2026-2027 El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Right now it's developing from the west and the east, signaling basin-wide. Nino 1+2 doesn't correlate as highly as a lead in April, surprisingly. Here is Nino 1+2 vs Nino 4 for +8months Dec SSTA

 

[LakePaste25]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^Right now it's developing from the west and the east, signaling basin-wide. Nino 1+2 doesn't correlate as highly as a lead in April, surprisingly. Here is Nino 1+2 vs Nino 4 for +8months Dec SSTA

 

Yup. 15-16 is a good example of a super that starts out east-based before going basin wide approaching winter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Cooler May?

NAO was 2nd highest monthly all time in March 2026. 12 weeks x 75 years = 900 analogs. The following May in totality of analogs is surprisingly cold:

CPC has it at least starting out this way

May before a later-in-the-year Nino 3.4 El Nino is pretty Neutral historically, except in the PNW

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nino 4 is the loading pattern for a Nino 3.4 El Nino. CDAS is currently much higher than CPC. 

This event is developing basin-wide like 2015-2016 or further west than most Strong Nino's. If it keeps developing further west at its core, I don't think it will go Super, but perhaps Strong, or per RONI high-end Moderate. 

Been my early hedge, as well. This doesn't necessarily preclude a very warm winter throughout the east, though.

[snowman19]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Been my early hedge, as well. This doesn't necessarily preclude a very warm winter throughout the east, though.

The +PMM correlation research leads me to believe that this one is east-based/EP

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The +PMM correlation research leads me to believe that this one is east-based/EP

April before a Nino 3.4-based El Nino has the +PMM

[Stormchaserchuck1]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Been my early hedge, as well. This doesn't necessarily preclude a very warm winter throughout the east, though.

The March '26 record +NAO, plus our tendency to go more -PDO relative to everything, and the Winter El Nino/+QBO combo, and NAO decadal + phase, where 20/20 months since 2011 with DJFM monthly NAO >1.11 being all positive! makes me currently lean warm as well. 

Really curious to see if we get a monster N. Pacific low this Winter though. If we don't get it, it means we have shifted into a different pattern vs 1980-2016, and the -PDO cycle may still be young. 

[LakePaste25]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Been my early hedge, as well. This doesn't necessarily preclude a very warm winter throughout the east, though.

Yeah. I fully believe mostly warm temps and strong or super. I see the difference between basin wide vs EP as “do we get a couple of more cold intrusions on the back side of winter to try to get something to phase with that supercharged southern stream, or is it extremely limited like 97-98?” It’s really not a question that can answered by even the most skilled mets this early on IMO.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

85% of our months are above average these days. The question is how we are relative to that 85% number

[snowman19]

26 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

April before a Nino 3.4-based El Nino has the +PMM

Research link: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other climate modes further complicate,and NPO%2C on ENSO evolution.

As per that research: 

“A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.”

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We'll see. It's a strong PMM spike relative to the PDO so this is a good test year. 

[snowman19]

Here comes the next WWB and downwelling KW for May. It is also likely to spawn more big TC’s with the associated WWBs behind them…..
 

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

Is it me, or are these mets hyping this Niño acting like they've never seen one before? I mean, there's going to be a mod or strong Niño. So what...we just had one a few years ago and a 3rd one in 10 years. You'd think it was another Pinatubo event by their tone. 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Is it me, or are these mets hyping this Niño acting like they've never seen one before? I mean, there's going to be a mod or strong Niño. So what...we just had one a few years ago and a 3rd one in 10 years. You'd think it was another Pinatubo event by their tone. 

Hey Mitch, It’s probably to get extra clicks and likes. And then some are typically a bit over the top normally.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Is it me, or are these mets hyping this Niño acting like they've never seen one before? I mean, there's going to be a mod or strong Niño. So what...we just had one a few years ago and a 3rd one in 10 years. You'd think it was another Pinatubo event by their tone. 

Yeah, that's the feeling I'm getting. Models I think are crazy too because they are so used to cold ENSO. Nothing terribly impressive at this time, imo. re: the pattern, SOI and all. Subsurface is warm, but that may take a while to surface. 

[roardog]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Is it me, or are these mets hyping this Niño acting like they've never seen one before? I mean, there's going to be a mod or strong Niño. So what...we just had one a few years ago and a 3rd one in 10 years. You'd think it was another Pinatubo event by their tone. 

I think it’s because the models are showing ridiculous high outcomes. It might end up being a super, who knows but it’s most likely not going to end up as strong as some of the ridiculous output of some of these models. I’m not saying this is the case with any of the twitter mets that snowman is posting but a lot of them don’t follow this stuff/care as much as we do and just check the models every so often without actually diving into it like many posters here do. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The March '26 record +NAO, plus our tendency to go more -PDO relative to everything, and the Winter El Nino/+QBO combo, and NAO decadal + phase, where 20/20 months since 2011 with DJFM monthly NAO >1.11 being all positive! makes me currently lean warm as well. 

Really curious to see if we get a monster N. Pacific low this Winter though. If we don't get it, it means we have shifted into a different pattern vs 1980-2016, and the -PDO cycle may still be young. 

I'll be shocked if we get through the early 2030's without a flip.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Yeah. I fully believe mostly warm temps and strong or super. I see the difference between basin wide vs EP as “do we get a couple of more cold intrusions on the back side of winter to try to get something to phase with that supercharged southern stream, or is it extremely limited like 97-98?” It’s really not a question that can answered by even the most skilled mets this early on IMO.

