1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Kasper]

Now back to the models

[*Flash*]

Good news for east TN I suppose...

https://x.com/frankiemacd/status/2013760806991585329?s=46&t=jJibs_QYWrPscWIaTl9hgw

 

[Stovepipe]

3 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Good news for east TN I suppose...

https://x.com/frankiemacd/status/2013760806991585329?s=46&t=jJibs_QYWrPscWIaTl9hgw

 

OMG Frankie!  I haven't heard from him in years, glad he's still at it!  To hear him do Tennessee... nearly brings a tear to my eye.

[Wurbus]

6 minutes ago, CDUB_VOL said:

First time posting but been following for years. I have one question what time will the 0Z GFS roll out?

Welcome to the board! GFS usually starts around 10:30

[Reb]

NAM slight improvements at 42 with the Baja and in Canada

[Brocksterdanza]

What’s best free site for models? Still tropical tidbits?


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[Reb]

Just now, Brocksterdanza said:

What’s best free site for models? Still tropical tidbits?


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Yes and pivotal to my knowledge 

[Brocksterdanza]

Thanks!


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[Tucker1027]

This feels like a good step... 

 

18z 

0z 

 

 

 

 

[Reb]

1 minute ago, Tucker1027 said:

This feels like a good step... 

 

18z 

0z 

 

 

 

 

I think we are cooked on the first wave. ZR. I’m looking for that Baja to hang back enough, then eject into a backside sliding low

[Carvers Gap]

Out to 63....it hasn't phased...the Baja is almost cutoff and just drifting.

[Carvers Gap]

Should be a later phase......I have no idea how that second wave is gonna look.

[Carvers Gap]

12z NAM....Later phase creates a flatter second wave...good trend.  In general, the first wave was flatter as well.  Precip shield w/ the first wave was about 6 counties south....barely got to the Ohio River Valley.  With the second wave phasing later, that opens the window for the second slp to come in flatter.  It would have been fun to see the rest of that run......out to say 150.

[jaxjagman]

https://x.com/JeremyDeHartWX

[Carvers Gap]

Egads...the ZR totals on the 0z NAM.  

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

https://x.com/JeremyDeHartWX

Great information.  I will post the actual tweet for you.  Credit to Jax for the find.

 

 

[Scottie16]

Oh!


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[Tucker1027]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Egads...the ZR totals on the 0z NAM.  

yeah.... Chattanooga at .38 and Knoxville at .73 already in that run 

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z NAM at range...

 

[Maggie Valley Steve]

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Great information.  I will post the actual tweet for you.  Credit to Jax for the find.

 

 

Glad you folks are monitoring my buddy Jeremy. He is a great Meteorologist and a great guy that updates Twitter regularly when the 53rd is active not only for Hurricanes!

[Tucker1027]

Interesting... the new recon data was not in the 0z NAM will be in the GFS and EURO

[WishingForWarmWeather]

10 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Oh!


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What model is this?

[Brocksterdanza]

What model is this?

Nam


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[jaxjagman]

Jeremy DeHart

 

@JeremyDeHartWX

 

 

Would anticipate that Thursday night's 00Z runs will be important with missions planned tomorrow for both the Baja low and the thermo profiles in the Gulf

[WishingForWarmWeather]

2 minutes ago, Brocksterdanza said:

Nam


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Oh…interesting. Thank you! Must do strange things after this (following other models I suppose) if it’s also dropping all that freezing rain/sleet as well

[Tucker1027]

I can’t remember…

Is NAM usually warm or lacking precip ? I know it’s one of them


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[Vol4Life]

Just now, Tucker1027 said:

I can’t remember…

Is NAM usually warm or lacking precip ? I know it’s one of them


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It’s usually amped and warm

[Tucker1027]

ICON…

This screams trapped cold air in the valley which our in-house met said today.

The icon also handled today’s system the best 2-3 days out. (I know that doesn’t mean much m)


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[Carvers Gap]

16 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

Glad you folks are monitoring my buddy Jeremy. He is a great Meteorologist and a great guy that updates Twitter regularly when the 53rd is active not only for Hurricanes!

Great source!  We appreciate the share!

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

ICON…

This screams trapped cold air in the valley which our in-house met said today.

The icon also handled today’s system the best 2-3 days out. (I know that doesn’t mean much m)


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Snow axis was a tick south....came close to getting that slp east of the Apps.