1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

maybe I'm looking at it wrong, but it looks to me like the HP was a little stronger, (if a little north) at 0z:

[Carvers Gap]

That loss of hp was seen across several models at 0z...and now poof...it is back on many.  Trying to dig through this and see what the trend might be and what caused the iteration overnight.

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

maybe I'm looking at it wrong, but it looks to me like the HP was a little stronger, (if a little north) at 0z:

Have to go further into the run.

[Tucker1027]

That loss of hp was seen across several models at 0z...and now poof...it is back on many.  Trying to dig through this and see what the trend might be and what caused the iteration overnight.

The HP coming back is good for us correct?


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[GBOVolz]

I 100% could be wrong, but I thought someone in NWS told it which ones to favor in its average? 

I was about to ask if the blend had the ability to adjust its input on the fly based on climo and analogs.


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[Carvers Gap]

6z left.  0z right.  11mb difference(increase) in hp over Montana.  Notice the system at 6z doesn't get as far north on this frame.  It eventually gets there, but those are pretty big changes.  HUGE difference between a 1028hp and 1039.

[Scottie16]

6z left.  0z right.  11mb difference(increase) in hp over Montana.  Notice the system at 6z doesn't get as far north on this frame.  It eventually gets there, but those are pretty big changes.  HUGE difference between a 1028hp and 1039.

You’d think it would prefer to head on up the coast. I also think it’s worth nothing Carver that the Euro is probably overestimating the strength of the Baja low as well.


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[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

You’d think it would prefer to head on up the coast. I also think it’s worth nothing Carver that the Euro is probably overestimating the strength of the Baja low as well.


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I think with that Euro setup as is...it is going to try to split those two highs and head for the Lakes.  What I can't know for sure is if the Euro is trending back stronger w/ the hp to the Northwest.  The differences, even after that slide, grow pretty massively.  The GFS is just weaker (but trending stronger) w/ the STJ pulse.  I would really, really like to know which models got the bulk of the hurricane date overnight, and if one model didn't get it.  To me the hp differences in the Plains look like a data error or absence of it...I just don't know which model is handling that hp over the Plains correctly.  That feature is drastically affecting the overall synoptics of the storm.

[Met1985]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think with that Euro setup as is...it is going to try to split those two highs and head for the Lakes.  What I can't know for sure is if the Euro is trending back stronger w/ the hp to the Northwest.  The differences, even after that slide, grow pretty massively.  The GFS is just weaker (but trending stronger) w/ the STJ pulse.  I would really, really like to know which models got the bulk of the hurricane date overnight, and if one model didn't get it.  To me the hp differences in the Plains look like a data error or absence of it...I just don't know which model is handling that hp over the Plains correctly.  That feature is drastically affecting the overall synoptics of the storm.

Good morning Carver. Steve explains when the data will be ingested into the models in our mountains thread if you want to look in on it. 

[Knoxtron]

FWIW, EUro Ensemble member lows seem to be ticking back south on the 06Z to my untrained eye. Very slight change but first buck of the northern trend...?

 

[Carvers Gap]

Below is a comparison of the 6z GFS(left) and 6z Euro(right). The differences over the Plains are noticeable.  The Plains hp on the GFS is stronger and more to the Northwest.  The Euro is digging the hp behind the storm - amps the slp in front.  The hp in New England is more expansive on the GFS and blocks the slp from coming north...supresses the slp in the mid-South.

Here are two more things I am looking at.  Let's compare trends within the same model.  If the GFS is going to be insistent on the Montana high being strong, is it actually maintaining its solution from run-to-run?  6z GFS(left) and 0z GFS (right).  The GFS weakens the Montana hp(for lack of a better term), but only slightly and the portion of the hp is pretty much the same.  The more that hp weakens, the more room is available for the slp to slip north. We need a banana high which is continuous.  The New England high really stays about the same in terms of strength and position.

IMPORTANT: Now, this might sound like splitting hairs, because it is.  But the placement and strength of the two areas of hp is affecting synoptics big time.  In turn, that is affecting p-types.  I tend to lean towards the Euro as it is just a better model at this range.  But...the 6z RFS surface pressure(not in this post) looks like the 6z GFS, and that gives me pause.  The Euro having pretty significant differences w/ high strength and position(from 0z to 6z) in the Plains also gives me pause.  The fact the 6z Euro brought back a stronger Montana hp...cannot be ignored, but it might not matter if the STJ pulse stays strong.

