The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[lilj4425]

2 minutes ago, WiseWeather said:

Got the 50lb test line ready??


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Oh yeah. This one ain’t getting away.  

[BornAgain13]

[BornAgain13]

6z GFS looks more realistic instead of 35-40" over more areas, its 15-30"  depending on location.

[BornAgain13]

Wider View

[lilj4425]

5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Still showing that dry slot over Upstate SC.  It just refuses to get rid of that. 

[sarcean]

9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

6z GFS looks more realistic instead of 35-40" over more areas, its 15-30"  depending on location.

Nearly two feet in Raliegh is not realistic but it's promising to see on the map. 

26 years ago Raleigh got 20 inches and that was the all-time record for single storm. Even a foot will shutdown the city for a week.

[NorthHillsWx]

8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

6z GFS looks more realistic instead of 35-40" over more areas, its 15-30"  depending on location.

Not many times we get to argue over 15-30” vs 35-40” clown maps within 3 days of a storm  

[BornAgain13]

5 run trend of GFS 

[BornAgain13]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Not many times we get to argue over 15-30” vs 35-40” clown maps within 3 days of a storm  

Very true. I need sleep lol

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

5 run trend of GFS 

Pretty dang consistent all things considered 

[BornAgain13]

RRFS A , still snowing at the end of this.

[lilj4425]

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Pretty dang consistent all things considered 

That southern line of the cutoff continues to move north though. 

[Met1985]

4 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

That southern line of the cutoff continues to move north though. 

You shouldn't be surprised. 

[BornAgain13]

6z GEFS

[lilj4425]

12 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

You shouldn't be surprised. 

I’m not. Definitely moving the wrong direction. Need it to trend back south. 

[Met1985]

6 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

I’m not. Definitely moving the wrong direction. Need it to trend back south. 

It won't.  Hopefully just slight movements north with such a strong arctic high.

[WXNewton]

GEFS becoming pretty consistent of the overall totals and area to be affected. Looks like major jumps, have turned into wobbles at this point. I would expect minor shifts each run, with the overall footprint starting to lock in. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

BAM honks 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

GFS had last weekend’s storm two weeks before it occurred 

[lilj4425]

Anybody got the AI Euro?

[ADB83]

0z WeatherNext 2.0


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[SUNYGRAD]

general 4-8 inches with snow ratios, with higher amounts in Smokies, and along coast.

[strongwxnc]

 

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 627 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

 

Key message 3: Confidence is increasing that a significant winter weather event will impact at least a portion of the forecast area from Friday night through Saturday, with snow expected to be the primary precipitation type. Due to cold temperatures leading up to the event, impacts to travel could be significant. An intense short wave trough/evolving upper low is forecast to dig from the Corn Belt at the start of the period, to the Tenn Valley by Sat afternoon before the center of the upper low passes over, or just south of our CWA late Saturday...becoming increasingly negatively tilted w/ strong downstream diffluence as time passes. The timing of the development of this diffluence will be key in determining the placement and timing of cyclogenesis near the Southeast Coast Fri night/Saturday and associated sensible weather impacts for our forecast area. What is becoming clear is that surface development will occur close enough to the coast to allow frontogenetically-forced moisture and lift to impact at least the eastern half of the CWA Fri night into Saturday. PoPs have been increased to likely in these areas by Saturday morning...with at least solid chances across the western half. In terms of the precip type, temperatures may borderline at the RA/SN boundary for some areas at the beginning of the event, but all locations should quickly transition to snow as cold advection intensifies on the west side of the developing cyclone. In terms of QPF, the general consensus among deterministic and ensemble guidance is in the 0.25-0.5" range for much of the area, with the higher end of that range being more probable along/east of the I-77 corridor. However, with forecast profiles quickly cooling to well-below freezing through a deep layer, and surface temps that are expected to linger in the 20s, snow ratios look to be higher than the textbook 10:1 rule of thumb with this event, with snow ratio guidance from the National Blend of Models suggesting ratios of 15-20:1 are very possible. Based upon the latest NBM probabilistic guidance...which is largely supported by the individual ensemble systems of the ECMWF/Canadian/GFS, much of the forecast area will likely see at least Advisory-level snowfall, with solid chances for Warning-level snow of 3" or over areas roughly east of I-26. Much of this event is beyond the short term...and so some degree of deterministic run-to-run model shenanigans are to be expected over the next 24 hours or so, with single model runs depicting jogs to the east (less snow) or to the west (more snow) to be expected, but the key point is that at least Winter Weather Advisory-level snowfall now appears likely across all but the western quarter of the CWA by the end of Saturday.

[olafminesaw]

One limiting factor I noticed this morning is the low is pretty sprawling to start and takes a while to tighten up. The low track of the Euro is close to ideal ideal but suffers from slower consolidation than the GFS (a little further north than we would like as well)