2026-2027 El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

Interesting that we have had two consecutive episodes of El Nino that were accompanied by -PDO (2018-2019 and 2023-2024) for the first time since the 1950s (1951-1952 and 1953-1954). The third of warm ENSO of the 1950s was a strong/border line super event. 

Sound familiar?

1957-1958 did not follow that trend.

I can't wait to delve into the stratosphere and solar analogs this summer....this is not the slam-dunk that many are portraying it to be.

[40/70 Benchmark]

We did have two in the 1960s, as well (1965-1966 and 1968-1969) my mistake....but 1968-1969 was weak.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

We had some good discussions on this topic over the years.

My guess is that the 500 mb ridging associated with the ABNA ridge during 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 winters was effectively pulled south due to the record mid-latitude marine heatwaves across the North Pacific.

So a much stronger subtropical ridge influence than 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. This lead to lower heights across the -WPO region in 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 relative to 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.

So this stronger subtropical ridge influence may have also contributed to the weaker TPV in the Great Lakes and Northeast and much warmer winters than we got those years. 

Notice that the warm pool extending from Japan to California didn’t let the PDO index show a strongly +PDO reading even with the record SSTs off the California Coast for this time of year.  This also makes it more difficult to have a one to one comparison with the PDO readings of the past that didn’t have the record mid-latitude warm pool east of Japan and south of the Aleutians. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Something like this is happening ( or may be ) all over the planet.   I'm wondering if/when the 2023 air-sea temperature burst might redux. This probably has to be verified by more than one source ( Climate Reanalyzer ) yet, but according to below it's at historic high relative to date, already. That curve it just crossed is 2024, 2023 just beneath. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Shoot I'd HAPPILY take that one for my sub, lol

It was a great winter here as well. It was like the pre party to a fantastic 2005-2015. It was cold and dry west of the lakes though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks to me like 1957 is a bit better of a QBO analog, and 2002 a better solar analog....neither one are awful polar analogs, though. 2002-2003 flipped to negative QBO at 30mb and 1957-1958 was right at solar max. 2026-2027 will be positive at 30 and 50mb, like 1957-1958, and descending past solar max, like 2002-2003. I see no reason why we should be resigned to an awful winter....locking in an east-based super El Niño is every bit of a wish cast as anything else at this early juncture.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Couldn't 1951-52 and 53-54 be considered part of the same, albeit disjointed, el nino? I find it amazing how the PDO stayed negative during an entire triple-year el nino.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Couldn't 1951-52 and 53-54 be considered part of the same, albeit disjointed, el nino? I find it amazing how the PDO stayed negative during an entire triple-year el nino.

I see what you are saying based off the RONI, but it didn't hit 0.5 again until February 1953....the MEI actually dipped negative briefly in December 1952 and didn't hit 0.5 again until March. Based on this, the answer is "no"....1952-1953 was neutral.

https://www.webberweather.com/multivariate-enso-index.html

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks to me like 1957 is a bit better of a QBO analog, and 2002 a better solar analog....neither one are awful polar analogs, though. 2002-2003 flipped to negative QBO at 30mb and 1957-1958 was right at solar max. 2026-2027 will positive at 30 and 50mb, like 1957-1958, and descending past solar max, like 2002-2003. I see no reason why we should be resigned to an awful winter....locking in an east-based super El Niño is every bit of a wish cast as anything else at this early juncture.

Only a moron would lock anything in, in March. I haven’t seen anyone lock in an east-based super El Niño on here or even on twitter. Is there an increased chance of one? Yes. Especially if those twin TC’s along the record WWB verify. That said, IF, if, if we actually do see an east-based/East Pacific super El Niño, I can say with very good confidence that it will not be an arctic cold winter, regardless of what the QBO and stratosphere/SPV and solar do. Snow is a completely different matter since we’ve seen 2 record breaking KU blizzards during super El Niños, most recent being the 2015-16 super El Niño which saw the January, 2016 blizzard. Even the east-based super El Niño of 1982-83 had the Megalopolis blizzard in February, 1983. 1997-98 was obviously a wall to wall dud for snow until the first day of astronomical spring in March, 1998, when NYC saw 5 inches of snow, which was the only snowstorm of that entire winter for them…..

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It harkens back to what I have always said in response to those who have speculated that this would be the "new normal" as a result of CC driving the western Pac warm pool.

YES....the globe is warming. However, these patterns remain cyclical and mother nature will find a way to achieve balance independent of the mean background warming.....abracadabra-presto!

Notice a difference despite the west warm pool? What I will admit is we likely need to work on that to achieve more MJO phase 8 residence time and amplitude, which is likely still limiting large coastals, aside from the blizzard.

I am willing to bet that the PDO will flip positive by next winter if we do get another strong El Nino, despite the CC signature on the SST pattern.

The new normal has been record marine heatwaves across multiple ocean basins influencing our sensible weather. Oscillations and teleconnections will continue to exist. But the competing nature of the marine heatwaves will allow them to be expressed in new ways.