[Carvers Gap]

@Maggie Valley Steveposted this in the SE Mountains Thread which @Met1985mentioned.  Great disco in that thread BTW.  Sounds to me like they were just moving planes around last night.   Today and tomorrow, those guys get down to business. 

So I got some clarity from Jeremy DeHart on Twitter. Jeremy is an AF Reserve Meteorologist for the Hurricane Hunter missions for many years now. He stated that last night mission was a reposition flight back to Keesler. The mission today will sample the Baja low with additional missions sampling the Gulf tomorrow.

[Knoxtron]

Completely random but if you are bored ask Google Gemini to describe specific model runs and trends... Its kind of insane how much its improved recently. Absolutely not suggesting it is correct or should be relied on, more that is amazing that is can view model runs and discuss specifics on low placements. 

 

I set Gemini to give me an alert as soon as the 12z Runs are complete with an update on changes to the southern low placement, curious if its accurate and how quickly it is able to pull the information (or even where it is getting the info). 

[fountainguy97]

32 minutes ago, Knoxtron said:

FWIW, EUro Ensemble member lows seem to be ticking back south on the 06Z to my untrained eye. Very slight change but first buck of the northern trend...?

 

we do often see models strengthen the hP in the short term. But it's a losing battle if we have a triple phase I fear.  The balancing act we need is incredibly thin. We need a strong enough HP and a weak enough Baja interaction to keep things flat and suppressed. But not too flat and also not too strong.

Cliomo and history though would tell me to expect a strengthening of the HP and CAD in the short term but the question remains does that really matter if we can't avoid the phase of doom out west?

 

The UK and EURO for sure stopped the trend at 06z but we need a reversal from them starting asap

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

we do often see models strengthen the hP in the short term. But it's a losing battle if we have a triple phase I fear.  The balancing act we need is incredibly thin. We need a strong enough HP and a weak enough Baja interaction to keep things flat and suppressed. But not too flat and also not too strong.

Cliomo and history though would tell me to expect a strengthening of the HP and CAD in the short term but the question remains does that really matter if we can't avoid the phase of doom out west?

 

The UK and EURO for sure stopped the trend at 06z but we need a reversal from them starting asap

For sure on the phase.  And I agree.  If it phases....the hp strength is minimal in terms of importance.  However, how they phase will be impacted greatly by how much that hp presses.  A stronger hp will suppress that system.  Check out Steve's comments in the SE mountain thread.  He does a better job of explaining it.  I lean Euro, because it generally is a better model....and the gfs has been bad since Thanksgiving.  I don't think hurricane hunter data went in last night.  It looks like some data will be added today and tomorrow.  We may see a big jump (could be good...could be bad)once that data is inputed.

[Carvers Gap]

21 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

we do often see models strengthen the hP in the short term. But it's a losing battle if we have a triple phase I fear.  The balancing act we need is incredibly thin. We need a strong enough HP and a weak enough Baja interaction to keep things flat and suppressed. But not too flat and also not too strong.

Cliomo and history though would tell me to expect a strengthening of the HP and CAD in the short term but the question remains does that really matter if we can't avoid the phase of doom out west?

 

The UK and EURO for sure stopped the trend at 06z but we need a reversal from them starting asap

I should add that I would be shocked w/ a reversal.  Just too many models showing the trend towards a warmer solution.  However, with the Euro changing hp strength in the Plains...that could greatly affect where the phased system tracks.  If the hp dives behind the system, it cuts.  If it stays over the top...it might force the bulk of the energy east of the Apps w/ only a shadow pressing west.  For E TN...this looks like snow to sleet to ice to rain.  For now(like right this minute), it looks like 8-12 hours of frozen precip at TRI.  Downslope effects are showing up on some models for sure in the Foothills - so, usual caveats apply.

When I see big changes on modeling(MT hp on the 6z Euro), that usually tells me that things are not worked out.  The GFS consistency gives me some weak(very weak) hope, and the 6z GEFS snow axis actually shifted south at 6z.  It is possible the Euro is too amped....but the AIFS supports the Euro as does the GEM and GEM-para.  

