Hurricane Agnes Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, wkd said: Need to see the Kuchera map The AI one doesn't have that option (unless it's just a Pivotal Weather thing). The regular EC is still running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Dr No is cruel again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago EC 12z Kuchera - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Winter Storm Warnings hoisted for 12-18in. NWS MT. Holly extremely bullish from the get go for the Lehigh Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 15 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: The AI one looks conservative compared to everything else. How this went from congrats S VA to congrats Boston in 48 hours is incredible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago ECM punches the sleet line through the Delaware Valley Sunday Evening then dryslot by midnight all this keeps the totals down to 6-9" on the 10:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Euro isn’t bad at all. Actually bumps up totals a bit for the Philly area. However the LV/Poconos don’t get as big of a thump. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Duca892 said: Winter Storm Warnings hoisted for 12-18in. NWS MT. Holly extremely bullish from the get go for the Lehigh Valley. That seems very reasonable for N of i78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: How this went from congrats S VA to congrats Boston in 48 hours is incredible. Congrats us on most guidance except the doctor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: That seems very reasonable for N of i78. Pretty incredible 10 years ago 202 would be 'the line' and even 15 years ago it would have been i95. Climo keeps pushing that line farther and farther n and w. 1 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, RedSky said: Dr No is cruel again Even though it's not a strict "Miller B", the whole setup feels like a hybrid one with a low riding up a cold front as the front moves east, and then transferring out to the coast. Anything that even hints at "Miller B" seems to always be hard to nail down. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Looks like Mount Holly included Berks for the 10-15" warning in the area between I-78 and I-95. And then areas along/near I-95 and south it's 8-12". North of I-78 it's 12-18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Does FRAM include sleet? Philly .31"is that ZR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Newman said: Looks like Mount Holly included Berks for the 10-15" warning in the area between I-78 and I-95. And then areas along/near I-95 and south it's 8-12". North of I-78 it's 12-18". The inevitable slow scale back has begun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago WSW - Quote URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1238 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ016>019-021-027-PAZ070-071-101-102- 104-241100- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T1800Z/ New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem- Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester- Eastern Montgomery- Including the cities of West Chester, Glassboro, Cherry Hill, Media, Camden, Philadelphia, Norristown, Dover, Millville, Centreville, Lansdale, Wilmington, Easton, Moorestown, Denton, Wharton State Forest, Pennsville, Chestertown, Honey Brook, Kennett Square, Oxford, and Mount Holly 1238 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations between 8 and 12 inches and ice accumulations around three tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, northeast Maryland, southern New Jersey, and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Significant ice accumulation on power lines and tree limbs may cause widespread and long-lasting power outages. Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Wow. Not sure my location will hit double digits before the flip. I'll take 6-8" and like it. It's that frozen junk that has me worried. Huge storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago .31" ZR is borderline ice storm problem in Philly 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago This one's 10 to 15" Quote URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1238 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 NJZ008>010-012>015-020-026-PAZ060-103-105-106-241100- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.260125T0600Z-260126T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T1800Z/ Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-Berks-Western Montgomery- Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of New Brunswick, Long Beach Island, Perkasie, Reading, Trenton, Pottstown, Somerville, Sandy Hook, Collegeville, Flemington, Freehold, Jackson, Morrisville, Doylestown, Morristown, and Chalfont 1238 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow with mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 15 inches and ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Does FRAM include sleet? Philly .31"is that ZR Apparently just ZR accumulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: Does FRAM include sleet? Philly .31"is that ZR Just ice from freezing rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Even though it's not a strict "Miller B", the whole setup feels like a hybrid one with a low riding up a cold front as the front moves east, and then transferring out to the coast. Anything that even hints at "Miller B" seems to always be hard to nail down. I had a comment that this seemed like this storm was a Miller B/Miller C hybrid- but no one seemed to appreciate my comment. It was mocked even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Pretty incredible 10 years ago 202 would be 'the line' and even 15 years ago it would have been i95. Climo keeps pushing that line farther and farther n and w. I think local development and more impervious surface/blacktop effect has a lot to do with this too which is also a man made climo effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: I had a comment that this seemed like this storm was a Miller B/Miller C hybrid- but no one seemed to appreciate my comment. It was mocked even. I saw your comment. The whole "transfer to the coast" thing always catches my attention. I had never heard of a "Miller C" but apparently it is a "thing" with La Nina ENSO. The 13z NBM doesn't look good (ice wise). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Pretty incredible 10 years ago 202 would be 'the line' and even 15 years ago it would have been i95. Climo keeps pushing that line farther and farther n and w. I disagree with this wholeheartedly. Climo has always favored NW areas of this region for as long as I've been alive. Hell the Fall Line definition in MT holly has always been N and W of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 9 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: I had a comment that this seemed like this storm was a Miller B/Miller C hybrid- but no one seemed to appreciate my comment. It was mocked even. It was always a B/C to me Though technically for us it's an over running warm front style thump as the coastal does nothing here and hits New England 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I disagree with this wholeheartedly. Climo has always favored NW areas of this region for as long as I've been alive. Not so much for ice (sleet/ZR) versus snow though.... Although I remember going on a senior class trip to Tamiment in the Poconos back in '79 in January and there was ZR that weekend with the slopes too slick to ski on and then the temps hit 40, so it was either ice skating in their indoor rink or board games. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted 55 minutes ago Share Posted 55 minutes ago 28 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: How this went from congrats S VA to congrats Boston in 48 hours is incredible. That's why I wasn't hating on the suppressed looks early in the week. My weenie eyes have seen this movie too many times. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted 53 minutes ago Share Posted 53 minutes ago I think the 2000's/early 2010's really shifted perspectives to how climo actually is in this region... Philadelphia itself has only gotten a 10" or more snowstorm 31 times since 1883. Averages out to like 1 every 5 years. It really isn't a common occurrence, never was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 52 minutes ago Author Share Posted 52 minutes ago 14 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I disagree with this wholeheartedly. Climo has always favored NW areas of this region for as long as I've been alive. Hell the Fall Line definition in MT holly has always been N and W of 95. But 20 years ago this setup would never have pushed the mix line that far N and W as this one. And I understand this is more 700-800 mb layer stuff, but still. Yes, climo always N and W i agree. But when did i78 become the line? This is 4th or 5th time since 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted 51 minutes ago Share Posted 51 minutes ago 23 minutes ago, MGorse said: Just ice from freezing rain. Doesn’t power outages start or so around 0.25” liquid of Frz Rain growing more concerned for central Delaware County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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