40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 33 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Cold water developing to the west. Also subsurface anomalies approaching -3c below 150E. We may be headed to La Nina for 27-28. 83-84 and 16-17 early leaders in the clubhouse.... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Aug was the 5th consecutive month of +AO. Here's how that historically rolls forward to the cold season Doesn't this fly in the face of your theory of summer +AO leading to winter time -AO? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 83-84 and 16-17 early leaders in the clubhouse.... 73-74 if it gets stronger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 2 Author Share Posted September 2 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Doesn't this fly in the face of your theory of summer +AO leading to winter time -AO? Since 2012 May-Sept SLP 60-90N is reversing 60-90N H5 for the Winter. A lot of that raw +correlation is NAO-related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Since 2012 May-Sept SLP 60-90N is reversing 60-90N H5 for the Winter. A lot of that +correlation is NAO-related. So that implies +AO/-NAO? I'll bet against that- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 2 Author Share Posted September 2 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: So that implies +AO/-NAO? I'll bet against that- -AO/+NAO. There is like 90% corrlation between nao and ao, mostly over Greenland. The actual 60-90N Im calling AO but officially it's 90% correlated to NAO domain, further SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: -AO/+NAO. There is like 90% corrlation between nao and ao, mostly over Greenland. The actual 60-90N Im calling AO but officially it's 90% correlated to NAO domain, further SE. Ah, okay...that makes sense. I agree with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 2 Author Share Posted September 2 5 Super east-based Nino's on record since 1948 (ONI) [72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, 23-24] had the following ENSO +1-2 years after (RONI): 9 La Nina's 1 ENSO Neutral 0 El Nino +1 year: 5 La Nina's 0 ENSO Neutral 0 El Nino +2 year: 4 La Nina's 1 ENSO Neutral 0 El Nino 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 3 hours ago, mitchnick said: I wonder if the Cfs2 winter 23/24 temp forecast from 9/11/23 was discounted? I guarantee you it was...but it would have been by me! Lol https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/202309/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html They're not always climo come September. Cfs2 was actually on the right path come early September, 2023. People were saying canadian would change by September. Well. Its held steady. Not saying its right, but it has not caved to a mild winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 49 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: People were saying canadian would change by September. Well. Its held steady. Not saying its right, but it has not caved to a mild winter. Often times when seasonal guidance misses, it never caves....it just misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 2 Author Share Posted September 2 Its 0.0 month lead forecasts are so bad that it will probably hold that look up until Dec lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Its 0.0 month lead forecasts are so bad that it will probably hold that look up until Dec lol Or maybe its right . The next two runs will be key . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 2 Author Share Posted September 2 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Or maybe its right . The next two runs will be key . I think seeing our first Aleutian low of the El Nino will be key 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 The summer 500 mb pattern was as opposite as you can get from a developing super El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere. The 500mb ridges dominated where the troughs were supposed to be. But the Southern Hemisphere response during their winter may give us some clues what to expect here. Notice how the 500mb ridges were stronger than the expected troughs. It was obvious near New Zealand and South America. This would translate into a weaker Aleutian Low and weaker low pressure near the Southeast U.S and or Western Atlantic than is usual for such a strong El Niño. Could mean a warmer more dominant ridge pattern over North America than is typically the case for a super El Niño event. Should this occur during our winter, then it would follow the general pattern regardless of ENSO of the 500mb ridges being more impressive than the troughs since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. https://www.pyreweather.org/map/?variable=height&level=500®ion=World&mode=anomaly&months=202606%2C202607%2C202608&fill_mode=shaded&climo_source=r2-monthly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 Record warmth summer and winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Similarities to 2025 over the past 5 months 2025 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA 2026 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA 2025 Aug +PNA 2026 Aug +PNA 2025 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO 2026 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO -AO/+PNA winter en route.....confirms what I had already figured. