January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[Hurricane Agnes]

Just now, wkd said:

Need to see the Kuchera map

The AI one doesn't have that option (unless it's just a Pivotal Weather thing).  The regular EC is still running.

[RedSky]

Dr No is cruel again

[Hurricane Agnes]

EC 12z Kuchera -

[Duca892]

Winter Storm Warnings hoisted for 12-18in. NWS MT. Holly extremely bullish from the get go for the Lehigh Valley. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

15 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

The AI one looks conservative compared to everything else.

How this went from congrats S VA to congrats Boston in 48 hours is incredible.

[RedSky]

ECM punches the sleet line through the Delaware Valley Sunday Evening then dryslot by midnight all this keeps the totals down to 6-9" on the 10:1

 

 

[LVblizzard]

Euro isn’t bad at all. Actually bumps up totals a bit for the Philly area. However the LV/Poconos don’t get as big of a thump.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Duca892 said:

Winter Storm Warnings hoisted for 12-18in. NWS MT. Holly extremely bullish from the get go for the Lehigh Valley. 

That seems very reasonable for N of i78. 

[RedSky]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

How this went from congrats S VA to congrats Boston in 48 hours is incredible.

Congrats us on most guidance except the doctor

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

That seems very reasonable for N of i78. 

Pretty incredible 10 years ago 202 would be 'the line' and even 15 years ago it would have been i95. Climo keeps pushing that line farther and farther n and w.

[Hurricane Agnes]

6 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Dr No is cruel again

Even though it's not a strict "Miller B", the whole setup feels like a hybrid one with a low riding up a cold front as the front moves east, and then transferring out to the coast.  Anything that even hints at "Miller B" seems to always be hard to nail down.

[Newman]

Looks like Mount Holly included Berks for the 10-15" warning in the area between I-78 and I-95. And then areas along/near I-95 and south it's 8-12". North of I-78 it's 12-18".

[RedSky]

Does FRAM include sleet? Philly .31"is that ZR

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Newman said:

Looks like Mount Holly included Berks for the 10-15" warning in the area between I-78 and I-95. And then areas along/near I-95 and south it's 8-12". North of I-78 it's 12-18".

The inevitable slow scale back has begun.

[Hurricane Agnes]

WSW - 

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1238 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ016>019-021-027-PAZ070-071-101-102-
104-241100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T1800Z/
New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Southeastern
Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Eastern Montgomery-
Including the cities of West Chester, Glassboro, Cherry Hill,
Media, Camden, Philadelphia, Norristown, Dover, Millville,
Centreville, Lansdale, Wilmington, Easton, Moorestown, Denton,
Wharton State Forest, Pennsville, Chestertown, Honey Brook,
Kennett Square, Oxford, and Mount Holly
1238 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations between 8 and 12 inches and ice accumulations around
  three tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, northeast
  Maryland, southern New Jersey, and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Significant ice accumulation on power lines and tree
  limbs may cause widespread and long-lasting power outages. Power
  outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be
  nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the
  Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

 

[Lady Di]

Wow.  Not sure my location will hit double digits before the flip.  I'll take 6-8" and like it.  It's that frozen junk that has me worried. Huge storm.

[RedSky]

.31" ZR is borderline ice storm problem in Philly

 

[The Iceman]

This one's 10 to 15"

 

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1238 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

NJZ008>010-012>015-020-026-PAZ060-103-105-106-241100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.260125T0600Z-260126T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T1800Z/
Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern
Monmouth-Mercer-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-Berks-Western Montgomery-
Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of New Brunswick, Long Beach Island,
Perkasie, Reading, Trenton, Pottstown, Somerville, Sandy Hook,
Collegeville, Flemington, Freehold, Jackson, Morrisville,
Doylestown, Morristown, and Chalfont
1238 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow with mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations between 10 and 15 inches and ice accumulations
  around one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Does FRAM include sleet? Philly .31"is that ZR

 

Apparently just ZR accumulation.

[MGorse]

3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Does FRAM include sleet? Philly .31"is that ZR

 

Just ice from freezing rain.

[zenmsav6810]

4 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Even though it's not a strict "Miller B", the whole setup feels like a hybrid one with a low riding up a cold front as the front moves east, and then transferring out to the coast.  Anything that even hints at "Miller B" seems to always be hard to nail down.

I had a comment that this seemed like this storm was a Miller B/Miller C hybrid- but no one seemed to appreciate my comment. It was mocked even.  

[zenmsav6810]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Pretty incredible 10 years ago 202 would be 'the line' and even 15 years ago it would have been i95. Climo keeps pushing that line farther and farther n and w.

I think local development and more impervious surface/blacktop effect has a lot to do with this too which is also a man made climo effect.  

[Hurricane Agnes]

2 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

I had a comment that this seemed like this storm was a Miller B/Miller C hybrid- but no one seemed to appreciate my comment. It was mocked even.  

I saw your comment.  The whole "transfer to the coast" thing always catches my attention.  I had never heard of a "Miller C" but apparently it is a "thing" with La Nina ENSO.

The 13z NBM doesn't look good (ice wise).

 

[The Iceman]

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Pretty incredible 10 years ago 202 would be 'the line' and even 15 years ago it would have been i95. Climo keeps pushing that line farther and farther n and w.

I disagree with this wholeheartedly. Climo has always favored NW areas of this region for as long as I've been alive. Hell the Fall Line definition in MT holly has always been N and W of 95.

[RedSky]

9 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

I had a comment that this seemed like this storm was a Miller B/Miller C hybrid- but no one seemed to appreciate my comment. It was mocked even.  

It was always a B/C to me

Though technically for us it's an over running warm front style thump as the coastal does nothing here and hits New England

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I disagree with this wholeheartedly. Climo has always favored NW areas of this region for as long as I've been alive.

Not so much for ice (sleet/ZR) versus snow though.... Although I remember going on a senior class trip to Tamiment in the Poconos back in '79 in January and there was ZR that weekend with the slopes too slick to ski on and then the temps hit 40, so it was either ice skating in their indoor rink or board games. 

[JTA66]

28 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

How this went from congrats S VA to congrats Boston in 48 hours is incredible.

That's why I wasn't hating on the suppressed looks early in the week. My weenie eyes have seen this movie too many times.

[The Iceman]

I think the 2000's/early 2010's really shifted perspectives to how climo actually is in this region...  Philadelphia itself has only gotten a 10" or more snowstorm 31 times since 1883.  Averages out to like 1 every 5 years. It really isn't a common occurrence, never was. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

14 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I disagree with this wholeheartedly. Climo has always favored NW areas of this region for as long as I've been alive. Hell the Fall Line definition in MT holly has always been N and W of 95.

But 20 years ago this setup would never have pushed the mix line that far N and W as this one. And I understand this is more 700-800 mb layer stuff, but still. Yes, climo always N and W i agree. But when did i78 become the line? This is 4th or 5th time since 2018.

[Kevin Reilly]

23 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Just ice from freezing rain.

Doesn’t power outages start or so around 0.25” liquid of Frz Rain growing more concerned for central Delaware County.