Even 1997-1998 had a great event just before XMAS up here...only one that had literally nothing was 1972...you could say 2015, but that season had the January blizzard, it just skirted south of me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, that's the feeling I'm getting. Models I think are crazy too because they are so used to cold ENSO. Nothing terribly impressive at this time, imo. re: the pattern, SOI and all. Subsurface is warm, but that may take a while to surface. 

Yea, the El Niño hype is unreal...and it has nothing to do with me having an aversion to a warm winter because I think that's likely, anyway.

[bluewave]

FWIW, the April dynamical mean came in at 2.06 for the ONI. This is significantly ahead of 2023 and 2015 at the same point. 2023 was at 1.54 and 2.10 verified. April 2015 was at 1.30 and 2.80 verified. So for the two most recent El Niños reaching an ONI of 2.0 or greater, the spring predictability barrier resulted in too weak a forecast. 
 

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

April 2026

Average, Dynamical models	0.764	1.120	1.438	1.709	1.763	1.951	2.060	1.856	1.810

 

April 2023

Average, Dynamical models	0.460	0.785	1.098	1.328	1.406	1.481	1.547	1.473	1.386

April 2015

Average, dynamical models	0.8	1	1.2	1.3	1.4	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.1

 

[LakePaste25]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even 1997-1998 had a great event just before XMAS up here...only one that had literally nothing was 1972...you could say 2015, but that season had the January blizzard, it just skirted south of me.

All super ninos have featured below normal snowfall here - a 15-16 outcome vs 97-98 doesn’t make a difference for me as they both had roughly 60-80” on the season. There will always be brief cold shots on the backside of winter and sometimes even very short ones in december if we’re lucky, although december is typically the most hostile. 

[snowman19]

23 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

All super ninos have featured below normal snowfall here - a 15-16 outcome vs 97-98 doesn’t make a difference for me as they both had roughly 60-80” on the season. There will always be brief cold shots on the backside of winter and sometimes even very short ones in december if we’re lucky, although december is typically the most hostile. 

In particular, +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers are a torch in the east. It’s an extremely strong signal over the last 46 years in fact….every single one of them since 1980 were torches without any exceptions. @Stormchaserchuck1 pointed that out a month ago and DT also did a write up on it several years back

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

In particular, +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers are a torch in the east. It’s an extremely strong signal over the last 46 years in fact….every single one of them since 1980 were torches without any exceptions. @Stormchaserchuck1 pointed that out a month ago and DT also did a write up on it several years back

If it is not going to snow in December then I hope we get a December 2015 type outcome so I can enjoy the nice weather outdoors. December 2023 was not ideal, because it was still hostile for snow but it was in the 30s most days. 

[mitchnick]

13 hours ago, roardog said:

I think it’s because the models are showing ridiculous high outcomes. It might end up being a super, who knows but it’s most likely not going to end up as strong as some of the ridiculous output of some of these models. I’m not saying this is the case with any of the twitter mets that snowman is posting but a lot of them don’t follow this stuff/care as much as we do and just check the models every so often without actually diving into it like many posters here do. 

I recall Snowman posting the BOMM at +3-3.25C in 2023 and only broke +2C for 1 trimonthly. Location of the best forcing will be what makes or breaks winter in the east this year.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

All super ninos have featured below normal snowfall here - a 15-16 outcome vs 97-98 doesn’t make a difference for me as they both had roughly 60-80” on the season. There will always be brief cold shots on the backside of winter and sometimes even very short ones in december if we’re lucky, although december is typically the most hostile. 

Yea, here, as well...except for 1982, which was around normal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I recall Snowman posting the BOMM at +3-3.25C in 2023 and only broke +2C for 1 trimonthly. Location of the best forcing will be what makes or breaks winter in the east this year.

 

Gotta be careful, though....2023 mimicked modoki forcing, but it was because the west Pacific was so warm, so it actually created a MC influence...which was wretched.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

If it is not going to snow in December then I hope we get a December 2015 type outcome so I can enjoy the nice weather outdoors. December 2023 was not ideal, because it was still hostile for snow but it was in the 30s most days. 

December 2023 wasn't in the 30s most days. It rained a lot, but it was a really warm December. It was either the 2nd or 3rd warmest December (along with 2021), both behind 2015.

I think it was December 2022 that was in the 30s most days but hostile for snow, although December 2024 could fit that profile as well.

[mitchnick]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gotta be careful, though....2023 mimicked modoki forcing, but it was because the west Pacific was so warm, so it actually created a MC influence...which was wretched.

But that also had the -PDO from hell (which I think you're referring to) that just killed any chance. It could happen again, but odds don't favor that happening again imho.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gotta be careful, though....2023 mimicked modoki forcing, but it was because the west Pacific was so warm, so it actually created a MC influence...which was wretched.

 Related to what you’re saying:

 As JB has emphasized, the models in 2023 that had the beautiful E US trough/Aleutian low that some of us here were repeatedly posting and very excited about were also forecasting the typical BN SSTs around Australia. Had it actually been relatively cold around Australia, JB believes that the E US would have had a cold winter. But alas, it turned out warm around Australia, atypical of El Niño. 
 

 Is 2026 going to end up colder around Australia like JB expects?

[A-L-E-K]

lots of denial itt