2026-2027 Strong El Nino

[so_whats_happening]

Sorry there is a gap around the 8th of April TAO never updated for me

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 hours ago, bncho said:

Please correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t 15-16 have a pretty long period of blocking from mid-January into February? And the very warm December skewed the winter temperature?

We had a great blocking pattern for about a few weeks in January, right around the time of the snowstorm.

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

That would be very much unlike any moderate or stronger El Niño on record (similar to what the prior run had). So, I still expect it to bust. This looks very strange for a strong+ Nino. The south being warmer than the north doesn’t happen with moderate+ Ninos due to the cooling associated with the stronger than average ST jet and not as cold up north due to the weaker polar jet: this looks much more Niña than Nino in the Conus.

Even though the Cansips now gets to +2.0 on the ONI, the RONI looks weaker. So the big warm pool east of Japan seems to be resulting in a record -WPO for such a strong El Nino. 

Notice how the Aleutian low is substantially weakened and is further south just off of California. I agree with you that we typically haven’t seen cool anomalies near the Great Lakes with such strong events in the past.

Perhaps the warm pool east of Japan could lead to a weaker Aleutian low and a more neutral WPO that we typically see with such strong El Niños.

We know these long range model forecasts are often full of errors. If they can just get one thing right like the WPO, then I would consider it a valuable contribution. But it’s still to early to know for sure about details like the WPO this far out in time.

I guess the one takeaway is that most of the models are now at or above +2.0 for at least ONI.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thats the way to run a strong nino. Cansips has been hellbent on a 3rd straight cold winter in the Great Lakes.

Snowman must have missed that part of the seasonal forecast in his tweet regurgitation.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Even though the Cansips now gets to +2.0 on the ONI, the RONI looks weaker. So the big warm pool east of Japan seems to be resulting in a record -WPO for such a strong El Nino. 

Notice how the Aleutian low is substantially weakened and is further south just off of California. I agree with you that we typically haven’t seen cool anomalies near the Great Lakes with such strong events in the past.

Perhaps the warm pool east of Japan could lead to a weaker Aleutian low and a more neutral WPO that we typically see with such strong El Niños.

We know these long range model forecasts are often full of errors. If they can just get one thing right like the WPO, then I would consider it a valuable contribution. But it’s still to early to know for sure about details like the WPO this far out in time.

I guess the one takeaway is that most of the models are now at or above +2.0 for at least ONI.

 

1982-1983 is the only super El Nino that had kind of a favorable WPO, which is likely why the NE managed near normal snowfall. While I could see something like that, I do have a hard time envisioning a cold season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

23-24 had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings. They don't always mean cold - actually the composite mean of top 20 warm 10mb Winters (Nov-March) is above average temps in the Northeast, US. Biggest pattern is shorter term lagged -NAO with peaks, which can occur +months early in the cold season to +weeks mid/later in the cold season. 

Okay, this is what I focus on...the reversal, which is why 2023 didn't register with me. I know February 2023 had a reversal.....but wasn't under the impression that the 23-24 season did.

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

It did not the SPV was stronger to start than this past year but had a very similar large wave 1 like this past year about a month apart from each other. 25-26 November while 23-24 had it in December. Look at the difference leading into both SSW events at 500mb. 23-24 had an atmospheric pattern at 500mb not conducive to sustain the ridging like we would want to see. 25-26 set it up and finally connected in the Nov-Dec 500mb pattern which is exactly what we would want to see occur. Both had very similar Stratospheric ridging patterns but very different 500mb patterns existed thus leading to different results. Both years were in deeply negative PDO territory rising as we got to winter, this past year was some lowest numbers recorded. Both years had a -QBO state at 30mb and were descending (2023 was a tad bit later but still negative during these times).

