1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[brewman22001]

ABSOLUTELY! I don't think anyone should be thinking anything about this storm is set in stone, the tiniest things off by just a little can make a huge difference. Whether that surface temps off by a couple degrees or strength of the storm off by a few MB, or storm tracks 50 or 100 miles off modeled track. All of those things are super minor and might not be modeled well but have huge impacts. This storm for us will really be a nowcast scenario, this storm I am certain will have surprises both good and bad I believe for different areas.

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100% with you!! It has changed so many times and I honestly don’t they’re close to having it nailed down!


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[McHenrySnow]

1 hour ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Someone else mentioned today about the January 2024 storm how the GFS was more accurate and it really was considering how much of a mess the GFS has become. WVLT rode the Euro with their forecast and busted big time. I have a feeling this storm is going to be very similar to the January 2024 storm, except swap the snow with ice.

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The January 2024 GFS hadn't been DOGEd. 

[Matthew70]

Dang.  This is setting up to be bad here.  

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, Tucker1027 said:

I'm not buying what the NAM is selling tbh... it's an outlier on QPF etc 

Was about to say

[Tucker1027]

Just now, jaxjagman said:

Was about to say

Well... then it explodes at hour 54 back west?? 

[Matthew70]

It seems this is growing as a long drawn out multi day winter storm.  I know it was already going to be but I expected it to be outta here by Sunday afternoon.  

[Tucker1027]

The Low is nearly in the gulf this run.. 

[fountainguy97]

Fv3 is FRIGID with widespread zr.

 Nam came in colder. Not worried about its precip. It's horrifically dry in the long range.

[Nash_LSU]

24 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

 But I also remember all those years where I was furious over 33 and rain.


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Probably like you, I have never in my life wished for a 33 degree rain, but here we are. Guess there's a first time for everything. 

[Wurbus]

If it does wind up being 2 waves, I believe the GFS was the first to have that solution so kudos to it for that part.

[Tucker1027]

[Carvers Gap]

38 minutes ago, Reb said:

How is it compared to the 18z GFS?

Both 0z ICON and NAM are colder than their previous run through roughly 27....2-5 degrees depending on local.

[Matthew70]

[Carvers Gap]

27 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Fv3 is FRIGID with widespread zr.

 Nam came in colder. Not worried about its precip. It's horrifically dry in the long range.

Kind of impressive to see how much colder the ICON is through 38....3-5 degrees over E TN.  Fits the trend of models correcting colder as the event gets closer.  

[Carvers Gap]

Anyone know when we can start to see if reports on the ground match what modeling has....might helps us to know which model is initializing better and is more accurate?

[WintryMixmaster]

HRW WRF-ARW look to have light snow over Knox County from hours 41-44, but only registers as 0.1 inch on pivotal's 10:1 total snowfall map. I guess maybe that's sleet being interpreted as snow?

[Stovepipe]

It looks to me like the 0z NAM quickly puts down .85 inches of freezing rain on TYS before switching to rain Saturday night and climbing to 48 degrees.  Total of about 2.5 inches of QPF.

[jaxjagman]

One thing could happen if you get the low where the NAM is this will try

4 minutes ago, WintryMixmaster said:

HRW WRF-ARW look to have light snow over Knox County from hours 41-44, but only registers as 0.1 inch on pivotal's 10:1 total snowfall map. I guess maybe that's sleet being interpreted as snow?

Damn,look how fast that is also..lol

[TellicoWx]

Is there a freezing rain map for ICON? Looking at when temps finally get above freezing for valley here, it doubled QPF vs 18z....hard to tell. Definitely a degree or 2 colder that run.

[Jed33]

The 0z RGEM looks a little further south/ colder as well compared to 18z.

[Matthew70]

Boyd

01z H-triple-R at midnight Saturday night as depicted in images. Forecast OHX sounding may have  enough depth to the lower  cold layer to turn liquid to ice pellets before reaching the surface, but freezing rain is looking likely Saturday night here in Nashville and in general Middle Tennesse. Keep in mind that freezing rain is a 1:1 ratio. 1 inch of liquid rain equals 1 inch of ice (glaze). To have a system of this magnitude to come through Middle Tennessee and not produce 1 to 2 inches of liquid QPF would be unusual. I can see latent heat becoming a big player in this event. When water freezes, it gives up heat energy to the environment.
Latent heat. #TNwx #KYwx #ALwx

[Tucker1027]

GFS is running 

[Matthew70]

Does the GFS finally break up with us all or does it still love us all. 

[chasescott66]

5 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Does the GFS finally break up with us all or does it still love us all. 

Sensing heartbreak

[housemtnTN]

This is very suspenseful.

[housemtnTN]

Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like it splits sleet/snow line in half over knox co. at hour 48.

[Stovepipe]

0z GFS is great if you prefer more snow/sleet and less ice in TN.

[John1122]

42 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Anyone know when we can start to see if reports on the ground match what modeling has....might helps us to know which model is initializing better and is more accurate?

I will just say temperature wise, the NAM had me at 33 at 10pm, I was 29. The 3k NAM has me at 33 at 11pm, but I'm currently 28. The 02 HRRR says I should be 31 at 11pm. 

[jaxjagman]

That was a good run all things considering

[Tucker1027]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

I will just say temperature wise, the NAM had me at 33 at 10pm, I was 29. The 3k NAM has me at 33 at 11pm, but I'm currently 28. The 02 HRRR says I should be 31 at 11pm. 

ICON did best with today's high temps. Not sure if that means anything