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Its 0.0 month lead forecasts are so bad that it will probably hold that look up until Dec lol Yes, and I'm not being facetious....quite literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Or maybe its right . The next two runs will be key . Sure, but we have good reasons to believe that it isn't. I could still doubt that you're one of NYC's finest after you show me your badge and a pic of you sleeping in the cruiser, but that doesn't change the facts. No runs are key if the model incessantly suffers from an erroneous initialization. Again, this doesn't necessarily mean an awful winter is en route, it just means that CANSIPS output is highly flawed. Maybe we will make out okay and score a HECS...both can be true, and in fact, I suspect that they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 3 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/histdata/ Its kind of a pain vs the others but at least it is still operational. @Stormchaserchuck1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Proceed with EXTREME caution using the Cansips 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: SE yes. But it does climo or better in other areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 Sorry but I cannot justify using a model that can’t even initialize the El Niño at its *current* initial state correctly. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 17 minutes ago, mitchnick said: SE yes. But it does climo or better in other areas. So it's going to be too low with heights in the southeast, but nail the northeast and mid atlantic? Good luck- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: So it's going to be too low with heights in the southeast, but nail the northeast and mid atlantic? Good luck- Well, by the shadings, it hasn't in the past been nailing any areas. But has been doing better in some areas over others. For example, last year it did well in parts of the MW, NE, and MA while missing out west. Plus, the bottom map is an average over the last 30 years from what I'm seeing; probably the top one too. I wonder how accuracy would change if only looking back the last 5 years when there are obviously improvements with modeling. I don't know about you, but there is an obvious concerted effort by the CC monetaryists, if I may call them that, to poo-poo any seasonal forecast that isn't a wall-to-wall Conus toaster oven. And I would put Jonathan Wall into that category based on the 100+ posts he's made that have shown up on this Board. Nobody knows with certainty how this winter will play out other than odds definitely favor AN in many areas of the Conus. But efforts to contradict/attack seasonal modeling are always a red flag to me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think seeing our first Aleutian low of the El Nino will be key Average for last 5 days ending 384 hours off the 0z Geps fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 35 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Average for last 5 days ending 384 hours off the 0z Geps fwiw. At least its showing up on modeling, now lets see if it actually verifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 OHC monthly rose to a new record high that last month had set (note these aren’t adjusted for GW in a “relative” sense, but they’re still very impressive): 2025 11 -0.02 -0.33 -0.46 2025 12 0.26 0.01 -0.03 2026 1 0.64 0.45 0.49 2026 2 1.08 1.02 1.15 2026 3 1.38 1.39 1.36 2026 4 1.85 2.07 2.24 2026 5 1.67 1.97 1.99 2026 6 1.79 2.14 2.26 2026 7 2.03 2.50 2.96 2026 8 2.19 2.75 3.20 The following image is for the same longitudes as that for the 3rd column and it jibes fairly well: Prior to 2026, this had been the record high for the last 2 columns: 1997 10 1.35 2.05 2.56 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 The new relative OISST (not ERSST) has just been released and the change from July jibes well for Nino 3.4 with the slope of the graphs we’ve been following (though as I’ve also been saying the weeklies/last 2 months are notably cooler than what the cyclonicwx graphs have been suggesting). 2026 7 2.84 1.73 0.34 1.38 2026 8 3.35 2.52 0.11 1.78 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_mthsst9120.txt This 1.78 is a new record high (back to 1981) for August Nino 3.4 as it barely beats the 1.74 of 1997. Here are the warmest Augusts since 1981: 2026 1.78 1997 1.74 2015 1.30 1987 1.24 1982 1.19 1991 0.82 2002 0.80 1994 0.72 2004 0.71 2023 0.63 Note that Nino 3 rose twice as much and Nino 4 fell 0.23! Also, Nino 1+2 rose the 2nd most at 0.51. All of this indicates that this Nino has been becoming increasingly E based and that the W portion of Nino 3.4 is what is holding it back vs what model projections had been. Also, note that Nino 3.4 rose only 0.4C from the July avg to the Aug avg. I say “only” because several models were suggesting (as I’ve posted about several times) a record rapid rise for 3.4 of ~1C. It remains to be seen what the rise was per ERSST, but it’s clear that August didn’t warm nearly as much in 3.4 as model consensus had suggested, which has caused some at least near-term cooling of progs in some models’ recent runs. Here’s the latest OISST relative 3.4 chart through Sept 1st: STILL no sign of resumption of warming with it practically flat the last 31 days! The CDAS (not relative) agrees with the continuing flatness: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 To add to the above, here are Nino 3 and Nino 4 (note that these aren’t relative, but that’s ok since my point is to show the slopes): Nino 3: still a slow rise through Aug instead of nearly flat like 3.4: Nino 4: had been falling through Aug 17th though a bumpy net slow rise since: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 7 hours ago, qg_omega said: Record warmth summer and winter Screenshotted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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