You could make the argument that this past year had more of an El Nino kick to the atmosphere than the year where we had a strong/super Nino.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Actually recently Stratosphere warmings have been the anti-thesis: 23-24 had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings and a warm 10mb for the Winter and was the warmest winter on record for CONUS. March 2026 had a Stratosphere warming in the first half of the month, and that was the most extreme warm air temp anomaly month ever recorded for CONUS. The Nov 2025 Stratosphere warming preceding cold is actually the counter trend to what we've seen in the last 3 years, although I know Gawx posted some interesting things when it happened like 9/9 following January's are colder than average. Cold Winter Stratosphere's have correlated with more +AO's in the last 5-6 years, so that part is working.. but March 2025 and March 2026 did not have SSW impacts at all on the NAO. 

Yea, I mentioned that in my March recap...there is often a bonafide Pacific trough regime about 10 days following PV splits. Showed up in two of my primary analogs:

 

This split of the PV was then followed by a strong Pacific trough regime that resulted in record warmth about 7-10 days later, which was in fact very comparable to the sequence observed in the wake of the February 2018 analog-warming.

 

This is same phenomenon also occurred to a somewhat lesser extent in 2001, as very warm temperatures with highs in the 50s also occurred on February 20th, 2001, which is 10 days subsequent to the February 11th, 2001 PV split.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Completely agree with you. That model is playing catch up big time. It just made a huge jump in one run to a super El Niño, starting to match all the other guidance. That map makes zero sense. You are going to have a raging STJ on roids screaming across the south….solar irradiance, the south isn’t going to be warm in that setup. I expect it to make massive changes in the next few months

Edit: @40/70 Benchmark What’s going to be your go to weenie model when the CANSIPS inevitably flips in the next few runs? 

Very clever ploy in editing in the shout out to me, so as not to exhaust 1/5th of your daily allotment of posts!!

 'Cmon, dude....you know I'm not a JB.

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1982-1983 is the only super El Nino that had kind of a favorable WPO, which is likely why the NE managed near normal snowfall.

This was one of our most -WPO winters in years. Maybe it’s related to the warm pool east of Japan extending all the way across to California. When the warm pool was there and we had a cold pool near California it lead to the 22-23 winter and the strong +WPO. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was one of our most -WPO winters in years. Maybe it’s related to the warm pool east of Japan extending all the way across to California. When the warm pool was there and we had a cold pool near California it lead to the 22-23 winter and the strong +WPO. 
 

 

Yea, WPO was still + on the season technically per calculation, but no doubt there was more volatility this season. I think we are likely to see that continue.

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, WPO was still + on the season technically per calculation, but no doubt there was more volatility this season. I think we are likely to see that continue.

It’s interesting that the CFS is also showing a -WPO at least in December. 
 

 

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

That would be very much unlike any moderate or stronger El Niño on record (similar to what the prior run had). So, I still expect it to bust. This looks very strange for a strong+ Nino. The south being warmer than the north doesn’t happen with moderate+ Ninos due to the cooling associated with the stronger than average ST jet and not as cold up north due to the weaker polar jet: this looks much more Niña than Nino in the Conus.

I disagree. While the mean of a strong Nino is a milder than avg winter in the north, keep in mind theres tons of hugging the warmest and/or least wintry Ninos on record in here by some. Thats not how weather always works.

The strong El Nino of 1911-12 was a brutally cold winter, one of the coldest on record. It definitely didnt fit the mold of a typical strong Nino. And yes, even back then (before we hear about a different climate) strong Ninos generally produced mild winters, including 1877-78 (year without a winter in the upper midwest) and 1918-19 (a winter far less snowy than any ive ever experience).

Using the more common post-1950 list. Moderate are a mixed bag- several cold winters in there. And several of the strong Ninos averaged on the average to cool side of average here.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Completely agree with you. That model is playing catch up big time. It just made a huge jump in one run to a super El Niño, starting to match all the other guidance. That map makes zero sense. You are going to have a raging STJ on roids screaming across the south….solar irradiance, the south isn’t going to be warm in that setup. I expect it to make massive changes in the next few months

Edit: @40/70 Benchmark What’s going to be your go to weenie model when the CANSIPS inevitably flips in the next few runs? 

