1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[fountainguy97]

1 minute ago, GBOVolz said:

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Unfortunately  that's just simply not true. the NBM has jumped way north over the last 3 runs.

[fountainguy97]

Just now, fountainguy97 said:

Unfortunately  that's just simply not true. the NBM has jumped way north over the last 3 runs.

And the way I understand it it is basically one run behind Op models.

[tnweathernut]

One of the things I always looked at when modeling became a thing was Chicago.  If the snow shield was shown making it to Chicago our area was cooked.  I know it's overly simplistic, but that's where we are.  

[Carvers Gap]

This could easily be just ebb and low the model...but the onset for the GEM has more snow north of I-40.  The GEM is for sure south by a tick until it cuts after hour 87.  

[GBOVolz]

And the way I understand it it is basically one run behind Op models.

I just realized his tweet was 2 hours ago before the last run. My bad


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[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said:

Unfortunately  that's just simply not true. the NBM has jumped way north over the last 3 runs.

12z was relatively unchanged.  Looks like 13z acknowledges the major shift in modeling.

[nrgjeff]

NAM cuts and blasts the warm nose. Anyone surprised? Punt that still 60-84 hour fcst. Euro seems too amped too. GFS is too optimistic for snow lovers though. I am afraid the middle ground will verify. In this case the middle ground is bad because it's lots of ice.

Personally, I've experienced only two ice storms as bad as what's forecast. One was right in the middle of it 1984. Other was forecasting 2004. A once in 20-year event is possible. Guess what else moved north.

Selfish solution for Chattanooga: Punt snow wishes and reel in all rain. However that would be a devastating ice storm for just about all the rest of this Region. 

[Wurbus]

The warm nose on the CMC is kind of funny to look at 108. It extends up to Pennsylvania.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEM is also a two wave event.  It is a tick flatter with the first wave, and then similar w/ the second w/ the cutter.  True over running event as well.

[tnweathernut]

Canadian is an Ohio River snow max.  It's in the mid teens with sleet at 3PM Saturday north of Nashville.

[*Flash*]

Yeah, I concur with the mean sentiment that these trends aren't ideal. I'm north of 40 but by 15 minutes only. My gut says prepare for near equal amounts of snow and sleet which should be more than enough to cause major disruptions. Not sure how much western middle will see in terms of freezing rain. I imagine we'll score the trifecta. So yeah...no 'top 10' historic snowstorm for BNA but maybe 'top 10' for total frozen QPF. Still a monster storm. Just not with the breakdown we were initially hoping for. 

[Carvers Gap]

12z GEM and GFS maps.  

 

[Weatheriscool]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z GEM and GFS maps.  

 

Cant imagine much worse set up, ice on top of a snow pack 

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

Cant imagine much worse set up, ice on top of a snow pack 

Not sure there will be a ton of snowpack.  It will depend on that first wave.  If the first wave can deliver, many of us will see some snow before the ice.  But for now(and I mean this exact moment at 11:44AM on Jan21), ice is the story IMHO.  When you first watch the GEM, it looks remarkably similar to the GFS.  The second wave is where they differ.  As Jeff noted, reality is probable somewhere in the middle between the GEM and GFS.  

[GBOVolz]

Cant imagine much worse set up, ice on top of a snow pack 

And likely snow on the back side on top of ice


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[nrgjeff]

Some of y'all on I-40 could get bailed out by sleet vs several hours of freezing rain. We'll see.
Problem farther south is that the warm nose is strong and thick; so, that's freezing rain.

 

[Weatheriscool]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Not sure there will be a ton of snowpack.  It will depend on that first wave.  If the first wave can deliver, many of us will see some snow before the ice.  But for now(and I mean this exact moment at 11:44AM on Jan21), ice is the story IMHO.  When you first watch the GEM, it looks remarkably similar to the GFS.  The second wave is where they differ.  As Jeff noted, reality is probable somewhere in the middle between the GEM and GFS.  

Just an absolute mess anyway you slice it really going to be an inconvenience for most of next week 

 

[Wurbus]

Ukie cuts and looks a lot like the CMC.....even with the warm nose all the way to Pennsylvania.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z Ukie:

[Carvers Gap]

@Daniel Boone....take a look at the GFS and you can see the consequences of a stronger system this weekend.  Give me some of that d10 GFS.

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

12z Ukie:

Nothing quite like thunderstorms falling into temps which are below freezing over North Carolina.

[Weatheriscool]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Daniel Boone....take a look at the GFS and you can see the consequences of a stronger system this weekend.  Give me some of that d10 GFS.

Looks like the pattern continues on the GFS

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z UKMET is two waves as well. First wave is winter.  Second wave is a cutter.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Weatheriscool said:

Looks like the pattern continues on the GFS

Yeah, I'll jump over in the long term thread in a bit to discuss.  I have to go get my run in!

[nrgjeff]

Ukie convection. More of that please! We just need a severe outlook to go with everything. 

I kid of course. If the Euro starts doing things like that this will get more complicated. My guess is models are trying to figure out the two waves. Stay the course, which is unfortunately icy awful.

[fountainguy97]

2 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Ukie convection. More of that please! We just need a severe outlook to go with everything. 

I kid of course. If the Euro starts doing things like that this will get more complicated. My guess is models are trying to figure out the two waves. Stay the course, which is unfortunately icy awful.

yeah these 12z runs are wonky. A ton of variables with the NS energy. We are getting some weird evolutions because of that. 

[GBOVolz]

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[Coach B]

7 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

yeah these 12z runs are wonky. A ton of variables with the NS energy. We are getting some weird evolutions because of that. 

The UKIE has rain all the way to the southwest corner of Pennsylvania Sunday night. 

[WishingForWarmWeather]

Can anyone help me understand - I really use this forum to follow along with everything but most of yall are in different places than me. 
 

I’m in Clarksville, so pretty much right on the KY border, north of Nashville. 
 

Is it looking like sleet/freezing rain for me as well, or I’m still in snow currently?

[tnweathernut]

The one thing that I find absolutely amazing.  All the (supposed) modeling improvements seen in the recent past, combined with AI being utilized in its infancy............... and there were models that nailed the blizzard of 1993 from 5 days out.  That was 33 years ago!