The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[eyewall]

At this point I am tanking the Maalox. 12z GFS up next.

[UnionCountyNCWX]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Icon heaviest snow in NC just N of Fayetteville and NE with big hits those locations. It also gives me a rare for this area 0.5” though I’ll believe that when I see it!

And thats just 10:1 as well so boost those numbers just a bit too!!!

[olafminesaw]

Just now, Snowncanes said:

Just to illustrate how much we are splitting hairs… here is the 500mb view of the upper low from the FV3 and the RGEM. Nearly identical in placement but the tilt is just a tad bit better on the FV3 and the flow is more onshore and pulls the coastal in just a tiny bit more. Ideally we’d have this thing closing off and going neutral in central Tennessee/north Alabama and we aren’t terribly far from that. But that’s what would give us our best shot at board wide happiness lol.

Exactly. We need to rely on the Globals now to nail down the tilt and then once the mesoscale models come into agreement on the low placement we can start to talk details. A more Easterly/offshore track is still possible, but globals generally don't show that solution 

[HWY316wx]

Georgia folks.  Time to wake up.  The westward trend is our friend.  I am going to hug the 6Z EURO into Sunday.

[NYweatherguy]

The 12Z RGEM looks solid for Atlanta metro and points north and east. Hoping we continue the westward trend. 

[KyleEverett]

Some of this is why winter weather is unfun to track at times. For our region, someone has to lose if someone else is winning. Like of course I love the western solutions but it comes at the cost of RDU snow.

[Snowncanes]

5 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

Just to illustrate how much we are splitting hairs… here is the 500mb view of the upper low from the FV3 and the RGEM. Nearly identical in placement but the tilt is just a tad bit better on the FV3 and the flow is more onshore and pulls the coastal in just a tiny bit more. Ideally we’d have this thing closing off and going neutral in central Tennessee/north Alabama and we aren’t terribly far from that. But that’s what would give us our best shot at board wide happiness lol.

Adding the RRFS since that just gave us a big snow. Just trying to help people see the why behind the pretty color maps

[Rsheely88]

Some Hope! 15-20:1 rations would be big totals




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[Rsheely88]

Pretty big shift




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[wxdawg10]

5 minutes ago, KyleEverett said:

Some of this is why winter weather is unfun to track at times. For our region, someone has to lose if someone else is winning. Like of course I love the western solutions but it comes at the cost of RDU snow.

Every pulling for trends that contradict one another for their backyard..

 

That's the nature of snow in the south

[Blacksburg Coach]

37 minutes ago, PeeDeeWx said:

Confused why folks are upset over the latest NAM?

 

Because the thread goes through Virginia

[DTP]

SC DNR has a really good write-up for a close analog to this type of setup that occurred on 1.2-1.3.2002

 

PDF file is too big to post, but worth the read if you do a quick Google search....it shows the entire upper air synoptic progression/summary in good detail throughout the storm

[Blacksburg Coach]

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

Consistently north. Kinda confusing as to why 

[NEGA_Dawg]

16 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

Georgia folks.  Time to wake up.  The westward trend is our friend.  I am going to hug the 6Z EURO into Sunday.

11.5 inches of snow in my area would be a record i think.

[olafminesaw]

GFS looks like an improvement in the upper levels,further west with the trough and a tiny bit more negative tilt

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS shaping up to be a good run…

[Snowncanes]

Gfs looks better out to 54. Closes the low way earlier and is slightly west

[wake4est]

[wncsnow]

GFS is trending towards what the Euro showed last night. 

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS shaping up to be a good run…

So close to a big boom, just not quite there with the coastal. The tiniest bit more tilt and we would all be quite pleased, as it stands this is a big run for coastal areas

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS is an epic storm for Jacksonville

[ADB83]

Not weenie numbers but I would take it right this second


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[Blacksburg Coach]

I'll take it!!

[franklin NCwx]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

GFS is trending towards what the Euro showed last night. 

Baby steps! Its very close with placement but slower to go neutral/negative tilt

[ADB83]

This is a very fine line. A slight adjustment is boom territory or not so boom. I’d take the median and be thrilled


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[Blacksburg Coach]

Sorry friends in GA, we should be posting regional maps

[Shad]

Careful with the GFS....its been a really bad model lately....

[NorthHillsWx]

Over last 36 hours our posters in South Carolina should be thrilled with these trends 

[Blacksburg Coach]

2 minutes ago, Shad said:

Careful with the GFS....its been a really bad model lately....

When we have the Euro and GFS looking very similar it helps. Add in the short range ensembles and the Global ensembles we're starting to see something