February 2026

[Holston_River_Rambler]

February is about all there is to talk about in the medium range now. 

State of the atmosphere at the end of January, 2026:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Stratosphere outlook is active. 

Even the GEFS is showing a warming and split in the mean. I would show the EPS, but it isn't available on weatherbell. 

 

 

Op Euro:

 

Op GFS:

 

If this plays out, I would expect impacts around the first or second week of March. 

One thing to consider, is that the last time we had a major SSWE in February (2018 I think), we did not have the base state we have this winter. It was a low - moderate Nina, but we hadn't really had a lot of blocking that winter. I think this one is happening, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out in early March. 

 

 

 

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Stratosphere outlook is active. 

Even the GEFS is showing a warming and split in the mean. I would show the EPS, but it isn't available on weatherbell. 

 

 

Op Euro:

 

Op GFS:

 

If this plays out, I would expect impacts around the first or second week of March. 

One thing to consider, is that the last time we had a major SSWE in February (2018 I think), we did not have the base state we have this winter. It was a low - moderate Nina, but we hadn't really had a lot of blocking that winter. I think this one is happening, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out in early March. 

 

 

 

Yeah. Man, if February is realized as Model's show then the split would favor a cold first half of March at the least, an overall long cold period would be the result.

[Matthew70]

For now it’s not looking like it will be cold enough next week for all snow. Cold rain.  Hope you east TN folks get a beautiful snow.  I know my son is really excited in Johnson City.