2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Latest CFS RONI peaks at +2.65 to +2.70 in OND, which would be a record high beating 1982:

Latest CFS ONI is +3.25-30 in OND, meaning keeping the differential near 0.6:

 

The coming winter season is goin to be a good test as to whether the absolute RONI value or the delta between it and the RONI is of greater significance. The key is whether or not we get that "La Nino" half-assed Aleutian low like 2023 again.

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO the Niña-like MJO (IO) forcing comes to an end with this El Niño once the +IOD gets established. The standing wave Nino/+IOD forcing combo is going to cause the eastern IO SSTs to upwell and cool off, causing subsidence in that region

 

Either way it will be mild, but we would at least have a shot at a decent stretch if you're right.

So the +IOD wasn't that strong in 2015 and 2023??

[GaWx]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The coming winter season is goin to be a good test as to whether the absolute RONI value or the delta between it and the RONI is of greater significance. The key is whether or not we get that "La Nino" half-assed Aleutian low like 2023 again.

 Evidently based on pro mets I follow, having relatively cooler SST anomalies near Australia compared to warmer anomalies to the east of there will be crucial. For 2023, the models, which earlier had the nice E US trough/Aleutian low that we were salivating over, were then erroneously forecasting cooler near Australia, which is pretty typical of El Niño.

 This strong El Niño is great news for the really bad drought the SE has been enduring.

[FPizz]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

That doesnt have anything to do with what will occur 7 months from now.  These long range forecasts have to end. They are rarely right.  Its fun to do one though. 

also with the 50s for the weekend, the average for the stretch will be slightly above normal.  its always hysterics 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think keying in on major signals when developing an analog composite does have some value.

Yes but there are also other factors. Either way , this will be a milder winter than last winter. No doubt about that. 

That could be a good thing since suppression will most likely not be an issue. I will take my chances with that even if its snow to rain events.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Either way it will be mild, but we would at least have a shot at a decent stretch if you're right.

So the +IOD wasn't that strong in 2015 and 2023??

I’m not @snowman19but I can tell you based on the link below that 2023 was similar to 1997 in having a very strong +IOD. 2018 was next and then 1994.

 1972, 1982, 2006, and 2015 were next (still moderately strong).

 Keep in mind:

-There’s been a decided longterm rise of the IOD in this table. So, it isn’t adjusted for long term trends. That’s why 2018 had such a strong +IOD despite El Niño being weak.

-IOD tends to peak ~Oct-Nov and falls off in winter, especially when strongly positive in autumn. So when moderate to strong +IOD in SON, it about always has had a notably lower DJF vs SON.

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes but there are also other factors. Either way , this will be a milder winter than last winter. No doubt about that. 

That could be a good thing since suppression will most likely not be an issue. I will take my chances with that even if its snow to rain events.

Of course, I'm just saying it's a consideration. I used to be oppose to it, but have started incorporating it a bit.

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, FPizz said:

also with the 50s for the weekend, the average for the stretch will be slightly above normal.  its always hysterics 

Well, you could do that with any period....add March in and winter wasn't that cold.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I’m not @snowman19but I can tell you based on the link below that 2023 was similar to 1997 in having a very strong +IOD. 2018 was next and then 1994.

 1972, 1982, 2006, and 2015 were next (still moderately strong).

 Keep in mind:

-There’s been a decided longterm rise of the IOD in this table. So, it isn’t adjusted for long term trends. That’s why 2018 had such a strong +IOD despite El Niño being weak.

-IOD tends to peak ~Oct-Nov and falls off in winter, especially when strongly positive in autumn. So when moderate to strong +IOF in SON, it about always has had a notably lower DJF vs SON.

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

This is what I was driving at.....the very strong +IOD didn't prevent the La Nino in 2023, so how can we be confident that it will this year....

[roardog]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is what I was driving at.....the very strong +IOD didn't prevent the La Nino in 2023, so how can we be confident that it will this year....

On top of that, a model forecast for a strong +IOD in late summer and fall isn’t exactly a sure bet. 

[MJO812]

Models were took quick with the insane El Nino ?

[forkyfork]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

That doesnt have anything to do with what will occur 7 months from now.  These long range forecasts have to end. They are rarely right.  Its fun to do one though. 

so let's talk about what's actually happening now

[LakePaste25]

15 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

so let's talk about what's actually happening now

hopefully this pre nino summer is a bust and we set multiple heat records throughout the summer. I love hot and humid summers 

[GaWx]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is what I was driving at.....the very strong +IOD didn't prevent the La Nino in 2023, so how can we be confident that it will this year....

1. Per that table, 2023 had a record high IOD for the months of Aug and Sep.

2. Keep in mind that IOD levels have had a notable longtime rise though. So, that biases more recent years toward a higher +IOD. Even the warm neutral (as opposed to El Niño) 2019 had a very strong +IOD in autumn/2nd strongest only to 1997! And as I already said, the very weak El Niño of 2018 still was able to have a strong +IOD.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

PNA just not budging with this El Nino

May could be the 4th consecutive month with -pna

Not really much of a consistency rolled forward, historically. 

[forkyfork]

20 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

hopefully this pre nino summer is a bust and we set multiple heat records throughout the summer. I love hot and humid summers 

every wx discussion gets ruined by snow people. unwanted plague rats

[LakePaste25]

14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

PNA just not budging with this El Nino

May could be the 4th consecutive month with -pna

Not really much of a consistency rolled forward, historically. 

“La Nino” pattern with the strong southern stream (relative to seasonal normals) that curves northward due to the se ridge. Could be due to the lingering warm pool that @bluewave refers to

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. Per that table, 2023 had a record high IOD for the months of Aug and Sep.

2. Keep in mind that IOD levels have had a notable longtime rise though. So, that biases more recent years toward a higher +IOD. Even the warm neutral (as opposed to El Niño) 2019 had a very strong +IOD in autumn/2nd strongest only to 1997! And as I already said, the very weak El Niño of 2018 still was able to have a strong +IOD.

Yea, CC is limiting the utility of traditional indexes....we need a RONI for the IOD. I bet the modern IOD readings are falsely inflated due to the rising SSTs, so you can't assume this will entirely eradicate the La Nina background.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, CC is limiting the utility of traditional indexes....we need a RONI for the IOD. I bet the modern IOD readings are falsely inflated due to the rising SSTs, so you can't assume this will entirely eradicate the La Nina background.

Indian Ocean has probably warmed the most of every sea region of the globe. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think you have to assume another La Nino given the consistent RONI lag.

[LakePaste25]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you have to assume another La Nino given the consistent RONI lag.

I’m going to wait until September or October to see if we can do anything to that west pac warm pool first. Agreed that’s where we’re headed if it lingers. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I actually had a dream that the CDC Daily climate composites pages were working again 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I actually had a dream that the CDC Daily climate composites pages were working again 

Tell me you're a weenie without telling me-

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I’m going to wait until September or October to see if we can do anything to that west pac warm pool first. Agreed that’s where we’re headed if it lingers. 

Yea, I'm open to an alternate solution, but I think the default expectation should be continued attenuation of the ability of warm ENSO to modulate the north Pacific moving forward.