February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, [email protected] said:

March will not only average at least 5 degrees below normal, the park will not hit 56+ the entire month!

Unless the sun is replaced with something smaller, this isn't going to happen.

January and February were cold, and we avoided averaging 5 degrees below average in either month (we're at -5.1 so far in February, but it looks like the last week will at least be warm enough to avoid). Also, March hasn't average 5 degrees below average since 1960, and there hasn't been a March that failed to reach 56 once since 1906. Yes, not even in the historically cold years of 2014 and 2015.

[[email protected]]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Unless the sun is replaced with something smaller, this isn't going to happen.

January and February were cold, and we avoided averaging 5 degrees below average in either month (we're at -5.1 so far in February, but it looks like the last week will at least be warm enough to avoid). Also, March hasn't average 5 degrees below average since 1960, and there hasn't been a March that failed to reach 56 once since 1906. Yes, not even in the historically cold years of 2014 and 2015.

What do you think will happen in March?

[[email protected]]

Just now, [email protected] said:

What do you think will happen in March?

This winter has been just as severe as 13-14 and 14-15!

[WestBabylonWeather]

Good stuff coming ashore. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

28 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

What do you think will happen in March?

Temperatures will moderate out, and I think it will at least be closer to normal, if not above average. We've strung 3 straight well below average months. I highly doubt we're going to string together a 4th. That hasn't happened in a long time.

31 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

This winter has been just as severe as 13-14 and 14-15!

Even those moderated out. 14-15 even turned in a near record warm May after the cold winter.

[donsutherland1]

A major blizzard is getting underway. A rapidly developing storm will bring heavy snow and high winds to the region into tomorrow afternoon. 

At present, a 16"-22" snowfall appears likely in New York City and its nearby suburbs. Somewhat lesser amounts are likely north and west of New York City. A 18"-24" snowfall is likely across central New Jersey and part of Long Island. Blizzard conditions are likely at the height of the storm late Sunday night into Monday morning across much of the region. Winds will likely gust near 60 mph creating extremely low visibilities and large drifts. 

Final estimates:

Allentown: 8"-12"
Atlantic City: 8"-16"
Baltimore: 4"-8"
Binghamton: 2"-4"
Boston: 18"-24"
Bridgeport: 14"-20"
Harrisburg: 4"-8"
Hartford: 8"-12"
Islip: 18"-24"
New York City: 16"-22"
Newark: 16"-22"
Philadelphia: 12"-18"
Providence: 18"-24"
Scranton: 3"-6"
Washington, DC: 3"-6"
Wilmington: 12"-18"

New York City's 10 Biggest Snowstorms:

1 27.5", January 22-24, 2016
2 26.9", February 11-12, 2006
3 26.4", December 26-27, 1947
4 21.0", March 12-14, 1888
5 20.9", February 25-26, 2010
6 20.2", January 7-8, 1996
7 20.0", December 26-27, 2010
8 19.8", February 16-17, 2003
9 19.0", January 26-27, 2011
10 18.1", January 22-24, 1935 and March 7-8, 1941

As a result, Winter 2025-2026 will become just the 10th winter with two 10" or above snowstorms in New York City. The others are 1895-1996, 1925-1926, 1960-1961, 1977-1978, 1995-1996, 2003-2004, 2009-2010 (3 such storms), 2010-2011, and 2013-2014. Even more impressive, Winter 2025-2026 will be on track to join Winters 1960-1961 and 1977-1978 as the only winters with two or more 10" snowstorms, a seasonal mean temperature of 32° or below and seasonal snowfall of 30.0" or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will develop during the close of winter.

The SOI was +6.48 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.211 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.6° (4.3° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.7° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 32.0°. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

[Fred1970]

My live stream

https://hurricanebystates.com/live-stream/

[MJO812]

[shadowsintherain]

Fun delivering in this! Woot!


.

[EastonSN+]

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

In the words of Tom Petty, they won't back down. Good to see. 

[Fred1970]

Coming down at a good clip now

https://hurricanebystates.com/live-stream/

 

YOUTUBE PAGE

[MJO812]

Next weeks storm keeps trending sourh

This was once a cutter

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Next weeks storm keeps trending sourh

This was once a cutter

Some years it just wants to snow. This is one of those years.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Some years it just wants to snow. This is one of those years.

Negative NAO develops on the euro.

[WeatherGeek2025]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Negative NAO develops on the euro.

how's the euro for thursday?

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

how's the euro for thursday?

 

[MJO812]

Gfs !

[MJO812]

[EastonSN+]

Phase 7 by the 9th. Will be one last cold and potentially snowy period. 

Yes it can easily snow in NYC in mid March and even early April lol. Don't really care about how long it stays on the ground.