jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: HRRR coming in slightly colder Looked maybe a touch warmer to me. Sleet gets here by 22z roughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Using NYC as a reference point, there will be a couple hours of light snow, followed by a couple hours of moderate snow. Then there will be a big thump between 12 and about 6(ish)pm before any mxing. I think 8-12" is a good forecast. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a little more if it snows at 2-3" an hour for a couple hours. With that said, it also wouldn't completely shock me if it mixed earlier. Usually I would think the NAM would be spot on with the mid-levels. I think it's too aggressive in this case. I kind of like the idea of a thump then nyc turns to sleet for a couple hours then precip shuts off completely or there's some freezing drizzle. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 From EPAWA text alert just now: Sussex: Snow moves in 4-6am Sunday, mixes with sleet evening, ending 8-10pm, snow showers linger to Monday AM Snow/sleet: 12-18 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Forky is usually spot on and has not provided an update from when stated " not worried high is in a perfect spot". So until he changes..... I prefer the high to be situated a bit more SE and the approach of the storm to be more due south than it is in this case but both are close. I’ve mentioned before the center of the high over or slightly east of PWM and the core of the system approaching from along the VA/NC coast due north vs more from the SW is ideal. January 87 2014 and November 2018 are examples of that. It tends to result in more severe lifting and crazy snow rates but can also slow the changeover 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Nam should be out soon let’s see which way it goes since it’s never consistent but people riding it like it’s gospel 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 RGEM is a massive hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 9 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 18z HRRR snowfall from the model itself through 23z. Just a bit north and now pretty much aligned. NAMs are really the outlier here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1/24 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I prefer the high to be situated a bit more SE and the approach of the storm to be more due south than it is in this case but both are close. I’ve mentioned before the center of the high over or slightly east of PWM and the core of the system approaching from along the VA/NC coast due north vs more from the SW is ideal. January 87 2014 and November 2018 are examples of that. It tends to result in more severe lifting and crazy snow rates but can also slow the changeover Also if the flow were faster it could have shunted the storm east before gaining as much latitude. Or pushed a kicker in. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 20 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: HRRR coming in slightly colder It's warmer than 12z, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Also if the flow were faster it could have shunted the storm east before gaining as much latitude. Or pushed a kicker in. Go figure. I mean you can't always get a perfect setup, I'd rather this then it get suppressed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 20 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Valid to a point. There’s also no Atlantic Ocean bordering Arkansas…. They are a lot closer to the GOM, which is a source for us too in this event. Atlantic not that big a deal until the coastal gets going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: NAM doesn't seem to show any snow in Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: It's warmer than 12z, sorry. yeah saw that, started colder then coastal was closer and ended warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Just a bit north and now pretty much aligned. NAMs are really the outlier here. I'm feeling pretty much the same as Rjay. Been thinking 6-12 range most of the day. It's going to rip really good for a bit I think. Should be fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 NAM 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, nycsnow said: RGEM is a massive hit Rgem and cmc Big hits and colder 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: NAM doesn't seem to show any snow in Tennessee. Yea nam way off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 13 minutes ago, Rjay said: Using NYC as a reference point, there will be a couple hours of light snow, followed by a couple hours of moderate snow. Then there will be a big thump between 12 and about 6(ish)pm before any mxing. I think 8-12" is a good forecast. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a little more if it snows at 2-3" an hour for a couple hours. With that said, it also wouldn't completely shock me if it mixed earlier. Usually I would think the NAM would be spot on with the mid-levels. I think it's too aggressive in this case. I kind of like the idea of a thump then nyc turns to sleet for a couple hours then precip shuts off completely or there's some freezing drizzle. Recent runs of the RGEM, HRRR, UKMET, RRFS etc bring sleet into the area as early as 2-3pm. I suspect that's probably correct but I think there will be sleet & snow mixed or oscillating ptypes for several hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Someone post RGEM. It’s a BOMB for all and cold 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 12 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Nam should be out soon let’s see which way it goes since it’s never consistent but people riding it like it’s gospel If it shows a big snow now, I will ride it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, MJO812 said: Rgem and cmc Big hits and colder not running on pivotal. Maps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, eduggs said: Recent runs of the RGEM, HRRR, UKMET, RRFS etc bring sleet into the area as early as 2-3pm. I suspect that's probably correct but I think there will be sleet & snow mixed or oscillating ptypes for several hours. Thoughts on RGEM? Too cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Someone post RGEM. It’s a BOMB for all and cold I don't see it even out but if accurate thats a strong signal the NAM may be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The RGEM is a strong thump with several hours of legitimately heavy snow. But it still brings sleet in late afternoon. The LHV on north stays mostly snow and continues lightly through Mon morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Anybody else notice the cool upslope-downslope couplet on strong easterly flow in CT and the Hudson Valley visible at like 1z Sunday night on the RGEM? I don't see that signature on any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Rgem and cmc Big hits and colder Yeah the RGEM is really intense with the snow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, binbisso said: Yea nam way off Nam might be coming in colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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