February 2026

[Holston_River_Rambler]

February is about all there is to talk about in the medium range now. 

State of the atmosphere at the end of January, 2026:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Stratosphere outlook is active. 

Even the GEFS is showing a warming and split in the mean. I would show the EPS, but it isn't available on weatherbell. 

 

 

Op Euro:

 

Op GFS:

 

If this plays out, I would expect impacts around the first or second week of March. 

One thing to consider, is that the last time we had a major SSWE in February (2018 I think), we did not have the base state we have this winter. It was a low - moderate Nina, but we hadn't really had a lot of blocking that winter. I think this one is happening, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out in early March. 

 

 

 

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Stratosphere outlook is active. 

Even the GEFS is showing a warming and split in the mean. I would show the EPS, but it isn't available on weatherbell. 

 

 

Op Euro:

 

Op GFS:

 

If this plays out, I would expect impacts around the first or second week of March. 

One thing to consider, is that the last time we had a major SSWE in February (2018 I think), we did not have the base state we have this winter. It was a low - moderate Nina, but we hadn't really had a lot of blocking that winter. I think this one is happening, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out in early March. 

 

 

 

Yeah. Man, if February is realized as Model's show then the split would favor a cold first half of March at the least, an overall long cold period would be the result.

[Matthew70]

For now it’s not looking like it will be cold enough next week for all snow. Cold rain.  Hope you east TN folks get a beautiful snow.  I know my son is really excited in Johnson City.

[Golf757075]

SSW events are hard to predict sometimes. Later in winter we go, more chance to see winter weather is from ULL, at least in west tennessee. Yall in east tennessee have a better chance since you are higher elevations. 

[Carvers Gap]

We gonna run this back again next Saturday as well....0z GFS and Euro have a pronounced upslope event advertised???

[Carvers Gap]

I wouldn't completely rule out something even Weds or Thurs...one scenario is a slider w/ mostly rain.  Another is a similar setup, but it backs the flow as the front passes.  Might be room for a slp or weak wave to ride that front.

[John1122]

Wrong thread.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS is just one system after another, beginning on Weds.

[tnweathernut]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GFS is just one system after another, beginning on Weds.

Good bye La Nina.

[Carvers Gap]

Next weekend still looks like a pretty significant upslope event as yet another in a series of strong cold fronts impacts the region.