2026-2027 El Nino

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I can see why the models are going so strong with the El Niño next winter.

The last two winters followed the North Pacific strong El Niño precursor pattern. This two winter regime featured a strong -WPO in the Bering Sea and a ridge over the Western North America.

But we will need to watch the El Niño development going forward to see if the El Niño is as robust as 2015-2016, 1997-1998, and 1982-1983. Probably need to get through the spring forecast barrier period before we have an idea about next winter.

If the previous multiyear composite works out, then the ridge next winter will be centered just north of the Great Lakes into the Northeast.

This progression below isn’t a forecast yet, but something to watch for if the El Niño becomes as strong as model forecasts. Plus the sample size only consists 3 multiyear periods since 1981.
 

2024-2025 and 2025-2026 winter 500 mb composite 

2014-2015, 2013-2014, 1996-1997, 1995-1996, 1981-1982, and 1980-1981 composites 

 

 

Roll forward to the 2015-2016, 1997-1998, and 1982-1983 winters 

 

 

 

Eric Webb touched on this back in November. He said we were exactly following the previous winter precursor patterns that culminated in the super El Niño’s of 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Eric Webb touched on this back in November. He said we were exactly following the previous winter precursor patterns that culminated in the super El Niño’s of 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 

It’s interesting how we got a much warmer and less snowy version of 2013-2014 and the 2014-2015 the last two winters.

This is what I was getting at in my discussions over the last few years. The cold pool and polar vortex over North America was much smaller during the last few winters with a more expansive and stronger 500 mb ridge.

So Boston couldn’t challenge their snowiest winter in 2014-2015 with the February 2015 cold and the Great Lakes couldn’t approach 2013-2014 record snow and cold.

The last few winters were a warmer and less snowy reflection due to the big global temperature jump which occurred with the 2015-2016 super El Niño. 

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Eric Webb touched on this back in November. He said we were exactly following the previous winter precursor patterns that culminated in the super El Niño’s of 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 

 It may end up super-strong. But Eric likes to make bold calls and thus has had his share of bad busts before. So, we’ll see. Keep in mind the Euro’s warm bias in predicting ENSO as well as the fact that RONI is currently 0.5C cooler than ONI, which is what most of the model charts are showing.

[snowman19]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 It may end up super-strong. But Eric likes to make bold calls and thus has had his share of bad busts before. So, we’ll see. Keep in mind the Euro’s warm bias in predicting ENSO as well as the fact that RONI is currently 0.5C cooler than ONI, which is what most of the model charts are showing.

It’s all hypothetical speculation at this point. Long, long way to go before we can say with any confidence if this is going to be a super El Niño event or not. Then, if (IF) it does in fact become a super event….is it east-based (82-83, 97-98)? Or basin-wide (15-16)? Paul Roundy is extremely confident that this El Niño at least STARTS as an east-based event regardless of strength, where it goes from there is anyone’s guess right now…..

[Wannabehippie]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s all hypothetical speculation at this point. Long, long way to go before we can say with any confidence if this is going to be a super El Niño event or not. Then, if (IF) it does in fact become a super event….is it east-based (82-83, 97-98)? Or basin-wide (15-16)? Paul Roundy is extremely confident that this El Niño at least STARTS as an east-based event regardless of strength, where it goes from there is anyone’s guess right now…..

If it is a super El Nino, could it just be a basin wide event? What does history show us with super El Ninos?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

If it is a super El Nino, could it just be a basin wide event? What does history show us with super El Ninos?

They usually develop further east in Nino 3 and Nino 1+2, because on average there is cooler water there. If the whole area is neutralizing (average state is trade winds and colder SSTs along the equator), then the biggest difference is further east. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

SOI remains very positive for a developing Stronger El Nino

13 Mar 2026	1013.78	1004.20	26.18	15.03	10.39
12 Mar 2026	1012.94	1003.80	24.08	14.12	10.15
11 Mar 2026	1012.23	1003.95	19.96	13.50	9.83
10 Mar 2026	1012.41	1004.15	19.86	12.99	9.54
9 Mar 2026	1013.31	1004.00	24.89	12.33	9.38
8 Mar 2026	1013.00	1003.05	27.95	11.43	9.31
7 Mar 2026	1012.90	1002.50	30.11	10.84	9.13
6 Mar 2026	1012.74	1003.30	25.51	10.77	8.71
5 Mar 2026	1010.85	1003.90	13.59	10.96	8.17
4 Mar 2026	1011.34	1003.15	19.53	11.31	7.65
3 Mar 2026	1010.85	1002.70	19.34	11.46	6.95
2 Mar 2026	1010.44	1002.95	16.18	11.70	6.42
1 Mar 2026	1011.79	1003.40	20.49	11.80	6.11
28 Feb 2026	1011.80	1003.50	17.10	11.49	5.74

 

Lots of month to go, but March is currently on pace to be the Most +SOI month since before the 23-24 Strong Nino. 

Later-in-the-year Strong Nino March's:

2023: -1.78

2015: -10.7

1997: -7

1991: -10.1

1982: +0.7

1972: +1.2

1965: +2.1

^since 1950

[Stormchaserchuck1]

CPC increased El Nino chances by 15%

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

[Wannabehippie]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

They usually develop further east in Nino 3 and Nino 1+2, because on average there is cooler water there. If the whole area is neutralizing (average state is trade winds and colder SSTs along the equator), then the biggest difference is further east. 

Thank you for that information.

[bncho]

@Stormchaserchuck1 do El Nino's normally form east-based and propogate west? Or this is just me on weenie hopium?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, bncho said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 do El Nino's normally form east-based and propogate west? Or this is just me on weenie hopium?

Sometimes. Here is how a Nino 3.4 El Nino usually develops.. first over the dateline:

Sometimes Stronger El Nino's will develop in the far east and spread west to Nino 3, but they typically don't jump to where the western ENSO regions have the same +std as the east. 

[so_whats_happening]

If this were to actually hold we would see quite the KW form and would significantly raise the chances of at least a moderate to strong Nino.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

On 3/14/2026 at 12:20 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

SOI remains very positive for a developing Stronger El Nino

13 Mar 2026	1013.78	1004.20	26.18	15.03	10.39
12 Mar 2026	1012.94	1003.80	24.08	14.12	10.15
11 Mar 2026	1012.23	1003.95	19.96	13.50	9.83
10 Mar 2026	1012.41	1004.15	19.86	12.99	9.54
9 Mar 2026	1013.31	1004.00	24.89	12.33	9.38
8 Mar 2026	1013.00	1003.05	27.95	11.43	9.31
7 Mar 2026	1012.90	1002.50	30.11	10.84	9.13
6 Mar 2026	1012.74	1003.30	25.51	10.77	8.71
5 Mar 2026	1010.85	1003.90	13.59	10.96	8.17
4 Mar 2026	1011.34	1003.15	19.53	11.31	7.65
3 Mar 2026	1010.85	1002.70	19.34	11.46	6.95
2 Mar 2026	1010.44	1002.95	16.18	11.70	6.42
1 Mar 2026	1011.79	1003.40	20.49	11.80	6.11
28 Feb 2026	1011.80	1003.50	17.10	11.49	5.74

 

Lots of month to go, but March is currently on pace to be the Most +SOI month since before the 23-24 Strong Nino. 

Later-in-the-year Strong Nino March's:

2023: -1.78

2015: -10.7

1997: -7

1991: -10.1

1982: +0.7

1972: +1.2

1965: +2.1

^since 1950

What about 1986 and 2009?

(I'm not including 1987, because that el nino was already in progress, and it had dissipated already by the end of winter 1988... giving a jump start on the very strong 1988-89 la nina).

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

What about 1986 and 2009?

(I'm not including 1987, because that el nino was already in progress, and it had dissipated already by the end of winter 1988... giving a jump start on the very strong 1988-89 la nina).

2009 -1.3

1986 -0.3

If you're going to include those, you should include 1957: -2.7

So we've never in developing Moderate+ El Nino's since 1950 had a March SOI over +2.1

Now it has recently reversed on the daily from positive, to negative (-9) on March 15th. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Another thing to watch out for is that we have not had a strong la nina since 2010-11. This is our longest stretch without one since 1955-56 and 1973-74.

We are probably due for a strong la nina soon. (If we don't get one by 2028-29, then it will be the longest stretch without one since 1916-17 and 1955-56.) Keep in mind, many of our strongest el ninos have been immediately followed by a strong la nina:

1957-58 (strong) - No

1965-66 (strong) - No

1972-73 (super) - Yes (1973-74)

1982-83 (super) - No

1986-88 (strong) - Yes (1988-89)

1991-92 (strong) - No

1997-98 (super) - Yes (1998-99 and 1999-2000)

2009-10 (strong) - Yes (2010-11)

2015-16 (super) - No

2023-24 (strong) - No

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Well we've had 5/6 recent years La Nina (RONI), and 7/10 recent years La Nina. In 20-21 we were -0.1c away from Strong Nina, so I don't think we are "due". Actually history shows that 4/6+ ENSO-state occurrence flips in the following 3-5 years 2:1

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Since the pre-El Nino composite has worked out 4 months in a row, here is April's preceding El Nino's that develop later in the year.. let's see if we can make it 5 matching months in a row

[TriPol]

If NYC can catch the beginning of a transition from ENSO neutral to a developing Super El Nino when it's cold... boy that winter would rock and roll for us. Constant threats of KU storms. It would be a winter Weenie's dream come true. 

[snowman19]

On 3/15/2026 at 10:47 AM, so_whats_happening said:

If this were to actually hold we would see quite the KW form and would significantly raise the chances of at least a moderate to strong Nino.

Eric Webb is gung ho on a super El Niño. All in. Even Paul Roundy is getting bullish on one. This should be an interesting one to see develop. One thing is for sure, regardless of strength, this one is at least going to develop as a very east-based/East Pacific event. The question then becomes does it stay east-based or go basin-wide? 

[roardog]

17 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Eric Webb is gung ho on a super El Niño. All in. Even Paul Roundy is getting bullish on one. This should be an interesting one to see develop. One thing is for sure, regardless of strength, this one is at least going to develop as a very east-based/East Pacific event. The question then becomes does it stay east-based or go basin-wide? 

There’s a lot of things that make a very strong Nino look likely but I can’t shake the fact that it’s only been 3 years since we’ve had one and the PDO is still negative. March isn’t over yet but right now the 30 day SOI is still extremely positive. As Chuck has shown, the very strong Ninos never have an extremely positive March SOI. I guess we’ll see. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

There’s a lot of things that make a very strong Nino look likely but I can’t shake the fact that it’s only been 3 years since we’ve had one and the PDO is still negative. March isn’t over yet but right now the 30 day SOI is still extremely positive. As Chuck showed, the very strong Ninos never have an extremely positive March SOI. I guess we’ll see. 

And the Euro, one of the warmest currently, does have a warm bias plus RONI is ~0.5 lower right now. In addition, Eric’s bold calls shouldn’t be mistaken for him necessarily being likely to be right as he’s had his share of busts.

[so_whats_happening]

19 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Eric Webb is gung ho on a super El Niño. All in. Even Paul Roundy is getting bullish on one. This should be an interesting one to see develop. One thing is for sure, regardless of strength, this one is at least going to develop as a very east-based/East Pacific event. The question then becomes does it stay east-based or go basin-wide? 

I see the potential but I just can't shake that this doesn't quite get to those levels. Now that things are starting to shine some light on the potential of at least an El Nino im happy to take my weak stance to a moderate level coming up here for the summer and fall with a chance to strong. Super is a stretch for now but also have to see how things progress past the spring barrier. I know I have shared this countless times in comparison and of course not all Nino's will form the same way but I can't help but notice that this setup is different in approach than the 23-24 season with westerly anomalies not as strong in the eastern Pac. I think this has role in maybe limiting the potential of how strong it can get and potentially placement as well but again plenty of time to watch things unfold. I only have what I have saved so forgive me when they dont show a similar time period. Also notice the lack of a full rotation like we saw in the 2023 example (upper image), maybe this is still to come?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here is what a typical El Nino Summer looks like in the 1948-2020 dataset

[roardog]

March 2023 had a very strong MJO is phases 7 and 8. This year it's also in phases 7 and 8, just much weaker. I wonder if that means anything. 

[cmillzz]

4 hours ago, roardog said:

March 2023 had a very strong MJO is phases 7 and 8. This year it's also in phases 7 and 8, just much weaker. I wonder if that means anything. 

March 2023 was very cold in the west though, so completely different patterns.

[roardog]

1 minute ago, cmillzz said:

March 2023 was very cold in the west though, so completely different patterns.

I probably should have been more clear in my post. I was referencing the MJO impacting the developing Nino. The strong phase 7 and 8 in 2023 was looked at as an indication that the Nino could get very strong. This year it's in 7 and 8 again but weaker. I just thought it was interesting.

[PhiEaglesfan712]