so_whats_happening Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 The difference in overall depth of the warm anomalies looks to be an artifact of the -PDO still being around. During the 2023-24 Nino this was centered around 130-140W. We also are lacking a significant negative anomaly region developing near the Dateline. I gotta ask the question though are we seeing Nino take on a new form with SSTs the way they are globally? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 The strong left-sidedness of the MJO continues: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Per The Long Paddock website, which hasn’t shown a new SOI daily since July 2nd: June/July SOI values have been subject to an incorrect data feed. The values will return after the data source has been replaced and values are recalculated. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 11 hours ago, LakePaste25 said: [mention=13098]snowman19[/mention] 100%. The 30C isotherm is already east of the dateline and the EURO seasonal started showing this happening last month, projecting that the 30C isotherm will push all the way to 120W by November, which would be an all time record. I absolutely believe it given the huge WWBs we’ve been seeing since April. This year, unlike 2015, we have a complete trade wind reversal with WWBs/westerlies and DWKWs pushing well east of the dateline with no resistance….that is going to keep pushing the 30C warm pool east. We didn’t see that in 2015, in fact, we actually saw EWBs and the trade winds fighting back even up to this point in time…this year, not even close. The surface from region 3.4 to region 3, to region 1+2 is warmer and the subsurface is warmer than 2015 with more substantial WWBs and DWKWs. Region 4 is actually cooling now, also unlike 2015. The TC/typhoon parade projected to begin this month in the WPAC and the EPAC and the MJO progression is only going to reinforce it (WWBs, DWKWs) Wow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 The PDO continues to operate independently of El Nino. The more Niña-like pattern which resulted in record heat in the East caused the PDO to fall and the AMO to rise. This is a result of the strong mid-latitude ridges warming the ocean surface below. The Atlantic City, NJ with the airport on the edge of the Pine Barrens just tied its all-time highest temperature. Most other years above 100° were La Ninas like 2011 or weaker El Niños or more neutral years. Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1943-08-01 to 2026-07-06 1 106.0 2026-07-04 through 2026-07-04 - 106.0 1969-06-28 through 1969-06-28 2 105.0 2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03 - 105.0 2011-07-23 through 2011-07-23 - 105.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 3 104.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 4 103.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 5 102.0 2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25 - 102.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 102.0 2011-06-09 through 2011-06-09 - 102.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 102.0 1966-07-04 through 1966-07-04 - 102.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26 6 101.0 2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18 - 101.0 2007-08-08 through 2007-08-08 - 101.0 1993-07-10 through 1993-07-10 7 100.0 2019-07-21 through 2019-07-21 - 100.0 2012-07-07 through 2012-07-07 - 100.0 2011-07-24 through 2011-07-24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 13 hours ago, LakePaste25 said: @snowman19 8 hours ago, GaWx said: The strong left-sidedness of the MJO continues: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 The stagnation of the MJO on the lefthand side makes sense 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The stagnation of the MJO on the lefthand side makes sense As opposed to 2015, where it was either in the COD or 4-5-6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 18 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: As opposed to 2015, where it was either in the COD or 4-5-6 I get what @snowman19is saying....good shot it keeps going east, but I would prefer that as opposed to having it remain in the MC. Forcing probably won't remain in the Modoki zone, but give me east-based forcing over the MC-hybrid crap. At least with the former there should be some windows and it will be active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I get what @snowman19is saying....good shot it keeps going east, but I would prefer that as opposed to having it remain in the MC. Forcing probably won't remain in the Modoki zone, but give me east-based forcing over the MC-hybrid crap. At least with the former there should be some windows and it will be active. Yeah plus I think it’s likely to give us a better decade. Warm pool will recover somewhat after this year for sure, but we’re also removing a lot of ocean heat content this way, and it won’t be such an extreme gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 11 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: Yeah plus I think it’s likely to give us a better decade. Warm pool will recover somewhat after this year for sure, but we’re also removing a lot of ocean heat content this way, and it won’t be such an extreme gradient. I would bet my life that the 2030's are better for east coast winter enthusiasts than the 2020's....how much better is the focus of debate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 of course you think that 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: of course you think that Just like I thought this decade would be worse than the 2010's...and winter 1996-1997 would be worse than 1995-1996. It's not rocket science. