January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[Coach McGuirk]

4 minutes ago, SouthWake33 said:

I’d take 1/4 of that and be happy.


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Same, a lot of that is sleet and zr though. 

[Silver Meteor]

42 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I don't think the GFS has had as many wild swings as the Euro has the last two days. 

Right, right ... the GFS has done such a great job. Let me remind you of yesterday's 12Z run: 

 

[SouthWake33]

Same, a lot of that is sleet and zr though. 

Yeh and I’d still be fine with that.


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[Brick Tamland]

Just now, Silver Meteor said:

Right, right ... the GFS has done such a great job. Let me remind you of yesterday's 12Z run: 

 

And today's runs are still not as extreme of a difference as the Euro went from yesterday morning to this morning. 

[Thrasher Fan]

ULL further west on 0z NAM. Could be good here...

[Buddy1987]

As if this isn’t already complex and confusing enough.. if the NAM projection came to fruition and the storm slowed way down and then phased later on would that technically be better for the area because the cold air may become entrenched even more?

[Snowncanes]

Worlds different through H51. No phase whatsoever yet

[franklin NCwx]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

As if this isn’t already complex and confusing enough.. if the NAM projection came to fruition and the storm slowed way down and then phased later on would that technically be better for the area because the cold air may become entrenched even more?

If the Baja wave slows the northern stream can run out ahead and flatten the flow in the east. Lower heights and more snow/sleet

[lilj4425]

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

As if this isn’t already complex and confusing enough.. if the NAM projection came to fruition and the storm slowed way down and then phased later on would that technically be better for the area because the cold air may become entrenched even more?

I gave up trying to figure out what’s happening.  

[franklin NCwx]

Just now, franklin NCwx said:

If the Baja wave slows the northern stream can run out ahead and flatten the flow in the east. Lower heights and more snow/sleet

It can also lead to a partial phase or a miss

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

I gave up trying to figure out what’s happening. 

Hahahaha I LOVE this post. To see some of the seasoned guys in the MA crew be conflicted let’s you know how minute of a detail can be an otherworldly difference. 

[Thrasher Fan]

10 minutes ago, Thrasher Fan said:

ULL further west on 0z NAM. Could be good here...

Fake news I'm afraid. The heights are not great.

[Silver Meteor]

11 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

As if this isn’t already complex and confusing enough.. if the NAM projection came to fruition and the storm slowed way down and then phased later on would that technically be better for the area because the cold air may become entrenched even more?

It would make the ice storm WORSE. I want this whole mess to move north and get the heck out of here. If it comes back south the ice QPF would increase! 

[WiseWeather]

Someone shut this thread down… lets take a different approach and just nowcast this whole event. If the models dont have a clue whats going on how is anyone else supposed to figure it out?


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[Brick Tamland]

[Buddy1987]

Would be really nice to know if the NAM is acting its crazy old self or if it actually did have the data placed in for 0z.

[Thrasher Fan]

A note for tonight's disco...

https://x.com/JeremyDeHartWX/status/2014163601712410877?s=20

[Brick Tamland]

[Brick Tamland]

[Buddy1987]

Precip seems to have “smoothed” out from 18z. Mix line at VA/NC border. Sleet breaking out down the spine of the apps into NE GA.

[Thrasher Fan]

long range NAM always finding the good drugs. 

[AGardiner87]

Hardly any precip in SC through 84! 

[Snow dog]

1 minute ago, AGardiner87 said:

Hardly any precip in SC through 84! 

At this point I’m rooting for that!

[Buddy1987]

End of the run NAM trying to get LP going around Wilmington/Hatteras. Need that to lock in the backside cold air and rid of the torch going on upstairs. 

[Silver Meteor]

11 minutes ago, Thrasher Fan said:

A note for tonight's disco...

https://x.com/JeremyDeHartWX/status/2014163601712410877?s=20

GFS and EURO with new data. Thank you! 

[PackGrad05]

Mike Maze just posted the 18Z Euro and showed the "transition to rain" trend at the end of it Sunday evening.  They are leaning heavily toward the EURO.  I don't think I've seen them post or discuss the GFS or any other model this whole week.

With that said, Tuesday and Wednesday also could feature highs in the 40s.  A day or two ago it was much colder.

Can't wait to see 00Z data with HH data.

[StantonParkHoya]

Mike Maze just posted the 18Z Euro and showed the "transition to rain" trend at the end of it Sunday evening.  They are leaning heavily toward the EURO.  I don't think I've seen them post or discuss the GFS or any other model this whole week.
With that said, Tuesday and Wednesday also could feature highs in the 40s.  A day or two ago it was much colder.
Can't wait to see 00Z data with HH data.

You really are Wildre


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[Brick Tamland]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

You really are Wildre


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Might be worse.

[SEwakenosnowforu]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

You really are Wildre


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Yeah...I bet wildre was right nearly 200% of the time

[Thrasher Fan]

3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Mike Maze just posted the 18Z Euro and showed the "transition to rain" trend at the end of it Sunday evening.  They are leaning heavily toward the EURO.  I don't think I've seen them post or discuss the GFS or any other model this whole week.

With that said, Tuesday and Wednesday also could feature highs in the 40s.  A day or two ago it was much colder.

Can't wait to see 00Z data with HH data.

Hugging a single model with known CAD identifying issues is certainly a choice.