Holston_River_Rambler Posted Thursday at 12:40 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:40 PM February is about all there is to talk about in the medium range now. State of the atmosphere at the end of January, 2026: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Thursday at 12:47 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 12:47 PM Stratosphere outlook is active. Even the GEFS is showing a warming and split in the mean. I would show the EPS, but it isn't available on weatherbell. Op Euro: Op GFS: If this plays out, I would expect impacts around the first or second week of March. One thing to consider, is that the last time we had a major SSWE in February (2018 I think), we did not have the base state we have this winter. It was a low - moderate Nina, but we hadn't really had a lot of blocking that winter. I think this one is happening, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out in early March. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Thursday at 04:03 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:03 PM 3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Stratosphere outlook is active. Even the GEFS is showing a warming and split in the mean. I would show the EPS, but it isn't available on weatherbell. Op Euro: Op GFS: If this plays out, I would expect impacts around the first or second week of March. One thing to consider, is that the last time we had a major SSWE in February (2018 I think), we did not have the base state we have this winter. It was a low - moderate Nina, but we hadn't really had a lot of blocking that winter. I think this one is happening, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out in early March. Yeah. Man, if February is realized as Model's show then the split would favor a cold first half of March at the least, an overall long cold period would be the result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Thursday at 05:59 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:59 PM For now it’s not looking like it will be cold enough next week for all snow. Cold rain. Hope you east TN folks get a beautiful snow. I know my son is really excited in Johnson City. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golf757075 Posted Thursday at 10:10 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:10 PM SSW events are hard to predict sometimes. Later in winter we go, more chance to see winter weather is from ULL, at least in west tennessee. Yall in east tennessee have a better chance since you are higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 03:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:53 PM We gonna run this back again next Saturday as well....0z GFS and Euro have a pronounced upslope event advertised??? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 03:57 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:57 PM I wouldn't completely rule out something even Weds or Thurs...one scenario is a slider w/ mostly rain. Another is a similar setup, but it backs the flow as the front passes. Might be room for a slp or weak wave to ride that front. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 04:05 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:05 PM Wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 05:21 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:21 PM The 12z GFS is just one system after another, beginning on Weds. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted yesterday at 05:22 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:22 PM Just now, Carvers Gap said: The 12z GFS is just one system after another, beginning on Weds. Good bye La Nina. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 05:22 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:22 PM Next weekend still looks like a pretty significant upslope event as yet another in a series of strong cold fronts impacts the region. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z GFS is just one system after another, beginning on Weds. Will the temps cooperate. Cold rains yuck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 26 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Will the temps cooperate. Cold rains yuck. At least from the GFS depiction they appear to for the most part . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 0% chance of happening but that 0z GFS full OP run was insane. If cold is in place, looks to be a very active southern jet in place. Pic for insanity purposes lol 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Euro was pretty active as well. at least showing signals for more potential storms on both models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago And this is why we don't cancel winter in early and mid December...or late January. Mother Nature doesn't care if we cancel it. LOL. We had a crippling ice storm last weekend and a decent snowstorm this weekend. Two BIG events which have been accompanied by very cold temps. January will now finish BN for temps for most or right at seasonal. Snowfall and/or ice should finish AN for many. What a month of weather we have had. Started off crazy warm, and ended in the freezer. As for February? I continue to think we have a window right around mid-month if not before. Eventually, we are going to warm-up, and that seems like the second week of March if things don't flip before then...and we do need to keep an eye out for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago Strat warming looks more likely than not now. 40/70 seems to think it might impact high latitude blocking quicker than average since we already have a base state this winter predisposed to that. ensemble mean at day 10: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago Official Strat warming criteria are fairly specific, but insofar as temps are concerned it looks pretty good at the end of the GEFS run Euro has basically the same thing, but a bit slower evolution. I'd show the EPS, but weatherbell only has strat maps for the GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatheriscool Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 46 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: And this is why we don't cancel winter in early and mid December...or late January. Mother Nature doesn't care if we cancel it. LOL. We had a crippling ice storm last weekend and a decent snowstorm this weekend. Two BIG events which have been accompanied by very cold temps. January will now finish BN for temps for most or right at seasonal. Snowfall and/or ice should finish AN for many. What a month of weather we have had. Started off crazy warm, and ended in the freezer. As for February? I continue to think we have a window right around mid-month if not before. Eventually, we are going to warm-up, and that seems like the second week of March if things don't flip before then...and we do need to keep an eye out for that. I think that in the Middle TN area, we see another couple sizeable snowfalls this season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Hopefully we get the temps to be cold enough to be frozen. The weather channel has the mid state in the 40-50s for the next 2 weeks. A day in the 30’s after a frontal passage. Chilly rains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 39 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Hopefully we get the temps to be cold enough to be frozen. The weather channel has the mid state in the 40-50s for the next 2 weeks. A day in the 30’s after a frontal passage. Chilly rains. The first ten days of Feb were supposed to be warm-ish as in back to normal...and IDK if that is actually gonna work out. Take a look at the 12z GFS....one chance after another. I do think mid-month is a good window. But Wednesday has to be watched as does next weekend. Saturday-Monday is a window as well w/ a chance at a strong cold front. I am not even sure we are done w/ below zero stuff after early this week. I will say this...at some point this bitterly cold pattern is gonna break, even if spring forces it. And yes, I do think we have a warm ridge rolling through at some point, but I have to be honest...I am good w/ a few warm days. I need to thaw out. Morning runs w/ wind chills below 5F are not fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Gonna be a Valentines Sweetheart for someone and the Kiss of Death for someone.Hard to figure this one out but its still a couple weeks out.GEFS shows the NAO/PNA possibly crapping out FOR US,but we are talking two weeks away/JMA has the MJO moving through P1-2,thats typically a cold look in J/F/M 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now