The next question is what becomes of the record SST warmth east of Japan that we have been experiencing since the late 2010s? I see you are in the same camp with Paul. I haven’t taken a position yet on whether a strong enough El Niño can cause it to shift to another part of the Pacific basin. So right now I am in the open camp since I don’t have enough data to make a call yet. But I agree with you that we would need to significantly weaken it to allow for a very strong +PDO to emerge which we last saw back in 2015. 

The long range climate models maintain the warm pool there into the late fall and perhaps early winter. Beyond that point who really knows. But it will be interesting to see how things play out going forward. Since we have never experienced a warm pool there if this magnitude lasting nearly a decade before. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Only a moron would lock anything in, in March. I haven’t seen anyone lock in an east-based super El Niño on here or even on twitter. Is there an increased chance of one? Yes. Especially if those twin TC’s along the record WWB verify. That said, IF, if, if we actually do see an east-based/East Pacific super El Niño, I can say with very good confidence that it will not be an arctic cold winter, regardless of what the QBO and stratosphere/SPV and solar do. Snow is a completely different matter since we’ve seen 2 record breaking KU blizzards during super El Niños, most recent being the 2015-16 super El Niño which saw the January, 2016 blizzard. Even the east-based super El Niño of 1982-83 had the Megalopolis blizzard in February, 1983. 1997-98 was obviously a wall to wall dud for snow until the first day of astronomical spring in March, 1998, when NYC saw 5 inches of snow, which was the only snowstorm of that entire winter for them…..

I think we could eliminate the possibility of a high-end NE snowfall outcome in that case...mid Atlantic is different since they don't average as much and can exceed their seasonal allotment in one storm given the powerful STJ.

I am with you on the cold...even if we do get a 2002-2003 or 1957-1958 type of El Nino, I don't anticipate it being as consistently cold as last season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The new normal has been record marine heatwaves across multiple ocean basins influencing our sensible weather. Oscillations and teleconnections will continue to exist. But the competing nature of the marine heatwaves will allow them to be expressed in new ways.

The next question is what becomes of the record SST warmth east of Japan that we have been experiencing since the late 2010s? I see you are in the same camp with Paul. I haven’t taken a position yet on whether a strong enough El Niño can cause it to shift to another part of the Pacific basin. So right now I am in the open camp since I don’t have enough data to make a call yet. But I agree with you that we would need to significantly weaken it to allow for a very strong +PDO to emerge which we last saw back in 2015. 

The long range climate models maintain the warm pool there into the late fall and perhaps early winter. Beyond that point who really knows. But it will be interesting to see how things play out going forward. Since we have never experienced a warm pool there if this magnitude lasting nearly a decade before. 
 

IMHO the default position should be that it will relocate given a strong enough El Nino because that is what has always happened...sure, you could argue that the magnitude and residence of this particular warm pool is unprecedented, but I can tell you what else is unprecedented....ANY type of pattern or SST signature becoming a permanent fixture in the hemisphere (general warming notwithstanding), so in that sense we have plenty of evidence. This is akin to me arguing that the warm east/cold west/+WPO pattern wasn't permanent, which we now know for certain.

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

There might be a tendency to exaggerate very favorable conditions, and immediate jump to Super Nino vs something Moderate or even Strong.. like I've previously posted, the March SOI has never been this high in a Moderate+ Nino later in the year. Now there's only 9 examples and I'll have to test it back before 1950, but things are less than ideal right now, although SSTAs are warming pretty fast. Just some random thoughts this morning. 

Nino 4 also has a steady long term uptrend since 1950, more uniform than other regions.. that Nino 4 is already +0.4 and WWBs happening in the west, may propel that to some warmer conditions this year. 

[roardog]

Since I’ve never really paid too much attention to forecasts of WWB and Kelvin waves and that sort of thing, my question is, how accurate are those modeled forecasts going out a week plus normally? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

There might be a tendency to exaggerate very favorable conditions, and immediate jump to Super Nino vs something Moderate or even Strong.. like I've previously posted, the March SOI has never been this high in a Moderate+ Nino later in the year. Now there's only 9 examples and I'll have to test it back before 1950, but things are less than ideal right now, although SSTAs are warming pretty fast. Just some random thoughts this morning. 

Nino 4 also has a steady long term uptrend since 1950, more uniform than other regions.. that Nino 4 is already +0.4 and WWBs happening in the west, may propel that to some warmer conditions this year. 

I don't anticipate a super el nino just based on what has happened in the past and where it looks like we're headed...just doesn't fit. My guess is a decent event that is not prohibitive to a good winter...a la 1957 or 2002. Again, just my hunch....I'm not saying a super event can't happen, but considering we just had a super event in 2015, and a very strong and very warm el nino in 2023 as we now begin to emerge from the ongoing Pacific cold phase, I just don't see it. I like 1957 because it is a good QBO fit and decent solar match (albeit closer to solar max) that followed up two Pacific cold phase El nino events. 2002 is a very good solar match and an okay QBO match that also occurred as we emerged from a persistent -PDO.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't anticipate a super el nino just based on what has happened in the past and where it looks like we're headed...just doesn't fit. My guess is a decent event that is not prohibitive to a good winter...a la 1957 or 2002. Again, just my hunch....I'm not saying a super event can't happen, but considering we just had a super event in 2015, and a very strong and very warm el nino in 2023 as we now begin to emerge from the ongoing Pacific cold phase, I just don't see it.

