2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Cobalt]

 

Their methodology has a pretty good track record. This does not seem too far fetched

[WinterWolf]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Steve D winter outlook

 

https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2026/10/30/winter-forecast-2026-27/

I like his “high potential” of what can go wrong on the cold side ….that’d be pretty cool. 

[GaWx]

Recent 10 day mean CFS runs have warmed for Feb:

10 days ago:

 

Today:

[GaWx]

43 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

Their methodology has a pretty good track record. This does not seem too far fetched

Cosgrove’s just released Nov forecast disagrees just slightly :

 I think that CWG will verify much more closely based on the Euro Weeklies.

[snowman19]

Very strong signal for a warm November IMO

[qg_omega]

54 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

Their methodology has a pretty good track record. This does not seem too far fetched

Looks like warmest CONUS November, December ever 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand that it's true, but given the rarity of blizzards of that magnitude, it just seems tone-deaf.  I'm not angry...I just don't get it....sure, the anomaly with respect to the warmth is more impressive statistically speaking, but anyone with a pulse is more compelled by the anomaly that is magnificently impacting their sensible weather in the short-term. Focusing on the blizzard that is dropping 30" in your drive way and understanding that CC is real are not mutually exclusive...why is their this tacit mindset that you're in denial unless you're strutting around nude on main street with a banner touting your ever-expanding Hadley Cell. Shit, strap on a loin-cloth and enjoy the fruits of ma-nature; smoke 'em if ya got 'em, as fleeting as they may be.

I mean, I got married, had 4 kids, launched a career and purchased a home..."geez, look at that guy, he's in denial about his own mortality"...

"Why bother, he's just going to die anyway, idiot"-

What weather enthusiast wouldnt marvel about how warm it is in Phoenix when theres a blizzard in his own backyard? 

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Very strong signal for a warm November IMO
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yet, the Euro-AIFS shows decent snow in southern Canada the 1st 15 days of November. I'd show further north, but Pivotal doesn't offer that map. 

Even some in the NE US.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks like warmest CONUS November, December ever 

You predict that every year.

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Cosgrove’s just released Nov forecast disagrees just slightly :

 I think that CWG will verify much more closely based on the Euro Weeklies.

Bamwx likes a cool November 

[snowman19]

Yet, the Euro-AIFS shows decent snow in southern Canada the 1st 15 days of November. I'd show further north, but Pivotal doesn't offer that map. 
Even some in the NE US.

Ok

[michsnowfreak]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Bamwx likes a cool November 

The first half of November will definitely be warmer than avg. November (at least here) is the most rapidly changing month of the entire year from first day to last. So with the natural transition from Fall to winter alone, I would expect the second half to be solidly colder than the first, but in the end, highly confident anyone in the north finishes the month on the cool side of normal is an ill-advised call.