franklin NCwx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 12 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: I’m hopeful but still cautious. The confidence some very good Mets have at the chance for the low track to still be as high as TN/KY worries me. We really need a missed phase and weaker strung out system to fight that. Who woulda thought we’d be cheering for that after these last few years lol? Its been the them the last several years as the northern stream has dominated and any phasing has been late 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Looks like all the models that were further north are trending south towards what the Euro and GFS are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 11 minutes ago, Thrasher Fan said: Considerable shift south on the 18z ICON. Less moisture to work with as well. *of note* 18z only runs to 120h so not fully within the window but southerly trend none the less. The ICON ensembles do not support that far of a south jog on the OP, they are very much in line with euro and GFS. Verbatim, continues the theme of a significant winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Very stupid question and I’m still learning. If not, appropriate mods, move it to somewhere else.. my question is when I’m looking at model models and I’m looking at the 850mb temperatures and it’s less than 32° what else should I be looking at to see how warm the upper columns are. Always thought that the 850s were below 32 I was good. I live in Rockingham, North Carolina, so I’m on the southern tip of the snow. Thanks in advance for the education. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Grayman said: Very stupid question and I’m still learning. If not, appropriate mods, move it to somewhere else.. my question is when I’m looking at model models and I’m looking at the 850mb temperatures and it’s less than 32° what else should I be looking at to see how warm the upper columns are. Always thought that the 850s were below 32 I was good. I live in Rockingham, North Carolina, so I’m on the southern tip of the snow. Thanks in advance for the education. You can have warm layers anywhere from about 700mb and lower. So the best way to find out where a warm layer is, is by looking at model soundings. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 8 minutes ago, Disc said: You can have warm layers anywhere from about 700mb and lower. So the best way to find out where a warm layer is, is by looking at model soundings. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Vort coming out in GFS. Probably wont be suppressed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 18Z AIGFS much colder! It folded 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago out to 75h on 18z GFS and very slight differences. Nothing to change the course 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwp1023 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I'm trying to think of a similar storm setup but nothing like this for RDU area. 3 day event with Saturday upper teens at night and snowing. I can't remember a storm with temps that cold while it was snowing. It's always right at (or above...) freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Not much differences so far with 18z GFS but the AI trended colder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Yeah a bit north/weaker HP on the GFS so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEwakenosnowforu Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 minutes ago, mwp1023 said: I'm trying to think of a similar storm setup but nothing like this for RDU area. 3 day event with Saturday upper teens at night and snowing. I can't remember a storm with temps that cold while it was snowing. It's always right at (or above...) freezing. I live in fuquay varina and it was 22 and snowing all during last years event. The storm we had before that...2022 or 2024 also low 20s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18z GFS looks to be further south. That High really pressing down 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Out to 114h and we do get a bit of a jog south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z GFS looks to be further south. That High really pressing down Seems to be delayed with the primary impulse which has been the trend lately. I think it's going to be a good run for many 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Im starting to think northern Mississippi, N Bama, N GA through the upstate will be the sweet spot. Perfect over running event with the high working in tandem over the Midwest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago South shift but begins to turn north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Moisture influx seems increased over previous runs. Hold on to your butts here... Storm as a whole much slower to eject this run. If this where to verify, a pasting is happening on somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago North Carolina gets smoked this run! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Seems to eject the southern energy in pieces. Makes since with the strong northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago A lot of folks cash in with the 18z GFS. Taken verbatim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago This south trend is the thing of nightmares for the western NC foothill crowd. Something we’ve seen a lot the last few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, WNC_Fort said: This south trend is the thing of nightmares for the western NC foothill crowd. Something we’ve seen a lot the last few years Its been that way for years with the loss of any southern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Right where we want it 5 days out. Gives us time to adjust if the HP isn’t as strong as modeled and allows low to track further NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago A war is happening on X between NE mets hugging the Euro AI and their followers seeing anything but southern trends. interesting how this ends up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Yall need to do better about showing the whole region... 6 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Right where we want it 5 days out. Gives us time to adjust if the HP isn’t as strong as modeled and allows low to track further NW. I’m in jackpot, but we all know the rule. 4 days you don’t want to be there. At least there is a chance for most of the board. If not we will hit cliff driving thread. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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