You've mentioned 02-03 a few times but that was a major west-based Nino. I don't think we're going to have that orientation this year, and the Pacific is still in a -ENSO state, left over from what has been that phase generally since 2016. The Mountain West hitting >+10F anomalies for a 4-5 month period this Winter honestly scares me about cold Winter prospects next year. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You've mentioned 02-03 a few times but that was a major west-based Nino. I don't think we're going to have that orientation this year, and the Pacific is still in a -ENSO state, left over from what has been that phase generally since 2016. The Mountain West hitting >+10F anomalies for a 4-5 month period this Winter honestly scares me about cold Winter prospects next year. 

It should scare every winter enthusiast...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You've mentioned 02-03 a few times but that was a major west-based Nino. I don't think we're going to have that orientation this year, and the Pacific is still in a -ENSO state, left over from what has been that phase generally since 2016. The Mountain West hitting >+10F anomalies for a 4-5 month period this Winter honestly scares me about cold Winter prospects next year. 

Doesn't have to be west-based necessarily to have that type of outcome.....basin-wide is fair game. That year was also emerging from a persistent -PDO. I've already said I don't expect next winter to be that cold, regardless, but my point is that I don't think a +5F season is a foregone conclusion.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

It should scare every winter enthusiast...

I don't see what it matters if the mean pattern favors a west coast ridge and an east coast trough....that said, it doesn't need to be very cold to salvage a decent snowfall season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Every other year is the warmest winter on record nationally...I don't see this is a novel concept.

[MJO812]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see what it matters if the mean pattern favors a west coast ridge and an east coast trough....that said, it doesn't need to be very cold to salvage a decent snowfall season.

EL Nino plus blocking would be ideal for the east. We just had a second favorable winter in a row in many locations in the east. Maybe the tide is turning .  We did get lucky last winter with the negative NAO and the cooperate pacific.

I want to see the pacific continue to improve. We need a PDO flush.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doesn't have to be west-based necessarily to have that type of outcome.....basin-wide is fair game. That year was also emerging from a persistent -PDO. I've already said I don't expect next winter to be that cold, regardless, but my point is that I don't think a +5F season is a foregone conclusion.

02-03 had more -EPO and -WPO. You pointed out yesterday positive phases of these indexes has gone with basin-wide El Nino's, and especially east-based. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Every other year is the warmest winter on record nationally...I don't see this is a novel concept.

23-24 was the only one since 2005? (I don't know, but I don't think any Winter since then beat 97-98 or 01-02). 

If I get a big ++NAO signal from N. Atlantic Summer SSTA's, I think warmest Winter on record could be in the cards. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

March 2026 might be the most +NAO March on record since 1950. Look at how that goes with El Nino later in the year..

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

02-03 had more -EPO and -WPO. You pointed out yesterday positive phases of these indexes has gone with basin-wide El Nino's, and especially east-based. 

I did?

Anyway, I'm not willing to delve in any further at this point.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm not arguing for a big winter next year...all I am trying to say is that nothing is set in stone yet. This is why I usually don't get into it this early. You end up defending a hypothetical position that you haven't even taken yet.

[michsnowfreak]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You've mentioned 02-03 a few times but that was a major west-based Nino. I don't think we're going to have that orientation this year, and the Pacific is still in a -ENSO state, left over from what has been that phase generally since 2016. The Mountain West hitting >+10F anomalies for a 4-5 month period this Winter honestly scares me about cold Winter prospects next year. 

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see what it matters if the mean pattern favors a west coast ridge and an east coast trough....that said, it doesn't need to be very cold to salvage a decent snowfall season.

The ridge west, trough east alignment seems to be almost stuck. Not literally, of course it moves, but it has been dominant lately so no need to think it cant continue next winter. It was dominant for almost a decade it seemed if we look back just 11-12 years or so. And of course it goes without saying that the blazing SW is doing the heavy lifting for ranking conus winter warmth.

Chuck and I have discussed, I personally dont worry about "cold" when it comes to snow. Its more about storm tracks. You can absolutely apply that to the Great Lakes and New England. Further south, of course its different.

We have now had 2 cold winters in a row. With an El Nino coming Id be very surprised to see a 3rd cold winter in a row locally. The last 2 winters here have been cold and snowcovered with powder which is my favorite, but not gonna lie, with the biggest storm this winter 6.2" and biggest last winter 4.6", a milder winter would likely send more dynamic winter storms into this area. Historically its a mix, but for the last 3 decades, milder winters have produced some real dynamic snowstorms.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

If we can get the western regions to amp up, these are our most western weighted strong +ENSO events since 2000.. this pattern is phasing out over the course of the last few decades though.