Let's see what this hurricane hunter data reveals. I think the big error(and this error has been present on modeling all winter long) is trying to hold that Baja low in place too long or string it out.  More often than not, that low has been poorly modeled up until about 3-4 days before reality.  We have also seen energy transfer from the Rockies back to San Francisco on modeling(not this particular setup to clarify) - didn't happen.  The Southwest has been a big problem for modeling this winters.  Oddly, that Baja bias has been across modeling.  One thing I will add...any time a Baja low is involved, the Euro struggles...until it doesn't. Then, it locks in.

[GBOVolz]

Not saying this will have anything at all to do with this storm, but the coastal system last week trended north quite a bit by the euro at about this range and then it ended up going back to basically where it started at. I actually think there were several mods that trended north and then came back.


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[Scottie16]

NAM @ 39hrs.


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[Carvers Gap]

Just now, GBOVolz said:

Not saying this will have anything at all to do with this storm, but the coastal system last week trended north quite a bit by the euro at about this range and then it ended up going back to basically where it started at. I actually think there were several mods that trended north and then came back.


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Yes.  It has done that with many systems this winter.  I don't know if there is a window where data is missing(systems going through blind spots like the Arctic Circle or eastern Pac) or if that is just a bias.  OTH, the GFS has had big time problems w/ Baja energy this winter.  At one point, it tried to tap a Pacific tropical system and funnel that moisture into E TN.  But with trends across several models...sure looks like a warmer system(compared to yesterday's runs) is likely.  

[Wurbus]

If it plays out with more ice/sleet, I think the Canadian will have modeled it best. It has been honking heavy mixed precip longer than any other models.

[Scottie16]

NAM @ 54 hrs


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[Scottie16]

NAM @ 54 hrs


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[GBOVolz]

Yes.  It has done that with many systems this winter.  I don't know if there is a window where data is missing(systems going through blind spots like the Arctic Circle or eastern Pac) or if that is just a bias.  OTH, the GFS has had big time problems w/ Baja energy this winter.  At one point, it tried to tap a Pacific tropical system and funnel that moisture into E TN.  But with trends across several models...sure looks like a warmer system(compared to yesterday's runs) is likely.  

12z it’s going to be huge. If there was in fact, some missing data at 0Z and we saw a bit of a reversal of 6Z because the data was back. We should know in a couple hours if that was legit. Even a baby step at 12z would make me feel better.


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[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

12z it’s going to be huge. If there was in fact, some missing data at 0Z and we saw a bit of a reversal of 6Z because the data was back. We should know in a couple hours if that was legit. Even a baby step at 12z would make me feel better.


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More likely than not...the GFS is probably mishandling the timing of the Baja low.  However, none of the other models have been stellar with that area either.  With one big camp calling for a lot of energy to go west of the Apps....tough for me to go against that camp.  Probably have an increasingly diminishing windrow through Weds for this to adjust some.  I really doubt it goes back to big snow, but hope I am wrong.   The GFS standing alone(maybe some RFS and AIGFS support) rarely works out for me.  I do wonder if the Euro is too amped as you noted above w/ some of its recent trends with other systems.  

[Mrwolf1972]

Nam 12z looks slower then the 6z coming in am I seeing things and south

[tnweathernut]

Where we were just 24-36 hours seems like an eternity.  There was confidence in what we were looking at because baby step moves kept us in the game.  Then came the runs that took a man size step away.  Not sure there's enough time for small steps to do anything but increase ZR amounts for parts of east TN.   At 500, the phase just kills our chances for a big snow by pulling the entire structure northwest.  It doesn't take middle and west TN out of the sweepstakes just yet, but there's a reason I-40 has been a battle area over the last 40 years in that neck of the woods.  It also doesn't yet kill our chances in east TN for a historic ice event.  As an insurance guy I'll just say if it happens that way you probably won't see much of me for a while.

It's not unbelievable for this to have gone this direction.  It's happened many times in the past.   What is unbelievable to me is the Canadian at range has a chance to score the victory here.  At the end of the day the weather will do what it wants though and there's nothing we can do about it. At the very least I'll have saved some of the greatest accumulation maps of my life for our area and. Still hopeful we see this move back to the south.  It's not out of the range of possibilities on the ensembles and we can always hope the OP's are overamping things.

On to 12z.....

[Scottie16]

NAM @ 69


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[Mrwolf1972]

Nam is not our friend this run north and amped

[Wurbus]

NAM doesn't even have precip in East TN until Sat evening. That's the latest I've seen so far. It's also the NAM so there is that....

[Mrwolf1972]

I'll ignore Nam until Friday to far out right now I want to see the other 12z and then the 18 after the flight info