The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[lilj4425]

2 minutes ago, WiseWeather said:

Got the 50lb test line ready??


.

Oh yeah. This one ain’t getting away.  

[BornAgain13]

[BornAgain13]

6z GFS looks more realistic instead of 35-40" over more areas, its 15-30"  depending on location.

[BornAgain13]

Wider View

[lilj4425]

5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Still showing that dry slot over Upstate SC.  It just refuses to get rid of that. 

[sarcean]

9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

6z GFS looks more realistic instead of 35-40" over more areas, its 15-30"  depending on location.

Nearly two feet in Raliegh is not realistic but it's promising to see on the map. 

26 years ago Raleigh got 20 inches and that was the all-time record for single storm. Even a foot will shutdown the city for a week.

[NorthHillsWx]

8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

6z GFS looks more realistic instead of 35-40" over more areas, its 15-30"  depending on location.

Not many times we get to argue over 15-30” vs 35-40” clown maps within 3 days of a storm  

[BornAgain13]

5 run trend of GFS 

[BornAgain13]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Not many times we get to argue over 15-30” vs 35-40” clown maps within 3 days of a storm  

Very true. I need sleep lol

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

5 run trend of GFS 

Pretty dang consistent all things considered 

[BornAgain13]

RRFS A , still snowing at the end of this.

[lilj4425]

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Pretty dang consistent all things considered 

That southern line of the cutoff continues to move north though. 

[Met1985]

4 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

That southern line of the cutoff continues to move north though. 

You shouldn't be surprised. 

[BornAgain13]

6z GEFS

[lilj4425]

12 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

You shouldn't be surprised. 

I’m not. Definitely moving the wrong direction. Need it to trend back south. 

[Met1985]

6 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

I’m not. Definitely moving the wrong direction. Need it to trend back south. 

It won't.  Hopefully just slight movements north with such a strong arctic high.

[WXNewton]

GEFS becoming pretty consistent of the overall totals and area to be affected. Looks like major jumps, have turned into wobbles at this point. I would expect minor shifts each run, with the overall footprint starting to lock in. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

BAM honks 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

GFS had last weekend’s storm two weeks before it occurred 

[lilj4425]

Anybody got the AI Euro?

[ADB83]

0z WeatherNext 2.0


.

[SUNYGRAD]

general 4-8 inches with snow ratios, with higher amounts in Smokies, and along coast.

[strongwxnc]

 

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 627 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

 

Key message 3: Confidence is increasing that a significant winter weather event will impact at least a portion of the forecast area from Friday night through Saturday, with snow expected to be the primary precipitation type. Due to cold temperatures leading up to the event, impacts to travel could be significant. An intense short wave trough/evolving upper low is forecast to dig from the Corn Belt at the start of the period, to the Tenn Valley by Sat afternoon before the center of the upper low passes over, or just south of our CWA late Saturday...becoming increasingly negatively tilted w/ strong downstream diffluence as time passes. The timing of the development of this diffluence will be key in determining the placement and timing of cyclogenesis near the Southeast Coast Fri night/Saturday and associated sensible weather impacts for our forecast area. What is becoming clear is that surface development will occur close enough to the coast to allow frontogenetically-forced moisture and lift to impact at least the eastern half of the CWA Fri night into Saturday. PoPs have been increased to likely in these areas by Saturday morning...with at least solid chances across the western half. In terms of the precip type, temperatures may borderline at the RA/SN boundary for some areas at the beginning of the event, but all locations should quickly transition to snow as cold advection intensifies on the west side of the developing cyclone. In terms of QPF, the general consensus among deterministic and ensemble guidance is in the 0.25-0.5" range for much of the area, with the higher end of that range being more probable along/east of the I-77 corridor. However, with forecast profiles quickly cooling to well-below freezing through a deep layer, and surface temps that are expected to linger in the 20s, snow ratios look to be higher than the textbook 10:1 rule of thumb with this event, with snow ratio guidance from the National Blend of Models suggesting ratios of 15-20:1 are very possible. Based upon the latest NBM probabilistic guidance...which is largely supported by the individual ensemble systems of the ECMWF/Canadian/GFS, much of the forecast area will likely see at least Advisory-level snowfall, with solid chances for Warning-level snow of 3" or over areas roughly east of I-26. Much of this event is beyond the short term...and so some degree of deterministic run-to-run model shenanigans are to be expected over the next 24 hours or so, with single model runs depicting jogs to the east (less snow) or to the west (more snow) to be expected, but the key point is that at least Winter Weather Advisory-level snowfall now appears likely across all but the western quarter of the CWA by the end of Saturday.

