1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[AMZ8990]

[Reb]

1 minute ago, GBOVolz said:

This feels like January 2024 all over again except totals may be much higher this time


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I hope not...Seymour got hoodwinked with ice. 2 miles from my house had 10"+ while it was raining at home.

But, yes...yes it does.

[housemtnTN]

1 minute ago, GBOVolz said:

This feels like January 2024 all over again except totals may be much higher this time


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That was a fun one and I remember the local weather stations were only calling for maybe 3-5 inches lol.

[AMZ8990]

1 minute ago, AMZ8990 said:

[Matthew70]

4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

 

No...lol

As someone said yesterday .  They are down in the basement playing ping pong.  They will wait till it’s over then say yep we called for this amount of snow.  Can’t blame them.  Been burned way too many times.  

I have the security guards watching for Lucy to make sure she does not swipe the football away. 

[GBOVolz]

That was a fun one and I remember the local weather stations were only calling for maybe 3-5 inches lol.

Yeah, I ended up with between nine and 10 inches


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[Matthew70]

4 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Keep that away from the Boro please.

[Scottie16]

NAM enters the chat.


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[Scottie16]

This feels like January 2024 all over again except totals may be much higher this time


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Yes! I said that a few days ago!


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[Matthew70]

Just now, Scottie16 said:

NAM enters the chat.


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Is this the time we actually want to be NAM’D

[Hurricaneguy]

Just now, Scottie16 said:

Yes! I said that a few days ago!


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I do not speak the name of that system anymore. Greeneville got nothing but slush and sleet when the rest of the county got 5-7''

[AMZ8990]

National Weather Service Nashville TN
1137 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1134 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

- High confidence in winter weather with travel impacts this
  weekend. Stay tuned for the latest.

- Cold temperatures are expected to remain through early next week
  which will prolong impacts.

- Scattered showers expected tomorrow/tomorrow night with
  precipitation remaining as rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1053 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

After a frigid start to the day, temperatures are climbing through
the 20s this morning. High pressure is centered over the area but it
will slowly move east this afternoon which will allow weak southerly
flow to start. With that, temperatures will not be as cold tonight,
but still expect lows in the 20s. A weak trough and associated
surface low will approach on Wednesday dragging a weak surface
front. Ahead of the front, the southerly winds will increase along
with moisture. Models are showing medium to high chances of
scattered showers starting Wednesday morning. The shower chances
will linger into Wednesday night along the plateau. It looks like
the precipitation will remain all liquid with this system.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1053 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Behind Wednesday`s system, temperatures will remain around normal
for this time of year. Surface high pressure will slide eastward
from the central plains and quickly move across the Ohio River
Valley. Behind that, a reinforcing cold front will move into the
area on Friday. This will set the stage for this weekend`s system.

An upper level trough will be situated off the southern coast of
California on Friday. Ahead of the trough, southwesterly flow will
send anomalously high moisture through the southern plains and
into the southeast. This will override the cold air that settles
into our area on Friday. In addition, some of that energy is
expected to eject out of the Baja region eastward on Saturday.
There are questions regarding how much energy is ejected and if it
phases with upper level energy coming out of Canada. Regardless,
precipitation is likely to start as snow either Friday night or
Saturday morning. The question is what happens after that. The
model solutions that eject more energy out of the Baja develop a
stronger inverted surface trough over the southeast and possibly
reaching into our area. This would do two things. First, it would
enhance QPF amounts and second, it would draw warm air northward
which would bring ice and sleet into the picture. Right now, sleet
and freezing rain chances are highest closer to the
Tennessee/Alabama border but there is still a lot of variation in
model solutions.

