“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just hoping we don’t get another north trend. Can’t really handle another down here.

I would just like to see it track close enough to keep the winds more ENE, than NE.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Most of it happens in 6 hours too.

That it is what I am cautious about.  Ideal snow growth zones generally get narrowed closer to go time. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would just like to see it track close enough to keep the winds more ENE, than NE.

I hear you but I generally do better with the latter.  I like catching the crumbs of the Monads. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That it is what I am cautious about.  Ideal snow growth zones generally get narrowed closer to go time. 

Let's remember it is the ICON.....

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

I think the isoentropic lift portion is slightly better hence the relatively stable / slightly increased in CNE QPF in this run

But the coastal portion of the storm... 0z last night has the best depiction of coastal portion I could find, mini CCB into Tuesday 6z... that portion of the storm I haven't seen recovered yet, but there are varying hints of it across the models. Need the energy to round trough and interact sooner

I don’t think we’ll see a 00z icon solution again. But we could see light precip on easterly flow overperform with high ratios. We’ll have a better idea of if that happens once we get inside 48h

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I hear you but I generally do better with the latter.  I like catching the crumbs of the Monads. 

Wouldn't that downslope you, too?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Let's remember it is the ICON.....

It's every model for itself right now wrt mby!   

[40/70 Benchmark]

Will, where is Jan 7, 2024 track?? I assume it was between the islands and BM?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wouldn't that downslope you, too?

Less than true E -> W fetch. 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I think the isoentropic lift portion is slightly better (despite less cyclogen-CCB Monday) hence the relatively stable / slightly increased in CNE QPF in this run

But the coastal portion of the storm... 0z last night has the best depiction of coastal portion I could find, mini CCB into Tuesday 6z... that portion of the storm I haven't seen recovered yet, but there are varying hints of it across the models. Need the energy to round trough and interact sooner

2feet isn't enough? 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wouldn't that downslope you, too?

Greenfield to Brattleboro does ok with that more NE orientation of precip. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

2feet isn't enough? 

I'm good with anything over 10" 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think anything over 18" is a bonus.

[wxsniss]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

2feet isn't enough? 

I haven't had 6" in 4 years... I'd be thrilled with 12-18" 

On the other hand, ask every single member of this board wearing a lie detector test... the answer might be "when is any amount of snow enough?"

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think anything over 18" is a bonus.

Yes. I think some of these maps are on the aggressive side at the moment. Not that 20”+ is implausible here, but I think we’d need some things to go right for that to happen based on current guidance. 

[wxsniss]

Curious what goes into this blend... it keeps revving up.

Here's the 1z Jan 23 NBM output:

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. I think some of these maps are on the aggressive side at the moment. Not that 20”+ is implausible here, but I think we’d need some things to go right for that to happen based on current guidance. 

Yes. This is what I tried to convey in my First map...I didn't explicitly display 20", but denoted that amounts in excess of 18" are possible in select areas.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Curious what goes into this blend... it keeps revving up.

Here's the 1z Jan 23 NBM output:

It’s clearly using some sort of ratio formula in addition to the QPF since that’s way more than 10 to 1 model consensus would imply. 

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Curious what goes into this blend... it keeps revving up.

Here's the 1z Jan 23 NBM output:

We’re in the 2 feet bentcarrot.com area.  495 delineates circumcision.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Curious what goes into this blend... it keeps revving up.

Here's the 1z Jan 23 NBM output:

Shrooms, weed and ecstasy?

[OrangeCTWX]

AIGFS looks pretty identical to 18z to me.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes. This is what I tried to convey in my First map...I didn't explicitly display 20", but denoted that amounts in excess of 18" are possible in select areas.

Yeah I think your first guess is pretty good. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think anything over 18" is a bonus.

There will be some 20"s but  isolated.    January 2005 had massive totals around Cambridge and Somerville but fell off considerably not too faraway.   Obviously much different storm. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, OrangeCTWX said:

AIGFS looks pretty identical to 18z to me.

don't mean to clutter here but i love your screen name picture

[dryslot]

That's a decent bump west on the 0z GFS.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. I think some of these maps are on the aggressive side at the moment. Not that 20”+ is implausible here, but I think we’d need some things to go right for that to happen based on current guidance. 

Ratios and increase in qpf. That isotrenfic slope is sick

[Typhoon Tip]

This is like different renditions of a Rembrandt … but the essence of the art really isn’t changed 

[wxsniss]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s clearly using some sort of ratio formula in addition to the QPF since that’s way more than 10 to 1 model consensus would imply. 

Just found you can actually see a mean SLR... begins 18:1 Sunday afternoon, drops to 13:1 overnight Monday across SNE... nothing too crazy

In any case, I agree I don't see any guidance supporting widespread 20"+ amounts

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is like different renditions of a Rembrandt … but the essence of the art really isn’t changed 

The paint still isn't being thrown thick enough for historic references

[OrangeCTWX]

GFS is juicy, though a little closer with the taint as well