[olafminesaw]

One limiting factor I noticed this morning is the low is pretty sprawling to start and takes a while to tighten up. The low track of the Euro is close to ideal ideal but suffers from slower consolidation than the GFS (a little further north than we would like as well)

[strongwxnc]

SO67  VRB02KT  30.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0/0200Z  68  VRB02KT  31.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
260131/0300Z  69  VRB02KT  30.8F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014    9:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
260131/0400Z  70  03003KT  31.0F  SNOW   11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023   10:1|  0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0
260131/0500Z  71  03003KT  30.6F  SNOW   11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019   10:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06  100|  0|  0
260131/0600Z  72  03004KT  30.3F  SNOW    8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019   10:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
260131/0700Z  73  03005KT  29.6F  SNOW   14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010   10:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
260131/0800Z  74  04005KT  28.5F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010   10:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10  100|  0|  0
260131/0900Z  75  04006KT  27.8F  SNOW   16:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010   11:1|  1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11  100|  0|  0
260131/1000Z  76  05006KT  26.7F  SNOW   14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009   11:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11  100|  0|  0
260131/1100Z  77  05006KT  26.3F  SNOW   15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015   12:1|  1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13  100|  0|  0
260131/1200Z  78  04006KT  26.0F  SNOW   14:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019   12:1|  1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
260131/1300Z  79  04007KT  25.4F  SNOW   14:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021   12:1|  2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17  100|  0|  0
260131/1400Z  80  04008KT  25.6F  SNOW   13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022   12:1|  2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19  100|  0|  0
260131/1500Z  81  04009KT  26.0F  SNOW   16:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022   13:1|  2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21  100|  0|  0
260131/1600Z  82  05009KT  25.8F  SNOW   19:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029   13:1|  3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24  100|  0|  0
260131/1700Z  83  05010KT  25.4F  SNOW   21:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039   14:1|  4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28  100|  0|  0
260131/1800Z  84  04011KT  24.9F  SNOW   25:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039   16:1|  5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.32  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
260131/1900Z  85  05010KT  24.7F  SNOW   26:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039   17:1|  6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36  100|  0|  0
260131/2000Z  86  05010KT  24.7F  SNOW   24:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038   17:1|  6.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40  100|  0|  0
260131/2100Z  87  05009KT  24.5F  SNOW   24:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036   18:1|  7.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43  100|  0|  0
260131/2200Z  88  04007KT  24.5F  SNOW   25:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035   18:1|  8.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47  100|  0|  0
260131/2300Z  89  35010KT  23.3F  SNOW   29:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046   19:1| 10.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51  100|  0|  0
260201/0000Z  90  33011KT  19.7F  SNOW   13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012   19:1| 10.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53  100|  0|  0

 

 

Some high ratio showing up for KHKY on the 06GFS. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[eyewall]

At the surface, cyclogenesis appears likely just off the Southeast
coast, where a weaker but still prevalent baroclinic zone is
forecast over the Gulf Stream. The primary front is expected to be
still draped across the Bahamas, setting up a probable instant
occlusion low surface pattern. The low off the Carolina coast is
expected to rapidly deepen Sat into Sat night, as stronger synoptic
ascent overspreads the Gulf stream and the main synoptic front is
pulled northward. On the backside of the low, an Arctic airmass will
become locked in over the Mid-Atlantic as the low deepens off the
coast, resulting in potentially record breaking low max temperatures
during the event.

This pattern is favorable for at least light snow with a high
snow/liquid ratio within central NC, but also brings an incredibly
difficult forecast challenge related to a deformation band on the
north and west side of the deepening low. The likelihood of band
formation, let alone its timing and placement, remains a point of
considerable uncertainty and may not be ironed out until 1-2 days
before the event begins. However, the top analogs and latest suite
of 00z model guidance highlights at least the potential for
significant snowfall totals somewhere from the Carolinas into the
Mid-Atlantic.

There are a few failure modes for this setup which would result in
less precipitation over central NC. The first is the placement and
the latitude the mid/upper level low closes; minor adjustments will
have potentially significant ramifications on if/when/where the
deformation band sets up. The second is that some degree of
cyclogenesis will occur along the primary baroclinic zone over the
Bahamas and may draw stronger ascent, moisture, and related liquid
equivalent and snow amounts away from the instant occlusion-type,
nearer-shore coastal low.

[olafminesaw]

0z vs 6z EPS is a nice uptrend

[Louise]

1 hour ago, sarcean said:

Nearly two feet in Raliegh is not realistic but it's promising to see on the map. 

26 years ago Raleigh got 20 inches and that was the all-time record for single storm. Even a foot will shutdown the city for a week.

Remember it well. We had blizzard like conditions! 

[Upstate Tiger]

Key take away from GSP, “expect model shenanigans to continue”.