So what are the key messages regarding this weekend? Bottom line...
we have high confidence in winter weather with impacts this weekend.
Go ahead and make preparations and don`t plan on traveling if you
don`t need to. It is not a simple setup that gives us high
confidence in snow or ice amounts. Yes, there are individual models
that say a large portion of the area will receive a foot of snow.
BUT, on the flip side, there are models that bring the warm air
well into Middle Tennessee which would produce more freezing rain
or sleet which would crush the hearts of snow lovers, but still
produce significant impacts. Any precipitation that falls will
likely stick around as the cold air will be entrenched into at
least early next week. We`ll continue to monitor the forecast
trends in the models, so stay tuned as there is still some time to
figure this out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue for the taf period. The
low level jet will increase after 06z introducing a window for low
level wind shear at BNA/CKV/MQY. Surface winds will increase mid
to late Wednesday morning allowing for the LLWS to subside.
Light scattered showers could impact the terminals starting from
west to east Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      38  27  49  34 /   0   0  70  40
Clarksville    38  26  45  30 /   0  10  70  10
Crossville     33  21  47  34 /   0   0  50  60
Columbia       40  25  49  35 /   0   0  70  40
Cookeville     33  23  49  35 /   0   0  60  60
Jamestown      31  21  48  33 /   0   0  50  50
Lawrenceburg   39  25  50  37 /   0   0  70  50
Murfreesboro   38  23  50  36 /   0   0  60  50
Waverly        38  27  44  31 /   0   0  70  20

&&

[Matthew70]

3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Could be thunder snow.  
13.8” wow.  JAX does this graph factor in ratio or standard 10:1?

[John1122]

I had to laugh at them putting Pinecrest on the Campbell County map. It's about 30 houses on a peninsula leading to the lake on the south end of the County. 

 

 

[Weatheriscool]

6 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Could be thunder snow.  
13.8” wow.  JAX does this graph factor in ratio or standard 10:1?

Their snow totals dont seem to match up for my area with other forecasts I have seen 

[IndTenn]

For the Friday "forerunner" system, the 18z NAM moves the snow about 150 miles west-southwest, and increases the totals a bit over 12z.  Maybe one should prep for the big one Thursday instead of Friday?

[Matthew70]

3 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

Their snow totals dont seem to match up for my area with other forecasts I have seen 

Totals are going to be all over the place.  Most if smart will be very conservative. 

[jaxjagman]

10 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Could be thunder snow.  
13.8” wow.  JAX does this graph factor in ratio or standard 10:1?

Didnt think you could read it,it was so small,that was IDSS,just find where you are at then right click

 

https://www.weather.gov/forecastpoints?lat=36.1756&lon=-86.7781&clat=36.154&clon=-86.711&zoom=12&basemap=stamenterrain&bbox=[-19719439.353,1706090.691,-1372338.093,10673494.116]&layers=RangeRings|USStates|USCounties|ForecastDot|Domain|#

[TellicoWx]

27 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

NAM enters the chat.


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First Namming for us of the event (Fri morning) lol...good ol NAM

[jaxjagman]

4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Didnt think you could read it,it was so small,that was IDSS,just find where you are at then right click

 

https://www.weather.gov/forecastpoints?lat=36.1756&lon=-86.7781&clat=36.154&clon=-86.711&zoom=12&basemap=stamenterrain&bbox=[-19719439.353,1706090.691,-1372338.093,10673494.116]&layers=RangeRings|USStates|USCounties|ForecastDot|Domain|#

Left clickOHX doesnt look as cold,but its 10-15:1 ratios by what they say

[Scottie16]

First Namming for us of the event (Fri morning) lol...good ol NAM

Would be beneficial to have snow pack imo even if light.


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[TellicoWx]

Icon with a small step south at 18z..overrunning precipitation shield was better as well

[TellicoWx]

Correction..way better 18z as far as less ice

[Vol4Life]

2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Correction..way better 18z as far as less ice

I just noticed that as well.  Haven’t looked at the soundings, but just looking at the surface maps it looked better

[TellicoWx]

18z ICON

[Scottie16]

Icon trying to go Miller B?


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[Reb]

interesting dynamics on the Icon. WAA is farther north but colder air than 12z just north of it. TYS is 2 degrees colder at 102

[Vol4Life]

3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

18z ICON

Storm is still going at this point too

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

That was an I-40 special. Knoxville also had around 1 inch of ice from it. It was snow and sleet here, we had about 6 or 7 inches combined. Southern Kentucky has 12+ inches of snow. 

15 to 20 inches of Snow here in Lee County from that one. 

[Mrwolf1972]

Would be OK with what icon is saying better then the 12z maps