donsutherland1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Tomorrow and Sunday will see temperatures reach the upper 30s and lower 40s. A flurry or burst of light snow is possible in some areas tomorrow. A few areas could see a dusting. Some precipitation could arrive on Sunday or Monday. Areas with the highest probability of seeing precipitation will be south of New York City. A minor accumulation of snow is possible. It will likely become even milder with highs in the lower to middle 40s for a time next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +7.93 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.519 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 94% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 @Rjaycan we get the thread back after tonight's 0z runs? Wow great weekend coming nice little coating possible tonight and more Sunday night and I can stay up and track all weekend! Let's go guys 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: can we get the thread back John? Because of one model that’s rarely right? Dude.. come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, TriPol said: Because of one model that’s rarely right? Dude.. come on. What ? Every model is coming north . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The more north this comes the south the boundary gets for the next storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, TriPol said: Because of one model that’s rarely right? Dude.. come on. GFS, Euro AI (best computer model in the world) and Icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: What ? Every model is coming north . What does the NAM show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, TriPol said: What does the NAM show? nam shows nothing because it's a nothing model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: GFS, Euro AI (best computer model in the world) and Icon If the thread is re-opened, and it doesn’t snow an inch or more in NYC Sunday - Monday, you have to leave for a month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: If the thread is re-opened, and it doesn’t snow an inch or more in NYC Sunday - Monday, you have to leave for a month. i'll leave for two weeks edit: if it does snow an inch you have give me a break 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 If the thread is re-opened, and it doesn’t snow an inch or more in NYC Sunday - Monday, you have to leave for a month.Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The Ukie is north of 12z too. Gets precipitation to CNJ and tickles the City. Looks better aloft too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 26 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Pretty big increase on gfs It's amazing what a little bit of phasing can do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: If it's not too late, switch it to Irish Whiskey Excellent choice. Sending the Triple Triple Edit: Although this Red Breast is pretty tasty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 8 minutes ago, mriceyman said: Yes . two weeks but if i'm right you take a week off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 37 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: yeah, but you’re not getting a snowstorm with that air mass. I mean, let’s be real here. Tis the season when it can be 50° or higher and then snowing 6 hours later. From about mid-February on its fairly typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 41 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: yeah, but you’re not getting a snowstorm with that air mass. I mean, let’s be real here. It's plenty cold the night it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Tis the season when it can be 50° or higher and then snowing 6 hours later. From about mid-February on its fairly typical. Still remember the post Superbowl snowstorm when it was like 60+ the day before 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's amazing what a little bit of phasing can do Let’s get a Boxing Day style come back lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Let’s get a Boxing Day style come back lol this is what euro showed while i was out of the loop just a few days ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The GRAF is a pretty big storm, saw it on x Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, nycsnow said: The GRAF is a pretty big storm, saw it on x can you share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 24 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Tis the season when it can be 50° or higher and then snowing 6 hours later. From about mid-February on its fairly typical. believe we had a couple march events back to back in 2019? melted right away, also feb 2018 iirc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Snowy gfs run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, MJO812 said: Snowy gfs run Verbatim one of the best 10-day runs of the season. Several snow threats in there. But there are no slam dunks or easy wins in that run. Could be several hits or several misses. Low margins as usual. Before I get excited about the mid- or long-range I'm pulling for a 2-4" event Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Even the UK is waking up at least a little... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: Verbatim one of the best 10-day runs of the season. Several snow threats in there. But there are no slam dunks or easy wins in that run. Could be several hits or several misses. Low margins as usual. Before I get excited about the mid- or long-range I'm pulling for a 2-4" event Sunday night. The negative PNA should help us out as long as the blocking also helps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The negative PNA should help us out as long as the blocking also helps. you see that arctic blast on the gfs around the 27th? that's some serious cold. GFS doesn't give no warm up besides tomorrow and next week for a couple of days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 15 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: can you share? https://x.com/weatherprof/status/2022438348405481832?s=46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, nycsnow said: https://x.com/weatherprof/status/2022438348405481832?s=46 dude that's a 6-12 inches! amazing thank you 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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