2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

40 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

After huge busts the last 2 winters, this one could've been in the bag. Milder than avg winter, easy call with a strong nino. But thats not enough. Every seasonal forecast is now way too cool . Take the Euro for instance. It was way too warm in the east last winter. BUT in 2023-24 it wasnt warm enough, so just use that. In fact, let's just round up to +20° for everyone and no snow anywhere. 

On 10/5, I posted a detailed analysis of how the Oct Euro did for winter for the 9 years 2017-25:

 

Tally:

-did well in 19 and esp. 17

-did pretty well 21

-did pretty badly 23, 22, 20, 18

-did terribly 25, 24

-too cold both El Niños in SE and 1 of 2 in NE

-NE: too warm on 4, close on 3, too cold on 2

-SE: too warm on 3, close on 2, too cold on 4

[michsnowfreak]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

On 10/5, I posted a detailed analysis of how the Oct Euro did for winter for the 9 years 2017-25:

 

Tally:

-did well in 19 and esp. 17

-did pretty well 21

-did pretty badly 23, 22, 20, 18

-did terribly 25, 24

-too cold both El Niños in SE and 1 of 2 in NE

-NE: too warm on 4, close on 3, too cold on 2

-SE: too warm on 3, close on 2, too cold on 4

Good work! Here's the noaa comparison.

[MJO812]

8 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I will assume, unless you mention otherwise, the latest Euro forecast. What if the Euro or other models cool in November? Still warmer than the Euro?

Some people just love forecasting based off enso and ignore the other factors. 

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I will assume, unless you mention otherwise, the latest Euro forecast. What if the Euro or other models cool in November? Still warmer than the Euro?

Yes, still warmer than the Euro for the DJF period averaged out.

11 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

EXACTLY!!! And november was solidly colder than avg. February was the torch month of 97-98.

Each of the winter months in 1997-1998 were very warm. The warmth in December 1997 was focused in the Upper Plains and progressed eastward in January and February. 

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think you can totally discount the loss of MC forcing, though....so don't count your carbon footprints before they are made.

We haven’t had MC forcing going back to the spring and have had no shortage of record warmth across the CONUS. Also remember 1997-1998 super El Niño had no MC forcing and was one of the warmest winters up until that time. So the moral of the story is that nearly anywhere that +30 C warm pool forcing sets up in the tropics is going to produce intervals of record warmth. 

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

After huge busts the last 2 winters, this one could've been in the bag. Milder than avg winter, easy call with a strong nino. But thats not enough. Every seasonal forecast is now way too cool . Take the Euro for instance. It was way too warm in the east last winter. BUT in 2023-24 it wasnt warm enough, so just use that. In fact, let's just round up to +20° for everyone and no snow anywhere. 

 

What you don’t realize is that stations in the CONUS have had 17 DJF months across most winters since the temperature baseline jump in December 2015 exceeding +10 in spots.

I am also sure you probably aren’t aware that none of the seasonal models successfully forecast any of these 17 DJF records for the given locations before the month in question began from 1 month or more ahead of when the months began.

The Euro forecasts issued on the 5th of each of those months were sometimes even too cool for where the warmest conditions were located. Especially when the warmth was focused from the mid to later portions of those months. It generally did better when the warmth began early in the month and persisted.

Heck, you would be hard-pressed to find many model forecasts that showed those areas even +5 or warmer.

These record +10 months have occurred under a wide variety of ENSO conditions. While seasonal forecasts can sometimes successfully show the locations of the warmth, they always miss the magnitude of the warmth.

Remember our last much weaker super El Niño in 2023-2024 produced a +10 winter averaged out over 3 months in the Upper Midwest. The Euro forecast  that region to be near average so it was 10° too cool. 

So it’s not being controversial or edgy to state that there will probably be multiple +10 months from December to March this winter that none of the seasonal models are indicating right now. 

The models like the Euro forecast in °C so we have to convert. The warmest it has for  this winter near the Northern Tier is +2C or greater. This translates to +3.6° F or warmer. I will take the over on that where it’s currently placing the warmest potential. 

