical Pacific.

The correlation isn't super strong - but with a very extreme reading, of say 30.5C+ or warmer - never achieved on record - you have to assume we get close to the long-term trend.

Your 29.5C+ Decembers are 1994, 2006 (both just under but over 29.4), 2009, 2015, 2018, 2023. Basically dead on to the correlation. Also consistent with Decembers following my hottest 10 Marches of the past 100 years. I'd go 2-4 degrees warmer in the warmer areas and 1-2 degrees colder in the white areas based on the extremity forecast for December.

 

 

[GaWx]

54 minutes ago, roardog said:

A true east based Nino should have near zero or negative anomalies in Nino 4 correct? I’ll believe that when I see it. I believe Nino 4 had a big drop off in June 1997. Let’s see if that happens this year. 

I’d say no based on past strong+ El Niño anomalies. Nino 4 has been at a minimum +0.5C. The idea is that 3.4 and 4 anomalies are lower than 3 and 1+2 as opposed to needing to be ~0.

[roardog]

18 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I’d say no based on past strong+ El Niño anomalies. Nino 4 has been at a minimum +0.5C. The idea is that 3.4 and 4 anomalies are lower than 3 and 1+2 as opposed to needing to be ~0.

So does a Modoki just have to have lower anomalies in 3 and 1+2 than in 3.4 and 4 or does 1+2 need to be negative? I feel like that’s the same scenario just opposite. 

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the CANSIPS did best last winter, granted non of the models accurately incorporate the magnitude of CC attributed ridge expansion. Just saying...not mean to imply it necessarily will again.

Cansips was the only seasonal model showing any BN temps in the GL/east/NE. In that respect, it was, as you stated, the best in at least those areas. It was similar in 24/25 with a cooler forecast than other models. The Cfs2 and Euro have been boiler plate AN across the country the last 2 years. Speaking for myself, I don't care about the rest of the country or any other part of the world, fry or freeze.

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

What are your latest thoughts? You’re definitely one of the least biased and more knowledgeable posters here. Always appreciate you giving your thoughts 

Well for starters I feel we are not easily getting rid of the -PDO state we will need to watch how this evolves into the end of summer. Around now through August has been the timeframe we have seen the -PDO dip hard over the last 2-3 years. I do believe if we can maintain where we are now we stand a chance at having a +PDO (weak) spike as we go into winter.

As for the ENSO state I have been very leery as far as overall strength of this event but currently it looks like a strong Nino is well supported, super not out of the question but I'm not sold on it yet. The -PDO will fight back on that potential and I personally can't quite place it but something feels a little off for super chances. I could be wrong with that and that is fine, a few tenths of a degree anomaly between strong to super is not going to make the world of difference on the overall effects we see come fall/winter over the Conus. Placement of ENSO forcing is the big one that needs to be watched with the second being to overall strength of the event, if we have further west VP and anomalies compared to past super events this becomes a different outcome for the forcing come winter.

I would also like to really see the uptick in tropical activity that tends to take place from El Nino events through much of the Pacific. If the central Pacific tends to have more of the storms this season versus EPAC we are on the path probably to a more Modoki style Nino. The waters off Baja have cooled quite a bit over the last few months this is that kick from the -PDO still in play as well as the cooler waters around Alaska.

As Bluewave states over and over, ad infinitum, the warm pool east of Japan is certainly still playing a role in how things progress and even much of the South Pacific is still very warm. In some ways we are starting to see some dual warm regions take place which is fascinating to see. You have competing factors still at play in the subtropics and mid latitudes that certainly will affect the outcome of this event. It still amazes me even with the warming of the central and EPAC tropical waters that MJO just halts at 7 and pushes to COD.

Lastly the Atlantic... Are we about to witness a reversal in the AMO? We also don't have the classic Atlantic La Nina taking place yet through the tropics this will also be something to monitor coming up.

If folks can make a forecast this far out and know almost close to what will happen come winter good on you but to me there are still many things that show a lot of uncertainty still exists. If I had to guess at an anomaly standpoint for this event we end up fairly similar in threshold to the 23-24 event. Nothing else other than the anomaly threshold.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Nice cold pool SE of New Foundland developing. Warming in the Davis Strait too and south of Greenland. There is SSTA correlation there May-Sept with following Winter NAO, that's pretty high. The current SSTA setup would favor more -NAO conditions in the Winter. Let's see if it holds going forward. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

So does a Modoki just have to have lower anomalies in 3 and 1+2 than in 3.4 and 4 or does 1+2 need to be negative? I feel like that’s the same scenario just opposite. 

Lower anomalies in 3/1+2 than 3.4/4