2026-2027 El Nino

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The difference between 2015-2016  and 2023-2024 was that we got a great blocking pattern one winter and not so great the other winter. Even 2023-2024 had a good one week period in February with 2 events. But they were narrowly focused into portions of NJ and SNE really couldn’t cash in as much. We did get that record STJ in February associated with the larger event.

Meh, the blocking patterns weren't great in either 2015-16 or 2023-24. That's why temperatures, outside for maybe a few week window, torched during those winters.

2009-10 was the strong el nino winter this century with the great blocking pattern (of course, until late February).

[GaWx]

Impressive -NAO on the way:

[snowman19]

[LakePaste25]

Anyone have any summer analogs for this (el nino standing wave competing with e atlantic/african standing wave)? 

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Impressive -NAO on the way:

Finally came a month later

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Finally came a month later

Maybe we can finally get some severe weather and even for that matter,just rain into the Tn Valley finally,its been realitive  dead here since the new year,only 3 confirmed tornadoes in TN

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

I try not to get too far ahead of things and just say at this point the temperatures next winter will probably be warmer than last winter was in the Northeast. Just hoping we can keep some semblance of a benchmark track going especially as we approach late January and February. I wouldn’t mind a mild winter at all if we could get a least one nice backloaded style event. 

The difference between 2015-2016  and 2023-2024 was that we got a great blocking pattern one winter and not so great the other winter. Even 2023-2024 had a good one week period in February with 2 events. But they were narrowly focused into portions of NJ and SNE really couldn’t cash in as much. We did get that record STJ in February associated with the larger event.

Obviously, we would want to avoid a 97-98 outcome where we really didn’t get much snow at all. Unfortunately, we just don’t have the technology to forecast snowfall and blocking so many months in advance.

Climate Reanalyzer has the 500mb reanalysis maps. But they are delayed a bit to around the 8th of the following month. 
 

https://climatereanalyzer.org

 

Thank you.

January 7th, 2024 was an incredible event for me.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 4/14/2026 at 10:48 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Classic Chuck...  Love you, mean it...your work is great...but your default go-to when the data doesn't illustrate what you theorize that it should is "give it another few centuries, and it will work". Well, perhaps my great, great, great, great, great, great, great grandchildren can dig you up and capitulate, but for now, there is in fact a correlation there. It makes sense because the mechanisms that drive ENSO are self-destructive, which is what perpetuates the cycle. 

I wrote about almost a decade ago.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2016/08/delayed-oscillation-and-newtons-third.html

It's easy to accept a theory without data. I did say that in the last 100 years something is reversing it. I'm just saying that's probably not a super long term thing, when talking hundreds of years. 

1) I don't think we will have a Super El Nino this year (RONI). Does Strong reverse? It could be a high end Moderate to Strong peak, imo. 

If it was a Super El Nino, I agree, something is decadally is reversing it, but I think that's more of a pattern in the 1900s and 2000s and may not always be the case. 

2) I do think we have +ENSO tendency for the next 3 years. That may cushion the reverse next year, and be more likely to go Neutral or Weak Nina. 

I don't think it will be a Moderate to Strong La Nina in 27-28. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 4/16/2026 at 6:39 PM, michsnowfreak said:

How can NG "predict" weather trends months in advance?

It's just a middle ground of probability.. where the money is flowing regarding pattern. There is nothing meteorological about it, but some traders may use meteorology to buy/sell the market. I know this board is about discussing scientific theory, etc, but 90% of people really only care about what the Winter will bring so I reference the current trading trend and price, as it is the best guide. If you think it's not good, take up the challenge and trade it! The cold last Winter did more than double the NG price at one point, so accuracy would have been very beneficial to people personally! The cold last winter in the NE was somewhat predictable. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Maybe we can finally get some severe weather and even for that matter,just rain into the Tn Valley finally,its been realitive  dead here since the new year,only 3 confirmed tornadoes in TN

SW, US ridge will do that. Best pattern for a tornadoes is a SW, US trough, slight SE ridge, and another trough in the Northeast to near New Foundland. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Maybe we'll pop +6c tomorrow or the next day? Very impressive subsurface warmth on the thermocline

[PhiEaglesfan712]

29 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's easy to accept a theory without data. I did say that in the last 100 years something is reversing it. I'm just saying that's probably not a super long term thing, when talking hundreds of years. 

1) I don't think we will have a Super El Nino this year (RONI). Does Strong reverse? It could be a high end Moderate to Strong peak, imo. 

If it was a Super El Nino, I agree, something is decadally is reversing it, but I think that's more of a pattern in the 1900s and 2000s and may not always be the case. 

2) I do think we have +ENSO tendency for the next 3 years. That may cushion the reverse next year, and be more likely to go Neutral or Weak Nina. 

I don't think it will be a Moderate to Strong La Nina in 27-28. 

Or could an 86-89 scenario be in the cards? Like a double-year strong el nino in 26-28, possibly peaking off-season (summer of 27), then a flip to a strong la nina in 28-29.

[dmillz25]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Meh, the blocking patterns weren't great in either 2015-16 or 2023-24. That's why temperatures, outside for maybe a few week window, torched during those winters.

2009-10 was the strong el nino winter this century with the great blocking pattern (of course, until late February).

Late February was snowicane

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Or could an 86-89 scenario be in the cards? Like a double-year strong el nino in 26-28, possibly peaking off-season (summer of 27), then a flip to a strong la nina in 28-29.

Maybe but 88-89 was a really Strong Nina. I don't think we will have Moderate-Strong for the next 3 years. 

