2026-2027 El Nino

[snowman19]

@Stormchaserchuck1 Wow at the current subsurface warmth. This downwelling Kelvin wave is massive. As per Paul Roundy: “The amount of momentum already integrated into this Kelvin wave has exceeded that of the March 1997 event by roughly 50%!”
 

[so_whats_happening]

Unfortunately had a large gap in data for TAO recently but here is the 2N-2S TAO depiction of the subsurface. Reminder that CPC and TAO are different in coverage but overall represent things similarly.

[so_whats_happening]

Here are some depictions for specific years in comparison to this year.

 

[so_whats_happening]

Just now, so_whats_happening said:

Here are some depictions for specific years in comparison to this year.

 

The depiction of the subsurface alone would make me think at this early stage we are further west than two of the  stronger Nino events in the last 30 years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

Latest 10 day CFSv2 ensemble mean forecast of RONI: +2.0 peak OND. Note that unlike the BoM’s nearly impossible +0.6 for April, this has a much more sensible -0.3:

What does it have for the ONI?

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What does it have for the ONI?

Similar to the Euro which is what you would expect if these record WWBs continue past the spring forecast barrier.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Similar to the Euro which is what you would expect if these record WWBs continue past the spring forecast barrier.

 

So 2.0 RONI and 2.5 ONI....not good.

I'll go torch if that remains consistent. I would rather see the RONI higher.

[George001]

On 4/13/2026 at 8:06 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Again, to be clear, im only doubting super at this point. It would be unheard of so close. Definitely a nino is coming.

Super would not be fun, but we always get winter in the great lakes. Thats a great thing about living here. You're rescued in the worst case scenarios. Our climate is less feast/famine. 

One thing that im liking is the persistent of the eastern trough in recent years. 

I do agree that northern areas aren’t necessarily doomed even if the Nino is on the stronger side, especially the great lakes (I know you guys do better in La Nina’s, but I do remember seeing somewhere that a super Nino is less of a death sentence for you guys than my area. I’d still prefer a weak or moderate event, but the early signs are this is developing more like recent strong or super ninos than the weak/moderate bucket. If it does become a super Nino I would go fairly aggressive on the mild and less snow side, but not necessarily if it is strong but not super and the non ENSO indicators look good (like you mentioned this is key, and is why this past winter was such a good one). Even last winter wasn’t an optimal ENSO configuration, and still was the best winter I had since 2014-2015. The east based nina idea like 17-18 and 21-22 didnt pan out, it shifted from more basin wide to a modoki Nina in the second half of winter. I recall looking in late Jan and being surprised at how much the coldest anomalies shifted west. We will see how things play out, id roll the dice with an 09-10 ENSO configuration with less blocking, so hopefully things break right in that regard. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2023 would be my top analog, though probably not quite as warm and snowless given a bit more favorable of a look in the north Pacific.

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Similar to the Euro which is what you would expect if these record WWBs continue past the spring forecast barrier.

 

This is starting to look like a lock for a “high-end” strong El Niño at the very minimum

[40/70 Benchmark]

Important to see how the PDO evolves, too.....I don't think that it will, but if it were to remain negative with the RONI continuing to lag to ONI, then good night nurse.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So 2.0 RONI and 2.5 ONI....not good.

I'll go torch if that remains consistent. I would rather see the RONI higher.

If the models are still showing something similar with the June updates, then our first 2.0°+ ONI El Niño events within 3 years would become more likely. 

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Important to see how the PDO evolves, too.....I don't think that it will, but if it were to remain negative with the RONI continuing to lag to ONI, then good night nurse.

Given the totality of the indicators up to now, I think it goes super. Then the question becomes is it east-based/East Pacific (1997-98, 1982-83) or basin-wide (2015-16)

[snowman19]

“A strong MJO pulse (part of what helped spawn #Sinlaku) is traversing the Pacific and will move towards Central America. As a result, trade winds will slow across the Central and East Pacific in the next two weeks. I expect we will see some fairly rapid warming of ENSO 1+2 and ENSO 3 as a result, with a lot of sub-surface heat lurking from the last downwelling Kelvin Wave. On top of warming already ongoing, the East/Central Pacific may start to look very El-Niño-like shortly.”

[LakePaste25]

Interesting. 1972 was one of the coolest summers on record here.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Given the totality of the indicators up to now, I think it goes super. Then the question becomes is it east-based/East Pacific (1997-98, 1982-83) or basin-wide (2015-16)

I know Chuck disagrees, but I don't think it matters much....it will be very warm. I think keeping it more west-focused, like 2015, just gives a better shot at a big storm and a cold interval or two.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Recall in January 2016 we had the big blizzard in January, and then a record arctic surge around V-Day.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

51 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Interesting. 1972 was one of the coolest summers on record here.

 

In strong el ninos, the summer before it is usually cooler, and the summer after it is usually warmer, in the East. The only time that didn't happen was 91-92, which was affected by a major volcano (Pinatubo). [Interesting to note that besides 1991, the only other pre-nino summer that was warmer than average was 2015. Both 1991 and 2015 were borderline warm neutral/weak el nino events. The summers of 1990 and 2014 were considerably colder than the summers of 1991 and 2015.]

Pre-strong nino/post-strong nino summer average temps (PHL) since 1970

72-73: pre-nino summer 72 (73.9); post-nino summer 73 (77.1)

82-83: pre-nino summer 82 (73.0); post-nino summer 83 (75.7)

86-88: pre-nino summer 86 (75.3); post-nino summer 88 (77.1) [summer 87 during the el nino was 76.5]

91-92: pre-nino summer 91 (77.9); post-nino summer 92 (74.0)

97-98: pre-nino summer 97 (74.2); post-nino summer 98 (75.7)

09-10: pre-nino summer 09 (75.1); post-nino summer 10 (79.6)

15-16: pre-nino summer 15 (77.7); post-nino summer 16 (78.8)

23-24: pre-nino summer 23 (75.8; although JAS was 76.1); post-nino summer 24 (78.5)

[MJO812]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Recall in January 2016 we had the big blizzard in January, and then a record arctic surge around V-Day.

That was basically winter here.

31 inches here with the blizzard

[LakePaste25]

54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Recall in January 2016 we had the big blizzard in January, and then a record arctic surge around V-Day.

Incredible how different the Jan 2016 cold shots were vs. the Jan 2024. Jan 2024 was much more Nina-like, and probably why there wasn’t a big snowstorm in the mid atlantic or NE.

They both had the roaring southern stream like you’d expect for a Nino but mismatched at 500 mb heights. 

 

 

 

[roardog]

I feel like a cool summer and fall would be an indication that this Nino could be more Nino like. A warm summer and or fall to me indicates there’s still some Nina/-PDO influence.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 minutes ago, roardog said:

I feel like a cool summer and fall would be an indication that this Nino could be more Nino like. A warm summer and or fall to me indicates there’s still some Nina/-PDO influence.

I'm not so sure about that. 2015 was a warm summer and especially fall, and there was no nina or -PDO influence. If anything, that was a solid +PDO year.

[snowman19]

One thing is for sure, the STJ is going to be on roids. The PMM has gone severely positive. Combine that with a strong/super El Niño and watch out

[roardog]

34 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm not so sure about that. 2015 was a warm summer and especially fall, and there was no nina or -PDO influence. If anything, that was a solid +PDO year.

There still seemed to be some Nina like influence that year though. December was mild like you would expect in a Nino but it came with Nina like tendencies which made the east very warm that month. 2014 seems like the last Nino that really had the classic summer to winter progression IMO.