2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LakePaste25]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

One thing is for sure. These ridiculous, bombastic claims on twitter today that 2009-10 is the best “analog” for this winter are going to go down in flames. That is quite possibly the worst analog in the entire history of mankind. It’s actually laughable and embarrassing that anyone would think that’s a perfect match for this year. Fantasy, cope, deep denial, fake news, delusion and wishcasting at its finest

Yeah, the pacific vortex being much further west in December 2009 allowed the blocking pattern to pin TPVs under the block. The vortex is much closer to the west coast with these E based events, so even with a good blocking pattern the cold would be very fleeting as the vortex pushing warm air into canada will try to scour it out. 

2009:

Now: 

 

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Overall much too cool a forecast for the CONUS in October since we are in top 5 warmth territory.

 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

@climatologist49.bsky.social

 

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After finishing with the record warmest July, the record warmest August, and the record warmest September, the Contiguous U.S. is on pace to have the 4th warmest October on record. The warmest, 1963, was 4.8F above normal. It's still possible that this October could move higher up the list.

 

11:30 AM · Oct 23, 2026

Great news. Warmer temps, less energy consumption, and less pollutants. Aren't you celebrating? 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Yeah, the pacific vortex being much further west in December 2009 allowed the blocking pattern to pin TPVs under the block. The vortex is much closer to the west coast with these E based events, so even with a good blocking pattern the cold would be very fleeting as the vortex pushing warm air into canada will try to scour it out. 

2009:

Now: 

 

You're comparing October to December. Don't you think that's probably not a fair comparison to draw any conclusions for this year since we're 5 weeks from the start of December and 9.5 from the end?

[MJO812]

I haven't even seen one post on twitter about 2009-2010. No one is claiming that 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I haven't even seen one post on twitter about 2009-2010. No one is claiming that 

Sit tight! Lol

[snowman19]

There are many more. Absolute clown show on there

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Sit tight! Lol

Told ya'!  Lol

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There are many more. Absolute clown show on there

 

 

Thank you for posting. I thought you like Judah Cohen.

[LakePaste25]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You're comparing October to December. Don't you think that's probably not a fair comparison to draw any conclusions for this year since we're 5 weeks from the start of December and 9.5 from the end?

Guaranteed, take it to the bank that the vortex will not be even close to as west as 2009 in December in the monthly mean. The OLR coming out of the tropical pacific is already much further east-based. 

[snowman19]

Thank you for posting. I thought you like Judah Cohen.

He’s going to be wrong again. Just like he was back in 2015

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

He’s going to be wrong again. Just like he was back in 2015

Its only October.  Too early to say who will be wrong or right 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Great news. Warmer temps, less energy consumption, and less pollutants. Aren't you celebrating? 

They say a perfect environment for humans to thrive is a global temp 5-7F warmer. 

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Great news. Warmer temps, less energy consumption, and less pollutants. Aren't you celebrating? 

In terms of most people who have had much lower early season heating demand with such high energy costs these days it’s a big help to their finances.

The average people I speak to off this forum has been very happy with how warm the winters have become since the 2015-2016 super El Niño.

So this board is a real minority in terms of the general populace which would rather spend their winters in Florida than the Northern States. 

Internal migration has been to the sunbelt from the colder climates across the CONUS. But there has been shift to this pattern in the last few years. 

 

[forkyfork]

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Great news. Warmer temps, less energy consumption, and less pollutants. Aren't you celebrating? 

[Cobalt]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

They say a perfect environment for humans to thrive is a global temp 5-7F warmer. 

..except for the 2 billion or so folks who rely on stable glaciers for irrigation, water supply. Also the 1.5 billion or so people who live within 10km of a coastline.