Arctic Hounds Unleashed: Long Duration Late January/Early February Cold Snap

[dendrite]

Good thing ORH doesn’t have classes on Sunday. 

[jbenedet]

Sunday morning looks coldest in NYC metro most have seen in their lives… Once in 50 year level potential with this.

0F in CPK is conservative. The bias is to take UHI and +5 vs guidance but the in situ cold and winds will mitigate those affects.

Very relieved personally that the axis of cold is about 250 miles west of here. Binghamton NY flirting with -20F before wind chill is holy shit level cold for our latitude. 
 

 

[jbenedet]

Also seeing that latest guidance keeps areas like binghamton, Albany and Syracuse NY sub zero all day Saturday…
 

Good luck infrastructure….

[mreaves]

I only got to -4° but I had to run an errand that took me through other parts of northern VT and I saw as low as -10° on the car thermo.  -6° when I passed the MVL ASOS around 8:00am

[dendrite]

1 in 50 years? lol

LGA probably doesn’t even break a record low min

[dendrite]

It’ll be cold for sure though…especially west of us and into WNE. The core is pretty low and shallow…-20C to -22C at 925. So they could easily get well into the single digits. 

[dendrite]

OKX soundings had -25C and -26C at 925 for 2/4/23 12z and 2/14/16 12z respectively. Mins at Central Park were +3 and -1. LGA was +5 and +1.

MOS has mins of +7 with this right now.

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Sunday morning looks coldest in NYC metro most have seen in their lives… Once in 50 year level potential with this.

0F in CPK is conservative. The bias is to take UHI and +5 vs guidance but the in situ cold and winds will mitigate those affects.

Very relieved personally that the axis of cold is about 250 miles west of here. Binghamton NY flirting with -20F before wind chill is holy shit level cold for our latitude. 
 

 

If we're talking wind chill then maybe. 50 years is a stretch though. 

[WxWatcher007]

51 minutes ago, dendrite said:

OKX soundings had -25C and -26C at 925 for 2/4/23 12z and 2/14/16 12z respectively. Mins at Central Park were +3 and -1. LGA was +5 and +1.

MOS has mins of +7 with this right now.

I didn’t realize Central Park got below zero in 2016. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

OKX soundings had -25C and -26C at 925 for 2/4/23 12z and 2/14/16 12z respectively. Mins at Central Park were +3 and -1. LGA was +5 and +1.

MOS has mins of +7 with this right now.

That early February blast in 2023 packed significant wind here, and probably NYC as well.  I don't think this weekend will have as deep a WCI as back then.

[jbenedet]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

1 in 50 years? lol

LGA probably doesn’t even break a record low min

Guy is laughing but making direct comparison to February 14 2016…

1) Significant El Niño year.

2) significantly above average month temp wise in northeast.

3) significantly less snowpack in the northeast.

4) the Great Lakes were less than 10% ice covered.

 

Using MOS verbatim for this makes little sense given how cold this year has been vs historical norms.

[dendrite]

I referenced previous events with modeled 925 temps 4-5C colder.

And I really don’t care about snowpack in the city with CAA at night. 

But we’ll see!

[ma blizzard]

Just now, dendrite said:

I referenced previous events with modeled 925 temps 4-5C colder.

And I really don’t care about snowpack in the city with CAA at night. 

But we’ll see!

literally 0% chance of it happening 

[jbenedet]

The record level cold is to our west. It’s run of the mill here. 
 

Guidance is still getting colder in NYS. Watch those 850s

[dendrite]

Just now, ma blizzard said:

literally 0% chance of it happening 

One of the NYC sites hitting 4° or 5° wouldn’t surprise me if we get that -22C core low enough, but I think it’ll be a little better mixed up to 925 than some of the mesos have.

If this ends up 1 in 50 year cold given those 850s and 925s then I will eat my hat.

But again, it will be cold. I’m not trying to meh it. Just trying to keep perspective. 

[dendrite]

850s are mid. 925 is where this is coming in at. MSS laughs at -24c 850s

[dendrite]

NYC coldest temps in the last 50 years are -2/-3 in Jan 94. So I assume you are leaning colder than that. 

[gallopinggertie]

Is there any chance sea ice forms in Long Island Sound? 

Side note, I like the cobalt color the NWS uses for their new extreme cold warnings. 

[CoastalWx]

Coldest air in New York in 50 years?

[CoastalWx]

28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I referenced previous events with modeled 925 temps 4-5C colder.

And I really don’t care about snowpack in the city with CAA at night. 

But we’ll see!

Just slapping you around like he slapped that fan that reached out and grabbed him 

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NYC coldest temps in the last 50 years are -2/-3 in Jan 94. So I assume you are leaning colder than that. 

I wouldn’t go that low bc of the wind.

My bet is around 0

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

I wouldn’t go that low bc of the wind.

My bet is around 0

NYC doesn’t radiate anyway lol

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just slapping you around like he slapped that fan that reached out and grabbed him 

His papacy shorter than this guy?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Urban_VII

[dendrite]

Well we’ll see. We can revisit this in 42hrs

[jbenedet]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Coldest air in New York in 50 years?

It’s gonna be damn near close if it isn’t.

[jbenedet]

Airmass straight outta the North Pole.

Sure it’s been sampled very well by the Inuit and polar bears.

 

[dendrite]

Where do they normally come straight outta? Compton?

 

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Where do they normally come straight outta? Compton?

 

EPS Euro GFS have a -1 low for CP HRRR goes to -5

[dendrite]

Yeah idc about 2m.  

[ma blizzard]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

One of the NYC sites hitting 4° or 5° wouldn’t surprise me if we get that -22C core low enough, but I think it’ll be a little better mixed up to 925 than some of the mesos have.

If this ends up 1 in 50 year cold given those 850s and 925s then I will eat my hat.

But again, it will be cold. I’m not trying to meh it. Just trying to keep perspective. 

5° is a much more reasonable O/U