2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks warm/wet like many have said. Probably under 10" snows in the NYC metro.  Very 97-98 like 

Yep nice stj train. How do you know it shows 10 inches ? People need to stop making statements. 1 storm can do wonders.

[GaWx]

 Comparison of Sept ‘23 Euro for DJF 23-4 and Sept ‘26 for DJF 26-7: ~twice the contrast N to S ‘26-7 vs ‘23-4 in E US 

’23:

 

‘26:

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Comparison of Sept ‘23 Euro for DJF 23-4 and Sept ‘26 for DJF 26-7: ~twice the contrast N to S ‘26-7 vs ‘23-4 in E US 

’23:

 

‘26:

what does this have to do with el nino

[GaWx]

H5 comparisons Euro Sep fcasts for JFM ‘27 vs ‘24: larger contrasts worldwide/E US!

‘24: very little >40m (<5% of the globe) and no <-40m

 

 

‘27: much more >40m (~1/2 the globe) and sig. more <-40m (3 areas vs none in ‘24)

[LakePaste25]

Just now, GaWx said:

H5 comparisons Euro Sep fcasts for JFM ‘27 vs ‘24: larger contrasts worldwide/E US!

‘24: very little >40m (<5% of the globe) and no <40m

 

 

‘27: much more >40m (~1/2 the globe) and sig. more <40m (3 areas vs none in ‘24)

It’s basically just leaning into a stronger signal for a canonical Nino pattern because the Nino itself is progged to be much stronger than 23-24. 

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

It’s basically just leaning into a stronger signal for a canonical Nino pattern because the Nino itself is progged to be much stronger than 23-24. 

I’ll add that the globe is warmer over last 3 years helping to add to the huge increase in >+40m anomalies.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Looks very much canonical east based nino. Will be interesting to see how the -pdo base state interacts with it.

I'm not sure that I characterize much it's leaning into the -NAO as "very much canonical east based Nino".

Aug:

 

Sept:

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure that I characterize much it's leaning into the -NAO as "very much canonical east based Nino".

Aug:

 

Sept:

 

 

 

 

Let's hope not too much of a typically good thing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Let's hope not too much of a typically good thing.

I'm not concerned about that at all. We'll need it the year, IMHO....will be the difference between infrastructure-paralyzing paste and wind-swept sheets of rain.

That is absurd for February....like 2010, stuff.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not concerned about that at all. We'll need it the year, IMHO....will be the difference between infrastructure-paralyzing paste and wind-swept sheets of rain.

That is absurd for February....like 2010, stuff.

Boinnnnnng!!!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Problem is I don't buy it given the magnitude and orientation of El Niño along with the QBO and solar cycle...it was kind of doing the same thing in Sept. 2023.

 

 

 

Feb 2024 ended up with a +1.09 NAO.... +.76 DJFM mean NAO, so it whiffed on that.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Boinnnnnng!!!

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Problem is I don't buy it given the magnitude and orientation of El Niño along with the QBO and solar cycle...it was kind of doing the same thing in Sept. 2023.

 

 

 

Feb 2024 ended up with a +1.09 NAO.... +.76 DJFM mean NAO, so it whiffed on that.

 

Shrivel!!!

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

Sept 2026:

 

Sept 2023:

[40/70 Benchmark]

Forecast -NAO is def. more severe this year than 2023, but it was biased too negatively in 2023, and I suspect that is again the case. That being said, this reality is certainly not prohibitive to some intervals of blocking, I just think the model is overdoing it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

One thing I will say is that with somewhat less MC influence, perhaps it may be a it easier to pop a -NAO during the coming season, but still a lot working against it in the grand scheme of things....solar cycle is about as hostile as it gets with geomagnetic energy peaking a couple of years removed from solar max.

[mitchnick]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Problem is I don't buy it given the magnitude and orientation of El Niño along with the QBO and solar cycle...it was kind of doing the same thing in Sept. 2023.

 

 

 

Feb 2024 ended up with a +1.09 NAO.... +.76 DJFM mean NAO, so it whiffed on that.

 

The Euro's 23/24 winter forecast just stunk. As I  previously posted, the Cfs2 was already showing a warm winter by mid September. This year, the difference between the 2 right now is not that great and they are similar to the Cansips, Jamstec, and NMME. So it's going to be a massive failure by all modeling or a consensus success. The only caveat being there's still time for modeling to change to something better or worse depending on one's perspective .

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

Sept 2026:

 

Sept 2023:

Here are the relevant SLP maps for JFM NAO:

JFM ’24: strong -NAO

JFM ‘27: even stronger -NAO, which jibes with your comparison of JFM ‘24 to JFM ‘27.

 

 However, note that there are stronger SLP contrasts worldwide in ‘27 vs ‘24 and not just in the NAO region. Note that in ‘24, only ~1% has +2+ mb vs ~~10% in ‘27. Similarly, the % with -2- mb is sig. higher in ‘27 vs ‘24. Not sure what to make of that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Here are the relevant SLP maps for JFM NAO:

JFM ’24: strong -NAO

JFM ‘27: even stronger -NAO, which jibes with your comparison of JFM ‘24 to JFM ‘27.

 

 However, note that there are stronger SLP contrasts worldwide in ‘27 vs ‘24 and not just in the NAO region. Note that in ‘24, only ~1% has +2+ mb vs ~~10% in ‘27. Similarly, the % with -2- mb is sig. higher in ‘27 vs ‘24.

It kinds of seems like the same forecast from 2023, just amplified, which doesn't engender a ton of confidence from me.

[GaWx]

 The worst E US Sept heatwave on record was during El Niño (1925).

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No bueno...this is what Kev was getting at....if you're wondering why the EURO is warm despite a big -NAO, this is why.

 

[GaWx]

Lol!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^ Should get some 500mb effect in the N. Pacific if that forecast verifies for early Oct

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I didn't really notice this before - quite a +AO pattern setting up

May - Sept +AO:

2024

2025

2026

Looks super-warm in the Mid-latitudes

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Should be interesting to see if we see a +PNA N. Pacific low in October and how much of it. This is quite a streak over the past 7 years:

Which has obviously preceded the Winter

*2023 was the most n. pacific low +pna of the analog set. 

 

[GaWx]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^ Should get some 500mb effect in the N. Pacific if that forecast verifies for early Oct

Although this 12Z 9/5/26 CFSv2 ens. AAM fcast is THE highest I’ve seen for the entire 35 day period, I realize that it has a + bias, especially the further out in the forecast period. I still haven’t seen anything forecasted at 4+ to verify even closely and even much of the 3+ forecast days have been overdone.
 

 This has 4+ for all 4 members by day 11 (Sept 15th), which along with the 0Z 9/5/26 forecast is at the earliest I’ve ever seen that high. It has 3+ starting on Sep. 8th. But as I alluded to, many runs had 3+ for all of mid to late Aug and all of Sept and few, if any, hit 3+ since mid Aug. it even dipped briefly to just below +2 in late Aug! 

 In this case, I expect it will reach 3+ within a few days based on how steep it has it rising now. But regarding it hitting 4+ Sep. 15th or even after, I’ll believe it when I see it!