February 2026

[Holston_River_Rambler]

February is about all there is to talk about in the medium range now. 

State of the atmosphere at the end of January, 2026:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Stratosphere outlook is active. 

Even the GEFS is showing a warming and split in the mean. I would show the EPS, but it isn't available on weatherbell. 

 

 

Op Euro:

 

Op GFS:

 

If this plays out, I would expect impacts around the first or second week of March. 

One thing to consider, is that the last time we had a major SSWE in February (2018 I think), we did not have the base state we have this winter. It was a low - moderate Nina, but we hadn't really had a lot of blocking that winter. I think this one is happening, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out in early March.