The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[mstr4j]

Actually, Upstate peeps needs that AIGFS total accumulated precip to VERIFY - then it is freaking on like donkey kong from Atlanta, through upstate, through NC and Southern Va - Freaking Jack Pot City

[USCG RS]

6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I am thinking the sooner the trough digs and tilts negative the better shot the coastal low will have to become dominant and cause both lows to consolidate further west?

An earlier digging/negative trough would force a consolidation of energy, likely closer to the coast. 

 

[franklin NCwx]

1 minute ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

Is RGem ever accurate? 

One of the better models out there

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

Is RGem ever accurate? 

RGEM tends to be deadly within 36-48 hrs (not always). Outside of that, like the NAM, it can be wonky. 

[lilj4425]

2 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

Is RGem ever accurate? 

Better than the 84 hour NAM luckily.

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

Is RGem ever accurate? 

Usually can give us a good indicator as to which way the Canadian Global Model is going to go, similar to FV3 with GFS.

[wncsnow]

Way better than the NAM and it did pretty well with the last storm. 

[Snowncanes]

I just looked at the point forecast for RDU, and if my math isn’t failing me thats 11” and still snowing lol. Also 20mph gusts through the height of the storm. Crazy.

[mstr4j]

Looks like something else perking up the interest at the end of the GFS run

[BooneWX]

Use the NAM for profiles, not precip output. Profiles won’t be an issue in this storm tho.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Matthew Cappucci is on board 

[mstr4j]

Just now, BooneWX said:

Use the NAM for profiles, not precip output. Profiles won’t be an issue in this storm tho.

NAM was great with profiles on the last storm.  Only one that showed us with sleet through the duration of the storm - just missed the 8 hour dry slot over the Upstate - but do we really need a model to tell us that?  Kind of a given these days in the Upstate. 

[USCG RS]

8 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Better than the 84 hour NAM luckily.

I mean... Blind folding a bed ridden hamster and asking them in English to step on what they think will happen probably has the same statistical probabilities of verifying. (I jest. Kinda). 

[Buddy1987]

GFS is off and running. Good luck everyone

[airmarci]

29 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I might be wrong but isn't the National Blend like a run or 2 behind? Wondering if its picking up on 18z or 0z last night. 

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm-model-inputs

[USCG RS]

5 minutes ago, mstr4j said:

NAM was great with profiles on the last storm.  Only one that showed us with sleet through the duration of the storm - just missed the 8 hour dry slot over the Upstate - but do we really need a model to tell us that?  Kind of a given these days in the Upstate. 

To be fair, I'm pretty sure the NAM got it right for the wrong reasons. The prevailing consensus on what I hear is that the low level cold air was so dense that it actually allowed refreeze just before it hit the ground. I saw several reports of tall trees with ZR accumulation at the top and then it was just converted to sleet at the ground. 

The NAM showed a deeper cold wedge and that was not quite what happened. Now, should that negate what took place and it's forecast? Honestly I'm not sure. But it still didn't quite nail it I don't think. 

[mstr4j]

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

To be fair, I'm pretty sure the NAM got it right for the wrong reasons. The prevailing consensus on what I hear is that the low level cold air was so dense that it actually allowed refreeze just before it hit the ground. I saw several reports of tall trees with ZR accumulation at the top and then it was just converted to sleet at the ground. 

The NAM showed a deeper cold wedge and that was not quite what happened. Now, should that negate what took place and it's forecast? Honestly I'm not sure. But it still didn't quite nail it I don't think. 

I am not going to disagree with that - areas to my WNW ( and I mean within 30 miles and closer to the escarpment got pounded with ZR - we didn't really flip over until the last hour or 2 - That's the thing about models, it can be right for one neck of the woods and be off somewhere else along with other anomalies such as you described.  I just know moving forward - the one that shows the longest duration of a dry slot - we gonna roll with that one! 

[Buddy1987]

Early guess at 36 has me say the trends at 12Z are not western folks friends put it that way. Don't like the fact things are tending to stay more positively tilted and east.

[mstr4j]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Early guess at 36 has me say the trends at 12Z are not western folks friends put it that way. Don't like the fact things are tending to stay more positively tilted and east.

Rut Roh

[Buddy1987]

Just now, mstr4j said:

Rut Roh

I could be off in the end but I don't personally like upstairs thus far. Feels like we're going the opposite way of what the Foothills and SW VA at least would want. Eyewall will be happy with today for sure thus far for example or NorthHills

[olafminesaw]

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

I could be off in the end but I don't personally like upstairs thus far. Feels like we're going the opposite way of what the Foothills and SW VA at least would want. Eyewall will be happy with today for sure thus far for example or NorthHills

Doesn't look much different to me so far. 

[Tony Sisk]

37 minutes ago, UpstateSCBud said:

Easy my friend. You’re gonna have a rough couple of days if you let one run of the NAM at this range send you cliff diving 

As GSP NEW said...

...and so some degree of
deterministic run-to-run model shenanigans are to be expected over
the next 24 hours or so, with single model runs depicting jogs to
the east (less snow) or to the west (more snow) to be expected

[Buddy1987]

Someone way smarter than me can correct me if i'm wrong but at 48 and now in recent runs, i've noticed that lobe of stronger energy migrating westward from Nova Scotia, is tending to buckle the confluence south and shunt things. Anyone else see that?

[DTP]

57 minutes ago, KyleEverett said:

It's a tale as old as time for Upstate and Northern SC. 

We will have better luck on this storm....you are in a pretty good spot for this type of setup

[Tony Sisk]

32 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Raleigh NWS forecast. FRAME IT

you would think "HEAVY SNOW" would be 100%.  Why can't I understand the percentages?

[Snowncanes]

AiGFS has the low closing off further north like the RGEM. Dives it down through extreme NE Alabama. Neutral to slightly negative tilt too. Looks like a great run 

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, Tony Sisk said:

you would think "HEAVY SNOW" would be 100%.  Why can't I understand the percentages?

It's the chance of precip. 70% chance of heavy snow. 

[wncsnow]

AIGFS

[Buddy1987]

Out to 66 trough axis is def more positively tilted and western edge isn't digging as much. Not great thus far.