[snowman19]

Agree with Bluewave. Unlike 2015. the MC forcing has been totally non-existent since spring. Very 1997 like in that respect. And as far as ignoring factors more important than ENSO, there are no factors more important than the strongest super El Nino in history. It is massive and it will be the main driver this winter, by far and away, elephant in the room, totally and completely overwhelming. An overwhelming signal this absurdly strong, with record/extreme latent and sensible heat release to the atmosphere from the tropical PAC is going to trump all else (weather moves west to east), it totally dominates the forcing and the global heat budget. The extratropical -PDO (with the relative warmth off Japan doesn't even hold a candle to it), the AMO, the Atlantic, the Arctic, NAO/AO…..it is going to steam roll them

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yes, still warmer than the Euro for the DJF period averaged out.

Each of the winter months in 1997-1998 were very warm. The warmth in December 1997 was focused in the Upper Plains and progressed eastward in January and February. 

We haven’t had MC forcing going back to the spring and have had no shortage of record warmth across the CONUS. Also remember 1997-1998 super El Niño had no MC forcing and was one of the warmest winters up until that time. So the moral of the story is that nearly anywhere that +30 C warm pool forcing sets up in the tropics is going to produce intervals of record warmth. 

What you don’t realize is that stations in the CONUS have had 17 DJF months across most winters since the temperature baseline jump in December 2015 exceeding +10 in spots.

I am also sure you probably aren’t aware that none of the seasonal models successfully forecast any of these 17 DJF records for the given locations before the month in question began from 1 month or more ahead of when the months began.

The Euro forecasts issued on the 5th of each of those months were sometimes even too cool for where the warmest conditions were located. Especially when the warmth was focused from the mid to later portions of those months. It generally did better when the warmth began early in the month and persisted.

Heck, you would be hard-pressed to find many model forecasts that showed those areas even +5 or warmer.

These record +10 months have occurred under a wide variety of ENSO conditions. While seasonal forecasts can sometimes successfully show the locations of the warmth, they always miss the magnitude of the warmth.

Remember our last much weaker super El Niño in 2023-2024 produced a +10 winter averaged out over 3 months in the Upper Midwest. The Euro forecast  that region to be near average so it was 10° too cool. 

So it’s not being controversial or edgy to state that there will probably be multiple +10 months from December to March this winter that none of the seasonal models are indicating right now. 

The models like the Euro forecast in °C so we have to convert. The warmest it has for  this winter near the Northern Tier is +2C or greater. This translates to +3.6° F or warmer. I will take the over on that where it’s currently placing the warmest potential. 

Im aware of all of that. Models always smooth things out. There will always be warmer areas....and colder areas. The Euro seasonal was too warm multiple times for the east the past handful of winters. Do i doubt that someone somewhere will have a +10 month? Not at all. To say that its going to be way warmer everywhere is the part I have issue with. Actually, im really more interested in snow. We all have tirelessly agreed it will be a mild winter, despite some troll comments implying the mysterious never-to-be-found posters calling for a cold winter....but these wild posts (not by you) that no one gets snow. Lol. I live in a state where the license plate says "water winter wonderland" and somehow el nino will take away all our snow 

[GaWx]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

On 10/5, I posted a detailed analysis of how the Oct Euro did for winter for the 9 years 2017-25:

 

Tally:

-did well in 19 and esp. 17

-did pretty well 21

-did pretty badly 23, 22, 20, 18

-did terribly 25, 24

-too cold both El Niños in SE and 1 of 2 in NE

-NE: too warm on 4, close on 3, too cold on 2

-SE: too warm on 3, close on 2, too cold on 4

 

21 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Im aware of all of that. Models always smooth things out. There will always be warmer areas....and colder areas. The Euro seasonal was too warm multiple times for the east the past handful of winters. Do i doubt that someone somewhere will have a +10 month? Not at all. To say that its going to be way warmer everywhere is the part I have issue with. Actually, im really more interested in snow. We all have tirelessly agreed it will be a mild winter, despite some troll comments implying the mysterious never-to-be-found posters calling for a cold winter....but these wild posts (not by you) that no one gets snow. Lol. I live in a state where the license plate says "water winter wonderland" and somehow el nino will take away all our snow 

As my analysis shows above, the Oct Euro hasn’t even been close with its winter prog the last 4 years:

24 25: too warm

22 23: too cold

 Out of the last 9 years, it didn’t do well 6 of the 9 years. So, it’s likely pretty clueless based on this.