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 7 minutes ago, forkyfork said: of course you think that We know you think this will be the warmest winter on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 i'm sure the +2c climate base state after this nino will be great for snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 8 hours ago, snowman19 said: 100%. The 30C isotherm is already east of the dateline and the EURO seasonal started showing this happening last month, projecting that the 30C isotherm will push all the way to 120W by November, which would be an all time record. I absolutely believe it given the huge WWBs we’ve been seeing since April. This year, unlike 2015, we have a complete trade wind reversal with WWBs/westerlies and DWKWs pushing well east of the dateline with no resistance….that is going to keep pushing the 30C warm pool east. We didn’t see that in 2015, in fact, we actually saw EWBs and the trade winds fighting back even up to this point in time…this year, not even close. The surface from region 3.4 to region 3, to region 1+2 is warmer and the subsurface is warmer than 2015 with more substantial WWBs and DWKWs. Region 4 is actually cooling now, also unlike 2015. The TC/typhoon parade projected to begin this month in the WPAC and the EPAC and the MJO progression is only going to reinforce it (WWBs, DWKWs) I would bet it ends up around 140W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 7 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i'm sure the +2c climate base state after this nino will be great for snow Any seasonal meteorologist worth a damn would understand that there are multidecadal trends and oscillations at play that are independent of the background warming.....they have all been about as hostile as it gets for east coast winter enthusiasts throughout the 2020s. If you feel the planet is going to warm enough to negate the more favorable shift of the multidecadal hemispheric trends and increased moisture availability, then I would be more than willing to wager against you. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 blah blah blah 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 snow, all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: blah blah blah Epitomizes your online contributions over the course of the past two decades....what a waste of a degree. Plenty of highly esteemed contributors like @bluewaveand @raindancewx are pretty painfully objective with regard to east coast winter prospects...it's not about that. You just don't offer much value not because you aren't capable, but you allocate all of your time and energy towards mindless trolling. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 the pac warm pool won't reload after this nino and we'll get dateline forcing forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 If we have another decade like this during the 2030s, then yes....I will assume we have reached a tipping point at which the back ground warming has rendered the pattern irrelevant for east coast snowfall prospects, but I am just not there yet. I think that's a pretty fair stance. Do I expect a repeat of the 2010's next decade? Probably not- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would bet it ends up around 140W. I don’t see any reason whatsoever to doubt it gets to 120W by November like the Euro seasonal shows, it’s already east of the dateline and still being pushed by the WWBs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I don’t see any reason whatsoever to doubt it gets to 120W by November like the Euro seasonal shows, it’s already east of the dateline and still being pushed by the WWBs “Lol yikes. The mean warm pool is incredibly far east at this stage of our El Nino event. As high as those SSTa are in the East Pacific now, this Super El Nino is honestly just getting started. Just wait til we advect in those 29-30C SSTs to the east later this year ” I don't mean it won't breach 120W...I am talking about there it will be centered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The stagnation of the MJO on the lefthand side makes sense Which, according to Usetobe (retired met from LWX), is exactly where we want it (just east of the DL) come winter. Can the mean forcing hold there come winter is, course, the question. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Which, according to Usetobe (retired met from LWX), is exactly where we want it (just east of the DL) come winter. Can the mean forcing hold there come winter is, course, the question. We'll see. It will probably shift eastward more, but just that the fact that it's made it there is very remarkable given what has taken place over the past 10 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Anyone have any insight as to if/when they are every going to calculate the QBO again? It hasn't updated since February and with each passing month it gets more difficult to select analogs with any degree of specificity. I wish they would just use the ERA 5 data base.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This is the latest RAOB update, the +QBO is still descending, now down to 40mb In other news, the +IOD gets going soon And the ++PMM continues I know the QBO will be positive...just looking for monthly numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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