January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[LVblizzard]

5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The ground is going to be white deep into March 

You’re like 15 miles south of me. How much is still left there? I’ve been away since Monday.

[RedSky]

Just now, LVblizzard said:

You’re like 15 miles south of me. How much is still left there? I’ve been away since Monday.

9 miles south of I78 

5" depth

[zenmsav6810]

What does the operational Euro say? Wfmz is still bullish.

[LVblizzard]

6 minutes ago, RedSky said:

9 miles south of I78 

5" depth

Wow so basically no melting this week. Yeah this will stick around for awhile.

[Duca892]

My god this is really becoming a snow bust lmfao 

[bringmesnow1]

18 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The sleet output should be epic in southeast Pa

Oh.  Joy.

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, RedSky said:

9 miles south of I78 

5" depth

About 4" in Warminster fwiw

[Hurricane Agnes]

10 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

What does the operational Euro say? Wfmz is still bullish.

No 0z for that yet (at least that I have access to). Last was 18z.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Changeover up here looks to happen between 1 and 3PM Sunday. Roughly 5-7" on the ground prior to any change.

[RedSky]

7 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Wow so basically no melting this week. Yeah this will stick around for awhile.

A high water content base after Sunday and a cold 30 day long range loaded like bear for future chances

Not down at all over this

[LVblizzard]

RRFS gets the sleet line to Scranton. Meanwhile none of the other mesos (minus the NAM) get it past the Lehigh Valley. Quite the battle we have here.

[RedSky]

2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

RRFS gets the sleet line to Scranton. Meanwhile none of the other mesos (minus the NAM) get it past the Lehigh Valley. Quite the battle we have here.

My 0z Saturday prediction with sleet my fault

[Hurricane Agnes]

Haven't had chance to deep dive into weather.us's stuff but here is the 0z NAM p-type from that.

[Lucy Pull]

Good news the ICON is a tic better. Bad news it’s the ICON. 

[JTA66]

Welp, the cold is here at least.

15F/DP -5F

[Violentweatherfan]

56 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

First Call Forecast 

Went with a EC/AIFS/AIGFS blend with a stronger push on the FGEN, front end thump to help with many on Sunday AM, but I am very very wary of the NAM Nest right now, so will revise if necessary tomorrow. For now, I'm sticking with this. I do think banding will be impressive area wide. Just a matter of how thermals behave. Going to be a big day of trend monitoring tomorrow. Also, the lines are imperfect. I wish I had a better program, but utilized Microsoft Designer and it wasn't too bad. Wil work with it. 

Well, I was gonna post this but….

[Chadzachadam]

Call me crazy but I’ll go with 10” for my backyard plus maybe an inch of sleet on top. Don’t think we get any significant freezing rain. We’ve had some solid performances with SW flow events recently, if the initial thump last 6-8 hours I think 10” is attainable

[Violentweatherfan]

Well, I had about enough of this. I’m gonna go watch hijack on Apple TV channels.

[Lucy Pull]

Gfs still not really backing down slight shift north.

[LVblizzard]

1 minute ago, Lucy Pull said:

Gfs still not really backing down slight shift north.

It’s getting that sweet recon data. But the GFS is still the GFS. It’s more likely than not to let us down in the end. I’ve seen this movie too many times before.

[JTA66]

RGEM still showing that really nice thump before any change to IP.

The GFS will figure it out 6Z Tuesday.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

It’s getting that sweet recon data. But the GFS is still the GFS. It’s more likely than not to let us down in the end. I’ve seen this movie too many times before.

Watch, the gfs at the last minute will blast the sleet line farther north than any other guidance. It would be typical of this model.

[Lucy Pull]

With regard to north of 78 euro, gfs, and icon aren’t that far apart. 

[mattinpa]

Overall except for the NAM doesn’t look so bad tonight. Maybe the GFS is the right one for a change. 

[JTA66]

Just now, mattinpa said:

Overall except for the NAM doesn’t look so bad tonight. Maybe the GFS is the right one for a change. 

I’m sticking with my 6-10” idea, though leaning toward the lower end now. Still, get under the heavier rates and delay the changeover by an hour or two, 8” is still possible.

[mattinpa]

Just now, JTA66 said:

I’m sticking with my 6-10” idea, though leaning toward the lower end now. Still, get under the heavier rates and delay the changeover by an hour or two, 8” is still possible.

I was thinking 10-12” before, but 7 to 8 may be more likely now. 

[anthonyweather]

RRFS gets the sleet line to Scranton. Meanwhile none of the other mesos (minus the NAM) get it past the Lehigh Valley. Quite the battle we have here.

Here’s the real problem on the RRFS


.

[Ralph Wiggum]

CMC much colder. Big thumper

 

[MacChump]

37 minutes ago, Chadzachadam said:

Call me crazy but I’ll go with 10” for my backyard plus maybe an inch of sleet on top. Don’t think we get any significant freezing rain. We’ve had some solid performances with SW flow events recently, if the initial thump last 6-8 hours I think 10” is attainable

where are you?

[Chadzachadam]

1 minute ago, MacChump said:

where are you?

NW Philly about 6 miles from center city