1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

[Hurricaneguy]

Just now, tnweathernut said:

I cry every time I see that map lol. We dont need that vibe before this one 

[Reb]

Just now, tnweathernut said:

Yeah I had 2” in Seymour and there was 10” like a few miles from my house. Rough one.

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, tnweathernut said:

You guys going to set off my PTSD with that map lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

You guys going to set off my PTSD with that map lol

Wy does snow hate Morristown and want it to die? 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I guess that's more like Rutledge though

[TellicoWx]

43 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

edited for key:

Usually once you reach 60-70% probs that is what helps determine WWA vs WSW. Almost like WPC and MRX are not on the same page (or MRX is going to give the NAM one more chance to catch on)

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like the SREF .qpf held pretty steady (blue is 15z, red is 9z) EDIT I got it backwards. red is 15z, blue is 9z

[Tucker1027]

For us in and near Chattanooga… seems like Atlanta will either do a WWA or WSW


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

the above is for TYS

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

SREF means .qpf  trends for select locations

Abingdon:

 

TRI:

 

 

[fountainguy97]

18 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Didn’t you get at least 7 in Jan 24’?


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1.5". Downslope and rain. 
 

Only 2 snows above 6" here since 2019. 

7" 2-2-21 prolonged NW flow (was more NNW and I think that helped my local)

6" 1-3-22. Quick hitter cutoff. Fell in 4 hrs

 

Several 3-4" events though. Mostly NW related. It's amazing how much NW flow has padded my stats. I assume that's the case for most of the mountains. I'd guess 70% of my snowfall is NW related. 

 

[John1122]

Weather Next/Google AI at 12z was nearly a carbon copy of 06z.

[tnweathernut]

Just now, John1122 said:

Weather Next/Google AI at 12z was nearly a carbon copy of 06z.

It has been rock steady.  Kind of spooky to see something that consistent.

[TellicoWx]

For the HRRR to be picking anything up at this range makes me think even more that the NAM is off its rocker south of 40

[Math/Met]

7 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

1.5". Downslope and rain. 
 

Only 2 snows above 6" here since 2019. 

7" 2-2-21 prolonged NW flow (was more NNW and I think that helped my local)

6" 1-3-22. Quick hitter cutoff. Fell in 4 hrs

 

Several 3-4" events though. Mostly NW related. It's amazing how much NW flow has padded my stats. I assume that's the case for most of the mountains. I'd guess 70% of my snowfall is NW related. 

 

It has been like that for awhile. We do okay with the 3-6 inch snows, but have somehow missed all of the bigger ones. It's been a LONG time since I've seen a double digit snowfall. The 90s were great for big snows, but this particular area has struggled since then.

[tnweathernut]

13 minutes ago, Math/Met said:

It has been like that for awhile. We do okay with the 3-6 inch snows, but have somehow missed all of the bigger ones. It's been a LONG time since I've seen a double digit snowfall. The 90s were great for big snows, but this particular area has struggled since then.

Considering how snowless (relatively speaking) the 90s were, it makes it even more of a head scratcher, IMO.

[TellicoWx]

About 99% sure the eye of the snowcane over NW tip of SC on the 18z HRRR will somehow wiggle its way to over the top of southern Monroe Co lol

[bearman]

2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

About 99% sure the eye of the snowcane over NW tip of SC on the 18z HRRR will somehow wiggle its way to over the top of southern Monroe Co lol

That sure is a nothingburger for Knoxville as well. I would get less than an inch with that..

[nrgjeff]

Roads will go insta-slick in Chatty. They'll eventually go winter wx advisory. Can't justify a warning with no tree damage, but that awful travel morning in 2014 is on the table. Good thing it's a Saturday!

39 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

For us in and near Chattanooga… seems like Atlanta will either do a WWA or WSW


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[TellicoWx]

2 minutes ago, bearman said:

That sure is a nothingburger for Knoxville as well. I would get less than an inch with that..

Its way outside its range..surprised it showing what it is. It's heavily dependent on current radar data, so outside 6-12hrs it falls off verification wise.

[Scottie16]

Seems like we will have some gusty winds as well. I haven’t saw that discussed much.


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[Scottie16]

RRFSA seems slower through 22. Seems like it has more precipitation to work with as well.


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[Save the itchy algae!]

I've lived here since June 2019. The largest snow I've seen in that time is 7" from an over performing NW event in February of 2022.  I may finally break that 7" record this weekend.

How much did you get Jan ‘24?

[Bigbald]

9 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

RRFSA seems slower through 22. Seems like it has more precipitation to work with as well.


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How did the rrfsa perform last storm? Its truely an outlier on right now on precip amounts.

[Save the itchy algae!]

How much did you get Jan ‘24?

Edit:sorry I didn’t see you had already answered when I asked

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[GBOVolz]

1.5". Downslope and rain. 
 
Only 2 snows above 6" here since 2019. 
7" 2-2-21 prolonged NW flow (was more NNW and I think that helped my local)
6" 1-3-22. Quick hitter cutoff. Fell in 4 hrs
 
Several 3-4" events though. Mostly NW related. It's amazing how much NW flow has padded my stats. I assume that's the case for most of the mountains. I'd guess 70% of my snowfall is NW related. 
 

I completely forgot you are in the foothills


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[Daniel Boone]

27 minutes ago, bearman said:

That sure is a nothingburger for Knoxville as well. I would get less than an inch with that..

Yeah, pretty paltry. Hopefully it's wrong. It hasn't been good at all up here. For one, It tends to overdo downslope and is usually a couple degrees too warm . Is that showing 10:1 Ratio ?

[Scottie16]

How did the rrfsa perform last storm? Its truely an outlier on right now on precip amounts.

Hit and miss iirc. It had a good solution 3 days out and then kinda fell off. I think @carver would have abettter handle on its performance.


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[John1122]

13 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

How did the rrfsa perform last storm? Its truely an outlier on right now on precip amounts.

Really poorly.

[John1122]

The NAM and 3k struggles at times by overemphasizing terrain features. That leads to wild looking precip output maps. They are especially prone to it outside 24 hours.