2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

That is an east-based El Nino with a basin-wide expression across the hemisphere on the EURO...no doubt. I think those expecting a season completely devoid of winter weather on the east coast are going to be in for a surprise if that model is correct.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Same charts show increases in Nino 3 and Nino 1.2 and decreases in Nino 4 compared to the early August forecasts.

 

They should if they are incorporating real-time data.

[OSUmetstud]

Congrats abq and houston

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think we need to be careful here because the heat sink-oceans are changing the way we need to view the hemisphere when doing seasonal outlooks....there are some illusions taking place with regard to how 2023 appeared to mimic a Modoki configuration at the surface and was actually a La Nino-hybird, as this year maybe ostensibly an east-based deal acting more basin-wide as by product of all of that warmth tugging everything westward relative to expectation.

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Congrats abq and houston

 

Monthly T2 DJF

 

[mitchnick]

Monthly precip DJF

[OSUmetstud]

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Monthly T2 DJF

 

I used 850t anomaly because I feel thats a better metric for snow but either way. 

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I used 850t anomaly because I feel thats a better metric for snow but either way. 

Don't disagree, but more for my Mid Atlantic peeps who have suffered through enough snow falling within 500' asl with rain/mix at the surface. I witnessed it enough times living/working under or near flight paths near BWI to scar my weenie memory. Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1958, 1987 and 1973 look like best matches to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Line up well:

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Monthly T2 DJF

 

A +1.5C (+2.7F) winter in Detroit is a DJF temp of 31.1F.

A -1.0C (-1.8F) winter in Houston is a DJF temp of 53.4F.

I better pack my cowboy boots and hat now 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks to be slightly less MC influence than 2016.

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1958, 1987 and 1973 look like best matches to me.

I’d love this combination for the SE US!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, GaWx said:

I’d love this combination for the SE US!

1973 is the one I don't like, but I don't expect the strongly +AO that that season had...even NAO maybe more favorable. Biggest issue here maybe the ridge suppressing storms at times.

[GaWx]

The just released WCS daily PDO for yesterday was up to -0.58! They haven’t been this high since way back in late June. It has risen ~1.07 over just the last 10 days. It had dipped to as low as -2.19 on Aug 1st. In case anyone is wondering, it hasn’t been red since it went barely positive on ~6 dates between 3/31/25 and 4/19/25 (highest was ~+0.08 on 4/5/25). One can also see it barely missed going red on 3/1/26. But unlike then and Mar-Apr of ‘25, there’s obviously now a supportive for a higher PDO full fledged very strong Nino:

[GaWx]

Latest 10 day CFSv2 ens mean for RONI shows the downward trend continuing: note for SON through NDJ how much lower are the blue lines (the most recent 8 members) vs the red lines (the earliest 8 members):

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, GaWx said:

Latest 10 day CFSv2 ens mean for RONI shows the downward trend continuing: note for SON through NDJ how much lower are the blue lines (the most recent 8 members) vs the red lines (the earliest 8 members):

Hitting my the top end of my 2.4 to 2.6 range...

[sebastiaan1973]

A more negative NAO when winter progresses. Due to the stratosphere?

[EasternLI]

Another really impressive thing about this event is how effective it is in shutting down the Atlantic hurricane season. So far it has been at least. Record high wind shear for August. This is following a record high July also. These have led to a record low ACE value in the Atlantic for this date currently.

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Another really impressive thing about this event is how effective it is in shutting down the Atlantic hurricane season. So far it has been at least. Record high wind shear for August. This is following a record high July also. These have led to a record low ACE value in the Atlantic for this date currently.

Significantly stronger vertical wind shear than 2015 and 1997.