2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[The Iceman]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its crazy to think an area that relatively far north can have an entire snow season with 0.2" or 1.2".

I’m even further north(20 miles NE of Philly) and have had 2 seasons with 1.5” or less since 2019-2020. (2019-20 and 22-23)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Similarities to 2025 over the past 5 months

2025 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA
2026 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA

2025 Aug +PNA
2026 Aug +PNA

2025 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO
2026 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its crazy to think an area that relatively far north can have an entire snow season with 0.2" or 1.2".

I had 1.8 that winter.

[mitchnick]

11 hours ago, MJO812 said:

How much longer are people going to dismissals what this is showing ? We are getting closer. 

Maybe this winter will not be as bad as people think.

I wonder if the Cfs2 winter 23/24 temp forecast from 9/11/23 was discounted? I guarantee you it was...but it would have been by me! Lol

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/202309/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

They're not always climo come September. Cfs2 was actually on the right path come early September, 2023. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Cold water developing to the west. Also subsurface anomalies approaching -3c below 150E. We may be headed to La Nina for 27-28. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Cold water developing to the west. Also subsurface anomalies approaching -3c below 150E. We may be headed to La Nina for 27-28. 

83-84 and 16-17 early leaders in the clubhouse....

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Aug was the 5th consecutive month of +AO. Here's how that historically rolls forward to the cold season

Doesn't this fly in the face of your theory of summer +AO leading to winter time -AO?

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

83-84 and 16-17 early leaders in the clubhouse....

73-74 if it gets stronger...

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doesn't this fly in the face of your theory of summer +AO leading to winter time -AO?

Since 2012 May-Sept SLP 60-90N is reversing 60-90N H5 for the Winter. A lot of that raw +correlation is NAO-related. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Since 2012 May-Sept SLP 60-90N is reversing 60-90N H5 for the Winter. A lot of that +correlation is NAO-related. 

So that implies +AO/-NAO? I'll bet against that-

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So that implies +AO/-NAO? I'll bet against that-

-AO/+NAO. There is like 90% corrlation between nao and ao, mostly over Greenland. The actual 60-90N Im calling AO but officially it's 90% correlated to NAO domain, further SE. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-AO/+NAO. There is like 90% corrlation between nao and ao, mostly over Greenland. The actual 60-90N Im calling AO but officially it's 90% correlated to NAO domain, further SE. 

Ah, okay...that makes sense. I agree with that.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 Super east-based Nino's on record since 1948 (ONI) [72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, 23-24] had the following ENSO +1-2 years after (RONI):

9 La Nina's
1 ENSO Neutral
0 El Nino

+1 year:

5 La Nina's
0 ENSO Neutral
0 El Nino

+2 year:

4 La Nina's
1 ENSO Neutral
0 El Nino

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I wonder if the Cfs2 winter 23/24 temp forecast from 9/11/23 was discounted? I guarantee you it was...but it would have been by me! Lol

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/202309/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

They're not always climo come September. Cfs2 was actually on the right path come early September, 2023. 

People were saying canadian would change by September. Well. Its held steady. Not saying its right, but it has not caved to a mild winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

People were saying canadian would change by September. Well. Its held steady. Not saying its right, but it has not caved to a mild winter. 

Often times when seasonal guidance misses, it never caves....it just misses.