[michsnowfreak]

44 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's just a middle ground of probability.. where the money is flowing regarding pattern. There is nothing meteorological about it, but some traders may use meteorology to buy/sell the market. I know this board is about discussing scientific theory, etc, but 90% of people really only care about what the Winter will bring so I reference the current trading trend and price, as it is the best guide. If you think it's not good, take up the challenge and trade it! The cold last Winter did more than double the NG price at one point, so accuracy would have been very beneficial to people personally! The cold last winter in the NE was somewhat predictable. 

Thanks for the explanation! Makes sense.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Maybe we can finally get some severe weather and even for that matter,just rain into the Tn Valley finally,its been realitive  dead here since the new year,only 3 confirmed tornadoes in TN

There have been 13 confirmed tornados in Michigan this year (Mar/Apr), which is wild. There was one 4 miles to my north Apr 15 which is the closest I can ever recall. Pic below is of that tornadic 2am storm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's easy to accept a theory without data. I did say that in the last 100 years something is reversing it. I'm just saying that's probably not a super long term thing, when talking hundreds of years. 

1) I don't think we will have a Super El Nino this year (RONI). Does Strong reverse? It could be a high end Moderate to Strong peak, imo. 

If it was a Super El Nino, I agree, something is decadally is reversing it, but I think that's more of a pattern in the 1900s and 2000s and may not always be the case. 

2) I do think we have +ENSO tendency for the next 3 years. That may cushion the reverse next year, and be more likely to go Neutral or Weak Nina. 

I don't think it will be a Moderate to Strong La Nina in 27-28. 

Okay, yes...fair post. To me, it makes sense that the strongest of ENSO events, which are El Niño,  reverse....but I can't say definitively that that trend will not cease with more data. We will just have to see. I wasn't trying to be dismissive, so sorry if it came across that way.

[snowman19]

“Interestingly, the 28 Degree Isotherm today is close to where it was around the same time in 1997. The maximum temperature in the basin is higher this year. The west Pacific downwelling wave is stronger this year back to the west, in response to the bigger westerly wind event this year next to New Guinea. The 28 degree isotherm is starting to fold down across the east Pacific.”

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^The subsurface orientation this year is further west than most previous Strong Nino's

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

“Interestingly, the 28 Degree Isotherm today is close to where it was around the same time in 1997. The maximum temperature in the basin is higher this year. The west Pacific downwelling wave is stronger this year back to the west, in response to the bigger westerly wind event this year next to New Guinea. The 28 degree isotherm is starting to fold down across the east Pacific.”

 

Thanks, snowman. Keep in mind that Paul is comparing to 1997, when global temps were significantly cooler.

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

There have been 13 confirmed tornados in Michigan this year (Mar/Apr), which is wild. There was one 4 miles to my north Apr 15 which is the closest I can ever recall. Pic below is of that tornadic 2am storm.

You guys have had a good severe season.Last year we was off to a great start until the strong blocking happened into the Aluetians and Bearing Sea,this typically pulls the jet max further north sorta speaking and our severe went dormant which the OV got quite active.Gensini has a good paper written about tropical forcing with Nino compared to NINA,Im starting to think thatall this tropical forcing into the WP earlier mainly from Rossby Waves is playing a part,but this at least seems to changing in which  seemingly a CCKW and a Rossby Wave into the East Pac upcomign for a change

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, snowman. Keep in mind that Oaul is comparing to 1997, when global temps were significantly cooler.

Yep good point we are warmer today. And AGW is increasing the frequency of super El Ninos

 

 

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

You guys have has a good severe season.Last year we was off to a great start until the strong blocking happened into the Aluetians and Bearing Sea,this typically pulls the jet max further north sorta speaking and our severe went dormant which the OV got quite active.Gensini has a good paper written about tropical forcing with Nino compared to NINA,Im starting to think that

all this tropical forcing into the WP earlier mainly from Rossby Waves is playing a part,but this at least seems to changing in which  seemingly a CCKW and a Rossby Wave into the East Pac upcomign for a change

I dont really keep track of severe (other than my own daily weather obs), but what I do know is we've had a lot of pretty dull severe seasons, so we were overdue. 

[snowman19]

Yet another WWB is loading up for early May….

[GaWx]

 It is no surprise to those of us following and posting the dailies that the RONI equivalent for last week rose 0.4 to +0.1, the largest weekly gain since the week centered on 5/31/23, which warmed 0.5. Other regions also warmed with a warming of 0.4 in both Nino 3 and Nino 4 while 1+2 warmed by 0.2:
 

08APR2026         1.0       -0.2       -0.3        0.2
 15APR2026         1.2        0.2        0.1        0.6

 How does the +0.1 compare to 2015, 1997, and 1982 in mid April? 

- 2015: +1.0 but it had a head start

- 1997: +0.3

- 1982: +0.3

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

[PhiEaglesfan712]

How 2026 compares to the strong (but not super) pre-nino composite

1986

 09APR1986        -0.8       -0.2        0.0       -0.4
 16APR1986        -0.8        0.2        0.1       -0.4

1991

 10APR1991        -0.9       -0.3        0.3        0.6
 17APR1991        -0.5        0.3        0.7        0.7

2009

 08APR2009         0.0        0.0       -0.1       -0.2
 15APR2009         0.1        0.1        0.0       -0.3

2023

12APR2023         2.3        0.0       -0.3       -0.3
19APR2023         1.9        0.2       -0.2       -0.3

Matches best with 2023 for Nino 1+2, 1986 for Nino 3, and 1991 for Nino 4.

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Thanks, snowman.
 Here’s the RONI version of the CFSv2, which has a peak of ~+2.25 in OND…that’s near the RONI peak of 1972-3 and 1991-2, only slightly cooler than 1997-8 and 2015-6, and a bit cooler than 1982-3:

 This +2.25 is a significant increase over its +2.0 OND forecast RONI peak in the run from one week ago, which is likely largely tied to its warmer April starting point: