Friday February 6 FROPA / WINDEX small event

[Kitz Craver]

Nam and 3k Nam still look pretty nice

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Might be two features. One south of LI poking into SE CT and another off the MA coast. But models continue to differ how these are handled. I’m not surprised considering the setup. It’s honestly probably a nowcast. But overall  general C-2” outside of any narrow trough bands. 

Definitely interesting up around BOS on the NAM. 

Agreed...I'm thinking most should see 1-2" but where you get those localized bands I could legit see some spots picking up 3-5". 

[ineedsnow]

NAM is a very nice refresher here.  We take! 

[ineedsnow]

[weatherwiz]

That's some really good convergence which develops through the day across eastern Mass. I'm curious to see what the HREF has for precip...I would not be shocked if QPF is going to be understated where synoptically it looks best for prolonged and heavier snows. 

[ORH_wxman]

Lol, you're gonna stack it fast if you get this sounding

[Kitz Craver]

What’s the timing for first flakes?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol, you're gonna stack it fast if you get this sounding

where did you find that? I was looking through trying to find some soundings like that. That is pretty damn unstable too 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

where did you find that? I was looking through trying to find some soundings like that. That is pretty damn unstable too 

Pivotal has NAM soundings...just click on the map. 

 

Yeah its very unstable in the lower levels. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pivotal has NAM soundings...just click on the map. 

 

Yeah its very unstable in the lower levels. 

oh no...I meant location  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Definitely interesting up around BOS on the NAM. 

Agreed...I'm thinking most should see 1-2" but where you get those localized bands I could legit see some spots picking up 3-5". 

I feel like this is going to be incredibly underwhelming outside of a few lucky bands. Has that look.

[ORH_wxman]

Some of the soundings have sfc CAPE between 50-100 joules

[SouthCoastMA]

Lynn, Reveeah, Mahblehead jack?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

oh no...I meant location  

Oh that was right near BOS at 57 hours

[CoastalWx]

Yeah we hope for that. 

[CoastalWx]

Might be a coating to an inch tomorrow too along north and south shores.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Lynn, Reveeah, Mahblehead jack?

Someone could get a localized warning criteria snowfall out of this up on the north shore or maybe somewhere else that gets under a lucky band for 2-3 hours. Assuming some of these soundings are close to reality anyway....very unstable in the low levels with big omega and a cold sounding for DGZ. I'd think there's a chance for a big surprise somewhere. 

[weatherwiz]

Now I'm seeing some of those soundings. Not sure if this is a COD thing but sometimes the point-and-click soundings don't really match up to what you'd expect to be seeing. You'd have to wonder if some localized warning amounts are possible if this verified 

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Someone could get a localized warning criteria snowfall out of this up on the north shore or maybe somewhere else that gets under a lucky band for 2-3 hours. Assuming some of these soundings are close to reality anyway....very unstable in the low levels with big omega and a cold sounding for DGZ. I'd think there's a chance for a big surprise somewhere. 

I agree. You get models with Near a half inch or more of QPF and that’s a warning for sure. Maybe even only .4” given the soundings.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I feel like this is going to be incredibly underwhelming outside of a few lucky bands. Has that look.

It’s probably 1-2” outside of any localized band. Maybe a 3 spot. 

[dendrite]

Some of the models almost have a little meso high over PWM with enhanced low level convergence in that BOS-LWM-MHT zone with a more easterly component off the GOM. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I agree. You get models with Near a half inch or more of QPF and that’s a warning for sure. Maybe even only .4” given the soundings.

Yeah these soundings would be 20 to 1 easy....you don't want to forecast that unless its within 24h and all guidance agrees....but some alarm bells are going off in my head from some previous inverted trough setups that we had in the late 2000s and early 2010s that gave warning snowfall to localized spots. Anytime you get that very unstable low-level look. North shore right now looks like the best spot (and it might get down into BOS and your area too), but there's a chance of an interior band somewhere too. 

[dendrite]

Just make sure you make your measurements before the arctic front blows through.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dendrite said:

Just make sure you make your measurements before the arctic front blows through.

6" perfectly stacked dendrites on the north shore turning into 2" of compacted dry cement an hour later with 50mph winds. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

6" perfectly stacked dendrites on the north shore turning into 2" of compacted dry cement an hour later with 50mph winds. 

Yeah whatever we get blows into the Atlantic Saturday night lol.

[CoastalWx]

Reggie smashing cape Ann.

[Go Kart Mozart]

26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

where did you find that? I was looking through trying to find some soundings like that. That is pretty damn unstable too 

Is that what you would call a crosshair signature?

[CoastalWx]

Jesus close here. Lets back that up a tad.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

Is that what you would call a crosshair signature?

Absolutely 

[dendrite]

It doesn’t look like much but you can see a little drop in theta-e with height on some of the time-height plots.