So the model is simultaneously correct in jumping to a stronger Nino, but INCORRECT in staying consistent with a cold winter look in the Great Lakes, similiar to the last 2 winters. Got it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

So the model is simultaneously correct in jumping to a stronger Nino, but INCORRECT in staying consistent with a cold winter look in the Great Lakes, similiar to the last 2 winters. Got it.

I have to be honest...I'm taking it with a grain of salt at this stage, too....to be fair to Adam. If it still looks like that in October, then it may be time to take it more seriously.

[LakePaste25]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have to be honest...I'm taking it with a grain of salt at this stage, too....to be fair to Adam. If it still looks like that in October, then it may be time to take it more seriously.

This is where I’m at as well. Until I see a more supportive evidence in the SSTA/MJO/WWB evolution that supports a CANSIPS-like outcome, I’m taking it with a grain of salt. Modelology vs. Meteorology. 

[michsnowfreak]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have to be honest...I'm taking it with a grain of salt at this stage, too....to be fair to Adam. If it still looks like that in October, then it may be time to take it more seriously.

Oh I do too. I take everything with a grain of salt at this stage. I have also said several times that I expect '26-27 winter to be milder here than the past 2. But these automatic assumptions of some torch winter and a super nino- not buying it at this stage.

[GaWx]

33 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I disagree. While the mean of a strong Nino is a milder than avg winter in the north, keep in mind theres tons of hugging the warmest and/or least wintry Ninos on record in here by some. Thats not how weather always works.

The strong El Nino of 1911-12 was a brutally cold winter, one of the coldest on record. It definitely didnt fit the mold of a typical strong Nino. And yes, even back then (before we hear about a different climate) strong Ninos generally produced mild winters, including 1877-78 (year without a winter in the upper midwest) and 1918-19 (a winter far less snowy than any ive ever experience).

Using the more common post-1950 list. Moderate are a mixed bag- several cold winters in there. And several of the strong Ninos averaged on the average to cool side of average here.

 Thanks.
1. You’re right that 1911-12 was colder in the Great Lakes/Midwest than in the South (see image below). So, good find and makes my statement wrong about ALL moderate or stronger El Niños on record not being colder in the N than in the S. I stand corrected.

 2. However, though not as cold, the South still had a pretty cold winter (2-4 BN), which is unlike the NN on the Cansips. So, in that regard, the Cansips is still not making sense to me. Also, 1911-2 was about as cold in the S as the NE.

3. By the way, 1911-12 was just a lower end moderate with a peak of +1.2 per Webb rather than strong. But it’s still an exception to my statement since I was referring to moderate or stronger:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

 

[LakePaste25]

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

Oh I do too. I take everything with a grain of salt at this stage. I have also said several times that I expect '26-27 winter to be milder here than the past 2. But these automatic assumptions of some torch winter and a super nino- not buying it at this stage.

The reason many of the big mets on twitter are going with super and east based is because most Ninos that have started out the way this one is starting out have gone that way, so they’re not just doing it because they have some inherent warm bias - they have data to back it up. But the thing about meteorology (and the broader sciences) is that past data is only right until otherwise proven wrong. 

[snowman19]

So the model is simultaneously correct in jumping to a stronger Nino, but INCORRECT in staying consistent with a cold winter look in the Great Lakes, similiar to the last 2 winters. Got it.

Well considering that it was showing a moderate/borderline strong El Niño on the last run then suddenly jumped to a super El Niño in one run, yea, it’s safe to assume it’s still adjusting and playing catch up to all the other guidance

[snowman19]

[MarcmmKU]

18 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yeah shutout may not be the best choice of words, I took it literally lol.

2015-16 was a better snow season here than 1997-98 or 2023-24. 

I do think uber strong ninos tend to me more negative for us than for you. Midwest is pretty resistant to terrible snow years. Not the case on the coast, even interior NE.