February 2026

[Holston_River_Rambler]

February is about all there is to talk about in the medium range now. 

State of the atmosphere at the end of January, 2026:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Stratosphere outlook is active. 

Even the GEFS is showing a warming and split in the mean. I would show the EPS, but it isn't available on weatherbell. 

 

 

Op Euro:

 

Op GFS:

 

If this plays out, I would expect impacts around the first or second week of March. 

One thing to consider, is that the last time we had a major SSWE in February (2018 I think), we did not have the base state we have this winter. It was a low - moderate Nina, but we hadn't really had a lot of blocking that winter. I think this one is happening, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out in early March. 

 

 

 

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Stratosphere outlook is active. 

Even the GEFS is showing a warming and split in the mean. I would show the EPS, but it isn't available on weatherbell. 

 

 

Op Euro:

 

Op GFS:

 

If this plays out, I would expect impacts around the first or second week of March. 

One thing to consider, is that the last time we had a major SSWE in February (2018 I think), we did not have the base state we have this winter. It was a low - moderate Nina, but we hadn't really had a lot of blocking that winter. I think this one is happening, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out in early March. 

 

 

 

Yeah. Man, if February is realized as Model's show then the split would favor a cold first half of March at the least, an overall long cold period would be the result.

[Matthew70]

For now it’s not looking like it will be cold enough next week for all snow. Cold rain.  Hope you east TN folks get a beautiful snow.  I know my son is really excited in Johnson City.

[Golf757075]

SSW events are hard to predict sometimes. Later in winter we go, more chance to see winter weather is from ULL, at least in west tennessee. Yall in east tennessee have a better chance since you are higher elevations. 

[Carvers Gap]

We gonna run this back again next Saturday as well....0z GFS and Euro have a pronounced upslope event advertised???

[Carvers Gap]

I wouldn't completely rule out something even Weds or Thurs...one scenario is a slider w/ mostly rain.  Another is a similar setup, but it backs the flow as the front passes.  Might be room for a slp or weak wave to ride that front.

[John1122]

Wrong thread.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS is just one system after another, beginning on Weds.

[tnweathernut]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GFS is just one system after another, beginning on Weds.

Good bye La Nina.

[Carvers Gap]

Next weekend still looks like a pretty significant upslope event as yet another in a series of strong cold fronts impacts the region.  

[Matthew70]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GFS is just one system after another, beginning on Weds.

Will the temps cooperate.  Cold rains yuck.

[Daniel Boone]

26 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Will the temps cooperate.  Cold rains yuck.

At least from the GFS depiction they appear to for the most part .

[TellicoWx]

0% chance of happening but that 0z GFS full OP run was insane. If cold is in place, looks to be a very active southern jet in place.

 

Pic for insanity purposes lol

[Wurbus]

Euro was pretty active as well. at least showing signals for more potential storms on both models.

[Carvers Gap]

And this is why we don't cancel winter in early and mid December...or late January.  Mother Nature doesn't care if we cancel it.  LOL.  We had a crippling ice storm last weekend and a decent snowstorm this weekend.  Two BIG events which have been accompanied by very cold temps.  January will now finish BN for temps for most or right at seasonal.  Snowfall and/or ice should finish AN for many.  What a month of weather we have had.  Started off crazy warm, and ended in the freezer.  As for February?  I continue to think we have a window right around mid-month if not before.  Eventually, we are going to warm-up, and that seems like the second week of March if things don't flip before then...and we do need to keep an eye out for that.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Strat warming looks more likely than not now. 40/70 seems to think it might impact high latitude blocking quicker than average since we already have a base state this winter predisposed to that. 

ensemble mean at day 10:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Official Strat warming criteria are fairly specific, but insofar as temps are concerned it looks pretty good at the end of the GEFS run 

 

Euro has basically the same thing, but a bit slower evolution. I'd show the EPS, but weatherbell only has strat maps for the GEFS 

[Weatheriscool]

46 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And this is why we don't cancel winter in early and mid December...or late January.  Mother Nature doesn't care if we cancel it.  LOL.  We had a crippling ice storm last weekend and a decent snowstorm this weekend.  Two BIG events which have been accompanied by very cold temps.  January will now finish BN for temps for most or right at seasonal.  Snowfall and/or ice should finish AN for many.  What a month of weather we have had.  Started off crazy warm, and ended in the freezer.  As for February?  I continue to think we have a window right around mid-month if not before.  Eventually, we are going to warm-up, and that seems like the second week of March if things don't flip before then...and we do need to keep an eye out for that.  

I think that in the Middle TN area, we see another couple sizeable snowfalls this season

[Matthew70]

Hopefully we get the temps to be cold enough to be frozen.  The weather channel has the mid state in the 40-50s for the next 2 weeks. A day in the 30’s after a frontal passage.  Chilly rains.