Is we back? February discussion thread

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I feel like Friday night is about 10% more exciting now, it’s def trending south which should get more qpf albeit meager and more impactful cold . 

Low is almost too far south lol

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

GFS as well. The extended looks primed up. February will be a tracking fun time. 

Yeah, I don’t know, it still looks like we moderate. It’s gonna be kind of a thread the needle I think to get snow events.

[Kitz Craver]

Robots like the 11-12 threat…

[moneypitmike]

55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro AIFS and GFSAI have major winter storm 13-14th. Gaining traction 

I can’t contain my excitement.

[Kitz Craver]

I dunno I see them liking the earlier of the two opportunities, we’ll see

[Snowcrazed71]

55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro AIFS and GFSAI have major winter storm 13-14th. Gaining traction 

I am hoping this happens! If it could be a biggie, I'd be happily for the rest of the winter

[Snowcrazed71]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

GFS as well. The extended looks primed up. February will be a tracking fun time. 

What about this supposed warm-up I'm later next week? Is it going to be like the other two or three that showed up and never came to fruition?

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is what I had for February in my Outlook last fall....I think there is still some colder risk to this forecast, but probably not as much as looked last week. Def. looks like I could be wrong on the +NAO, but I could still see a flip + later this month, despite what guidance does....usually there is a relaxation of the pattern when a PV split actually takes place before any impacts are experiences down the line.

February 2026 Outlook

February Analogs: 2025, 2022, 2018, 2014,2008, 2002, 2001, 1971

 

The Alaskan ridge will rule this month at least to start, along with -PNA and +NAO. Some -NAO blocking could develop late if stratospheric warming gets underway early enough, but it likely holds off.

 

Alaskan Ridge Regime Courtesy Lee et al (2019)

 

 

 

The polar vortex should begin the month fairly strong, but will be weakening rapidly, as a SSW is likely by mid-month.  The January-February 2001 transition from reflection event to SSW may be a reasonable expectation, in terms of progression, as RNA pattern resumes and refocuses the cold west prior to any SSW. 

 

The interior will continue to be favored for snowfall as the storm track remains either inland or  hugs the coast. While not prohibitively warm, this will largely canonical La Niña month with  average to below average snowfall on the coastal plane, and average to above average snowfall across the interior.  Should the SSW develop in the earlier portion of the 1/17 to 2/17 window, the the second half of the month may change that due to the development of high latitude blocking, however, it is more likely not to occur until mid-month, as previously alluded to. The month will finish between +1F and +3F over New England and +2F to +4F over the mid Atlantic. 

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, I don’t know, it still looks like we moderate. It’s gonna be kind of a thread the needle I think to get snow events.

What  i like is the tendency for suppressed tracks. NAO influence is showing near term. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

What about this supposed warm-up I'm later next week? Is it going to be like the other two or three that showed up and never came to fruition?

Warm up is a relaxation of our bitter dry cold. You must smell the taint to get the goods. Play with fire time 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Warm up is a relaxation of our bitter dry cold. You must smell the taint to get the goods. Play with fire time 

I agree for the most part, but I think we will get above average for a stretch centered on the time of the SSW/split....kind of like January with the cold start-moderation-colder finish, but the PNA will be reversed...ie January had the first week RNA carry over from December before PNA took over. Here we have the initial carry over +PNA from January until RNA rules the majority of the month. Feb def. won't be as cold as January relative to climo....the N Pacific will also probably break more hostile for at least an interval mid month, along with NAO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

My guess for that bigger VD event is that you will want to be up and in....probably not too unlike OP GFS, but maybe more aggressive triple point development.

[Kitz Craver]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My guess for that bigger VD event is that you will want to be up and in....probably not too unlike OP GFS, but maybe more aggressive triple point development.

Ewww

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Warm up is a relaxation of our bitter dry cold. You must smell the taint to get the goods. Play with fire time 

It should be AN for awhile. 

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree for the most part, but I think we will get above average for a stretch centered on the time of the SSW/split....kind of like January with the cold start-moderation-colder finish, but the PNA will be reversed...ie January had the first week RNA carry over from December before PNA took over. Here we have the initial carry over +PNA from January until RNA rules the majority of the month. Feb def. won't be as cold as January relative to climo....the N Pacific will also probably break more hostile for at least an interval mid month, along with NAO.

The PV split help to send all the cold into Asia. We may have a -NAO but battle +EPO for awhile. Some signs it may change later in the month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It should be AN for awhile. 

Yea, this weekend into the onset of early next week concludes the utility of the 2015 analog...that is coming to an end.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The PV split help to send all the cold into Asia. We may have a -NAO but battle +EPO for awhile. Some signs it may change later in the month.

Yup.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, this weekend into the onset of early next week concludes the utility of the 2015 analog...that is coming to an end.

Back broken for arctic cold after this weekend. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Ewww

I'm not saying it's a warm-sector with all rain...but it's probably a mess for SNE.

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully one of those deals after this weekend is wintry. We certainly walk the line. 

[CoastalWx]

Here’s the 11-15 day on the EPS. Hopefully we can shoe horn in some snow.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully one of those deals after this weekend is wintry. We certainly walk the line. 

I don't echo Steve's optimism that we are geared up for a conveyor belt of prime threats. I think it's going to be a messy month that will scrap and claw it's way to near climo snowfall in SNE.

[Typhoon Tip]

here's your VD transmission day event in the Canadian ensemble.  

GEFs and EPS have nothing coherent above the background static noise left over after the big bang for their handling between the 14 and 15th.

The numerical indices have no interest, either.   In fact, -d(PNA), +EPO, neutralizing NAO support at minimum alleviation of cold.  I think we're seeing that pretty clearly enough in the general cinemas of the operational models out there toward the middle of the month.    There is/was one operational run, the 06z GFS, as I'm sure this remarkable storm attentive group of people have already exposed.

So, it is what is for the time being.  Not much support from most of what's out there, with a short list of sources doing more. 

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It should be AN for awhile. 

Yea heights around 540 instead of 520 but with SWFE implications. Looking forward to a warm up 

[Lava Rock]

I'm sorta done with the cold, but gladly take some more sn as we head towards the backside of winter

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't echo Steve's optimism that are geared up for a conveyor belt of prime threats. I think it's going to be a messy month that scrap and claw it's way to near cimo snowfall in SNE.

Optimism?  Just my interpretation. The way LR models flip there is zero Optimism. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

I'm sorta done with the cold, but gladly take some more sn as we head towards the backside of winter

You guys are a lock imho

[Damage In Tolland]

If that Fri night low digs that far south.. it’s gonna snow 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

here's your VD transmission day event in the Canadian ensemble.  

GEFs and EPS have nothing coherent above the background static left over after the big bang between the 14 and 15th.

The numerical indices have no interest, either.   In fact, -d(PNA), +EPO, neutralizing NAO support at minimum alleviation of cold.  I think we're seeing that pretty clearly enough in the general cinemas of the operational models out there toward the middle of the month.    The 06z GFS as I'm sure you remarkable storm attentive group of people are... has already been exposed.

So, it is what is for the time being.  Not much support from most of what's out there, with a short least of sources doing more. 

I am somewhat intrigued by the AI more wintry scenarios and the ensembles included. They’ve performed well lately.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

If that Fri night low digs that far south.. it’s gonna snow 

Meh.