February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[Chris78]

18 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ukmet says what storms. .05” qpf thru the run lol

It looked like it was loading up for something at the end of its run at 168

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Looks strung out and weak. WB 12Z EURO AI

I’d take it 

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Looks strung out and weak. WB 12Z EURO AI

It's a modest over running event that comes in during superbowl. I'd take that

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Looks strung out and weak. WB 12Z EURO AI

WWAW2!?!!

[Weather Will]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It's a modest over running event that comes in during superbowl. I'd take that

Super Bowl is this weekend....

[stormy]

The AI gives birth last Tuesday,  loses interest and cancels.

Now, brings it back today and gives Augusta, 4 inches of snow on the 15th.

I want to see the old time EURO in a few minutes.

 

[Weather Will]

Euro is much colder this run for next weekend but can't see surface maps yet. WB 12Z EURO.

[mitchnick]

AI ends the run with another trough in the east, but no snow unfortunately. 

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Super Bowl is this weekend....

actually it does have SB snow for you and me lol

[stormy]

EURO is dry as a gourd.      This is no improvement over the GFS.

[winter_warlock]

6 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

The 6z GFS shows one rainer after the next. Lets be honest with each other- its probably right. The details might not be right- but we need to remember our climo. We don't do marginal situations well. Heck we can't even seem to manage snowing when its 16 degrees outside. I-95 is probably cooked. Mountains still have a chance. I know you might weenie and tell me to go go to the panic room. But am I wrong? Don't say I didn't warn you. 

This is the problem when the MA, when its super cold its congrats North Carolina. When its marginal, its congrats Poconos PA. We are the snow anus. 

I hope u never get a job as a motivational speaker, cause ud suck at it

[Ji]

this looks like a baja low ejection issue again

00z

[mitchnick]

Last night's 0z Euro at 198hrs on top and 12z 186hrs on the bottom. Wtf has happened to the Euro?

[stormtracker]

We went from juice bomb cutters to precip as paltry as a met's salary.    I'm giving Mdecoy a Climatologist Tag.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Last night's 0z Euro at 198hrs on top and 12z 186hrs on the bottom. Wtf has happened to the Euro?

Ji may be onto something.   It's that baja low ejection shit

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Ji may be onto something.   It's that baja low ejection shit

AI dry too but for the overrunning thing. 

[stormy]

The model world has succumbed into KAOS during the past 6 hrs.....................

Any semblance of run to run consistency has disappeared.  

[Ji]

I think the OP models are going to be spitting out different solutions for the next several days till they figure out the PAC energy crap

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormy said:

The model world has succumbed into KAOS during the past 6 hrs.....................

Any semblance of run to run consistency has disappeared.  

I been saying it for a while, need to stop paying attention to op models past day 3. They been awful. 

[Ji]

what does the google deep state say?

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

what does the google deep state say?

1121222111122211121111221111111122211....

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

Ukmet says what storms. .05” qpf thru the run lol

Hurricane Hunter is refueling data will be ready by no later than 12z model runs Friday, February 6th 2026. 

[psuhoffman]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

AI ends the run with another trough in the east, but no snow unfortunately. 

The AO/NAO is trending negative again, which fits the seasonal norm.  We are getting into the part of the winter season where the AO/NAO have even more influence and can overcome the PAC.  Given the thermal profile established across N America if we hold a favorable atlantic configuration I doubt we enter a sustained shit the blinds no hope period...yes we will get temporary warm ups but we will also get cold air intrusions behind fronts and with timing will have opportunities the rest of the way.  

[stormtracker]

I love yall and this forum.  To cope, we use gallows humor.   Today, we coping HARD.

But if a model can go from a overrunning winter dream to a juiced cutter to nothing every other run, I have hope.   

[stormy]

16 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I been saying it for a while, need to stop paying attention to op models past day 3. They been awful. 

You know, after today, I'm inclined to agree with you!

I cannot ever remember a 6 hr. period like today.

But, even more astounding is the AI coming back to snow.  Something crazy going on!

Maybe JI has a handle on it?  

[psuhoffman]

models are usually pretty volatile during pattern changes and we are kinda looking at ranges that are beyond where consistency is typical.  

[Chris78]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Super Bowl is this weekend....

Shit lol my bad. 

Comes in presidents day eve 

[Ji]

The aifs ens is very snowy again

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

The aifs ens is very snowy again

I should start doing my "ensemble blend" method again...but I just haven't had time lately.  But a few years ago when I did that...it worked pretty good and was fairly predictive of our chances...the one actual snow we got during the 2 months I did it was the one that showed above 50% odds from a week out.  But it only worked from 5+ days out using 24 hours of ensemble runs...(which is 2 runs of the EPS and GEPS and 4 runs of the GEFS and it was weighted to give the EPS 2x more weight than the GFS and GEPS.  

 

If I did it again I would definitely add in the AIFS EPS and weight it similar to the EPS.