[LakePaste25]

Weeklies really get that active southern stream going in early November:

 

 

[ensonerd1233e343]

17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I changed my stance on that a bit...it's not a bad QBO analog....only rEAL weak spot is solar.

 

 

17 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is probably the warmest of the seasonal guidance. Remember that model was much too cool going into the 2023-2024 winter.

This winter forecast is even warmer than that one was. So my guess is significantly warmer than the current Euro is showing.

 

 

Right and how did the euro do in 24-25 an 25-26?

Its not overhoting cold by that much

[ensonerd1233e343]

5 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

 

 

Right and how did the euro do in 24-25 an 25-26?

Its not overhoting cold by that much

My point is just because it overshot cold in 2023 doesnt mean it will do it this year

[GaWx]

33 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

My point is just because it overshot cold in 2023 doesnt mean it will do it this year

Nothing’s even close to a certainty. 2026 and 2023 are not even close in magnitude and 2023 never even got stronger than high end moderate as well as being way less E based in winter (close to basin-wide) vs where 26-7 is heading: these are the official relative anoms:

                      1+2       3         4       3.4

2023    9      2.27     1.51     0.45      0.91

2026    9      3.94     2.97    -0.02      2.06

 

2023   12      0.68     1.48     0.73      1.38
2024    1     -0.02     1.15     0.70      1.03
2024    2      0.16     0.78     0.50      0.84

 

Also, 2026’s PDO is much less negative than 2023’s:

2023 -1.24 -1.79 -2.50 -3.13 -2.46 -2.67 -2.44 -2.02 -2.52 -1.88 -1.16 -1.20
2024 -1.48 -1.33 -1.27

2026 -0.87 -0.79 -1.18 -1.28 -1.64 -1.32 -1.35 -1.12 -0.74

[GaWx]

To add to the above, the ‘23 Jul-Sep MJO was much more MC/IO oriented than the nonexistent MC/IO of ‘26:

’23:

 

‘26:

[bluewave]

On 10/16/2026 at 10:32 AM, roardog said:

The North American pattern has looked nothing like 1997 to this point. 1997 had a cold November for much of the country. I’m skeptical that we see that same pattern this year. 1997 also had a wintrier pattern the first half of winter than the second. I’m also skeptical of that. We may very well end up with the same results as that winter when all is said and done but if the progression and the way we get there is completely different than is tough to say it’s a match IMO.

December 1997 started out record warm across the Northern Tier. But it took until January and February for the record warmth to build east.

Every super El Niño has a slightly different fingerprint. So the months which have the absolute warmest overall departures can vary a bit among events.

Even that winter back in the much cooler 1990s was able to string together three +10 months at various locations. 

December to March 2015-2016 had two +10 months. December to February 2023-2024 also had two. 

None of the seasonal models prior to those winters indicated such extreme warmth would occur. As they tend to greatly underestimate the actual warmth with super El Niño events. 

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

December 1997 started out record warm across the Northern Tier. But it took until January and February for the record warmth to build east.

Every super El Niño has a slightly different fingerprint. So the months which have the absolute warmest overall departures can vary a bit among events.

Even that winter back in the much cooler 1990s was able to string together three +10 months at various locations. 

December to March 2015-2016 had two +10 months. December to February 2023-2024 also had two. 

None of the seasonal models prior to those winters indicated such extreme warmth would occur. As they tend to greatly underestimate the actual warmth with super El Niño events. 

 

 

 

 

Well at least you can cozy up to an open window this winter with your favorite book.